This is an interesting match up that features the student Bears coach Lovie Smith against his mentor and friend, Colts coach Tony Dungy. It’s the first time two African-American head coaches have met in the Super Bowl.
This game will be a test of will, the Colts potent offense let by all world QB Peyton Manning and a pair of ALL PRO WR’s Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne against the leagues best defense lead by ALL PRO LB Brian Urlacher.
Special teams play a big roll in this game, as the Bears had the best special teams in the league this year and the Colts were among the worst. Both teams have good kickers so putt and kickoff return coverage will be crucial.
Colts keys to victory
Offense:
The Colts MUST run the ball effectively or it will be a long day. The Colts have shown very balanced attack throughout the playoffs. Rookie RB Joseph Addai has taken over as the starter and Dominic Rhodes has been filling in as a change-of-pace back. Addai has a combination of game speed, versatility, hands and vision among the Indianapolis backs, and Rhodes is capable of having a big game because of his straight-line speed and shiftiness.
Peyton Manning does an outstanding job of play selection based on pre-snap reads when attacking the weakness in a defense. Look for the Colts to run behind the left side of their offensive line at RDE Alex Brown, he’s the Bears only weakness on defense. If the Colts can run the ball it will open up Colts full playbook
Peyton Manning is the leagues premier passer and has an outstanding group of receivers. His past playoff shortcomings have been put aside, Manning was spectacular in the second half against New England in the AFC title game. Peyton can make all the throws, which places a lot of pressure on the Bears’ secondary. If Manning gets in a grove the Bears may have to put up 30+ points on board to pull off a win.
Defense:
The Colts, relying heavily on their attacking, up field schemes, have allowed only 73.3 yards rushing in the playoffs. Defensive coordinator Ron Meeks has placed a strong emphasis on gap control and gap integrity within his front seven and has fixed a run defense that was the poorest in the regular season.
Look for Meeks to incorporate more multiple, eight-man fronts versus the Bears’ two-back offensive sets by bringing SS Bob Sanders into the box as an extra defender. The Bears have been averaging 4.0 yards a carry, which gives them more options in their play selection on second and third downs. Look for the Colts to rely on their speed and athleticism against the run while trying to force the Bears to be one-dimensional through the air.
The must stop the run and force Bears QB Rex Grossman to make plays to beat them. Rex has been up and down all season and don’t expect that to change on Sunday.
The Bears keys to victory
Offense:
Bears offense relies on running the ball. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner will utilize RB’s Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson to take pressure off QB Grossman. Chicago runs the ball well up the middle behind an offensive line that averages only 305 pounds. The Bears may be a little undersized but are they are athletic and understand using leverage, angles and body position. They are very well schooled.
Look for the Bears to stay balanced on downs with heavy run tendencies and will look to attack the Colts defense by attacking behind the right side the offensive line. Nobody has been able to stop the Bears running game all season and I expect them to have success on Sunday.
The Bears need a solid running game to open up their downfield passing attack against a Colts secondary that can be exploited. QB Rex Grossman has had success with play action passing all season long. He’s an accurate deep ball passer and has hit WR Bernard Berrian for long TD passes all season long. However, Grossman has struggled with his confidence lately and has not been very good on third down.
Protection is the key to Grossman’s confidence; look for Rod Turner to get Rex into a rhythm with short high percentage passes. Rex must avoid early game changing mistakes to keep this game close.
Defense:
Bears defensive coordinator Ron Rivera must find a way to attack the Colts blocking schemes. He will use multiple seven-man fronts to try to confuse Peyton Manning. Chicago will also use a lot of nickel personnel groupings to match up with Indy’s spread offense. The will keep an eye on Colts TE Dallas Clark; he’s been killing teams in the playoffs this year.
The Bears defensive line is led by LDT Ian Scott and NT Tank Johnson. They must fill the gaps and move the pile back to disrupt the Colts blocking patterns. Colts rely on heavily on timing and when they are not being disrupted they don’t lose. The Bears know this so expect all pro MLB Brian Urlacher to spy either RB coming out of the backfield to try and take away Manning’s safety net dump offs.
The Bears must find a way to pressure Manning in the pocket without giving up big plays downfield. Manning struggles when defenses disrupt him by not allowing him to be comfortable in the pocket and by playing physical on the outside to throw off the timing and rhythm of his receivers. If they can pressure Manning they can win the game.
Current odds:
Indianapolis Colts -7 -105 and the total is 48 – Click here to view live odds
Pick:
Take the Colts -7 and bet and the over 48 points in a 2-team Parlay. $100 bet wins back $260
The monkey will jump from Manning’s back onto Rex’s back after this one. I expect the Colts to pass the ball and the Bears to run the ball effectively all game long. The QB who has the better game will prevail. Manning is light years ahead of Grossman.
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