On Saturday May 3rd the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place at the fabled Twin Spires of Church Hill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.

This year the field is even more difficult to predict than usual, the odds do not list any horse as a standout favorite but if you have to name a favorite just for shiggles then its a coin flip between Big Brown and Colonel John, with Pyro in close 3rd.  Colonel John is already in Louisville and his practice runs are making the so called experts get their futures money in quick as the dirt track does not seem to be a problem for the turf runner.  Big Brown should be at the top of your list based on past performance but we all know that history is merely that up to the sound of the gun and opening of the gates.  Tradionally the top 3 favorite horses should be in an automatic Boxed Trifecta on your list of bets, but then it is always wise to throw down some W/P/S on a couple long shots.  If your a little fuzzy on all the horse betting terminology then have no fear as Gamblers Palace is pleased to offer a virtual dictionary of betting terms so that you can make the most informed wager.  As of right now futures odds to win the Kentucky Derby are being offered in the sports book live odds section, once we get to race day and all the qualifying is over and positions are announced then every type of bet will be offered in the Horsebook.  Also don’t be afraid to get a little crazy because even if you get hosed and none of your ponies come in Gamblers Palace is going to give you back 8% of all your loses through their patented Horse Rebate Program.  Heres a list of the top 10 horses with their odds to win the Derby as of this moment:
Big Brown +225
Colonel John +400
Pyro +500
Court Vision +1600
Denis of Cork +1600
Monba +1600
Z Fortune +1600
Gayego +1600
Adriano +1700
Tale of Ekati +1800

Gamblers Palace will also be offering Prop bets on the Derby, heres just a few to perk your intrest:

Number of the Kentucky Derby Winner
Odd Number -115
Even Number -115

Starting Gate Position of Kentucky Derby Winner
Gates 1-5  -110
Gates 6-10 +125
Gates 11-15 +270
Gates 16-20 +270

Winning Time of Kentucky Derby Winner
Under 2.01.30 +115
Over 2.01.30 -165 

As for my picks its really hard to decide, and theres a couple reasons why, 1 the qualifyers are still going all week and that long shot might not make it, and 2 all odds are dictated by the paramutual which will be changing about every 5 seconds.  So I’ll make it easy for you: Boxed Trifecta of the top 3 favorites, W/P/S on the absolute favorite and then about 5 bets to of $2 to win on the each of the last 5 long shots out of the 10 that qualify.

So that being said, get your Mint Julip ready and your obsenely ugly hats out and enjoy the race, this year should promise to be one hell of a race.

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This Saturday April 19th for the first time ever the UFC will be holding a grand event in Montreal, Quebec.  It was one year ago when Matt “The Terror” Serra defeated Georges “Rush” St. Pierre by knockout to claim the UFC Welter weight championship.  Since then GSP has been climbing back to the top and now the interim title holder will square off again against Serra to settle once and for all who is the king of the Welter wieghts.  Many said that the first fight was a fluke and Serra caught the lanky French Canadian with a lucky punch, the odds makers surely feel the same way as they have GSP as HUGE favorite at -480 (risk $480 to win $100) .  Besides the main event the night will also feature former Middleweight champ Rich “Ace” Franklin taking on the grappling master Travis “The Serial Killer” Lutter. Below are the all matchups of the night along with the moneyline betting spreads and my picks.

Welter Weight Championship
Matt Serra +330
Georges St. Pierre -480

My Pick:  GSP is the bigger guy and he was a huge favorite in the first fight and now that hes fighting in front of the home crowd you can bet hes got all the motivation he needs, but at -480 its a suckers bet and the bookmakers want you to leave this alone.  The value is on Serra at more than 3 to 1 on your money it has to be the play, but it doesn’t have to be your regular size bet, remember anything can happen and Serra has beaten this guy before, not to mention hes a French Canadian and it brings a smile to my face when I think about a Guido from New Jersey knocking the big guy out.

Middleweights
Travis Lutter +235
Rich Franklin -360

My Pick:  Franklin is still just as tough as he wa when he ruled the middleweight division, but this Lutter guy has got my attention, his last loss was against Anderson Silva so thats understandable, but the guy is just an armbar specialists and I have seen Franklin get reckless at times which could lead to the upset if Lutter can get him on the ground.  Again the favorite is just too expensive plus if Franklin stays on his feet its going to be a long night for Lutter because he will probably get pummeled.

Light Heavyweights
Charles McCarthy +225
Michael Bisping -350

My Pick:  This is one of those fights where I will advocate laying down the big money for a small comeback.  Bisping is a tough SOB and is well on his way to getting that title match with Rampage at 205 lbs.  Bisping is going to destroy this guy without question, I actually feel sorry for McCarthy he can not be feeling good about this fight he lacks the experience needed and just doesn’t look to form. Lay down the big money on Bisping its the surest bet of the night. 

Stay tuned for fight odds on the rest of the nights bouts.

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Saturday April 12th at Atlantic City, N.J. (HBO): Miguel Cotto vs. Alfonso Gomez, 12 rounds, for Cotto’s WBA welterweight title.

Many will remember Alfonso Gomez from the first and ultimately the best season of ESPN’s “The Contender” where he was a fan favorite and fierce competitor.  Since his appearance Gomez has been making a name for himself and at 18-3-2 with 8 KO’s hes has worked his way up the ladder to challenge Cotto 31-0 with 25 KO’s for the WCB Welterweight Title.  Its not going to be any picnic for Gomez going up against a more experienced and most would say harder hitting Cotto.  Zab Judah and Shane Mosley found out the hard way that Cotto is not to be underestimated after convincing whoopings that he put on both of them in his last 2 fights.  Regardless Gomez has the heart to make it a great fight and I doubt he will let us down.  Heres the current moneyline odds on the fight:

Miguel Cotto -1225 (risk $1225 to win $100)
Alfonso Gomez +700 (risk $100 to win $700)

Total Rounds over 9.5 +135 (risk $100 to win $135)
Total Rounds under 9.5 -175 (risk $175 to win $100)   

My Pick:  In this case its obviously foolish to take the favorite, no one is going to bet on a line that high, especially in boxing where a lucky kidney punch can end it before it gets going.  The play is Gomez +700 but not for your usual $100 bet, more like $50.  I also like the Over 9.5 rounds +135, I know Cotto hits hard but Gomez is kinda like Arturo Gatti in that you just can’t put him down, he takes a beating real good but won’t be knocked out. By the way Gomez destroyed Gatti last year and actually did knock him out so the previous statement may be a little vexing…

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Its the beginning of April and that means a few things: 1. The NCAA March Madness Champion will be crowned soon. 2. The NBA playoffs are starting. 3 MLB is starting to pick up steam 4. Who could forget about the Masters….and I think thats it right?  Oh wait….I guess the NHL playoffs are starting and we won’t have a Stanley Cup winner until June.  I mean I’m really the only person that yawns really loud whenever I think of the NHL Playoffs?  It just seems like it lasts forever and I can only hold so much intrest over a period of time, but 2 months! C’mon… Anyways here are the moneyline betting spreads and totals for the 1st games of the 1st round:

Ottawa  +160
Pittsburgh  -190  5.5

NY Rangers  +110
New Jersey  -130  4.5

Colorado  +115
Minnesota  -135  5

Calgary  +165
San Jose  -195  5

Nashville  +220
Detroit  -260  5

Boston  +170
Montreal  -200  5

Dallas  +145
Anaheim  -165 5

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It’s Sunday morning and I’m hungover and a little disappointed.  1. I didn’t get to see Memphis put the whooping on UCLA as I predicted seeing how they just aren’t ready yet and this has been a long time coming for Memphis who were not going to be denied by a buncha pretty boys from southern California, and 2. I didn’t get to see UNC totally fall apart against those scrubs from Kansas thus ending any remote chance that I could have won my pools(DAMNIT!!!) although I will say is that its a fitting end to the season, total blowouts!  Now as for the reason I was not witness to this very undramatic display of talents is because my boy Tommy got married last night, congratulations!  and needless to say everyone got wasted and jumped in the pool.   Now down to business:

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
9:15pm est April 7th, Alamo Dome, San Antonio, TX

Kansas
Memphis -1.5  145.5 Over/Under

My Pick: I read a review of the UNC/Kansas game and it sounds like UNC in all their arrogance went out there and didn’t take Kansas seriously until they were down by 20!(Idgets) So the point is that I don’t think Kansas is as good as UNC made them look.  The spread is tight at 1.5 and I think its actually a bargan, I think that will move up to -2.5 by tomarrow night, take Memphis and give the points right now! before it moves up on you.  Memphis is gonna win it all and I’m the only one in my pool that picked them and I still won’t win because of UNC losing. Poetic justice I guess……

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