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New England Patriots vs New York Giants
University of Phoenix Stadium Glendale, AZ
February 3rd 6:30pm est.

Spread:  New England -12
Over/Under Total:  53.5

First of all, this game needs no hype!  The Pats are 18-0 trying for a perfect season of 19-0 which has never been done in the history of the NFL and second the Giants led by 4th year QB lil Eli manning have won 3 playoff games in a row on the road to make it 10 straight road wins!  It will be a rematch of week 17 for the Pats and Giants except this time around we will be seeing a very different NY Giants team.  In week 17 the Pats traveled to the meadowlands and were 13 point favorites, in the 3rd quarter it was the Giants who had the lead and looked as if they would end the Pats flawless season right then and there, but alas Tom Brady and Co. came out in the 4th quarter and won the decision by a mere field goal, that unto itself was a moral victory for the G-Men and now they will get a second chance to pull off the upset and in front of 40 million people at Superbowl 42.  The entire Giants team have become so focused that even the Eli critics are taking a look at the moneyline payoff should Manning and the Giants come out and stun the Patriots.  There is no doubt that this will be one of those superbowls for the ages and no one will be disappointed with the performances other than the loser of this great american tradition.

New York Giants keys to victory:  The G-Men have got to stay focused!!!  They are riding a tidal wave of momentum right now and should and are feeling good about themselves and their team as a whole.  Sam Madison, R.W. McQuarters and the defensive secondary have got to be more physical, in the NFC championship game we saw alot of the Giants secondary getting manhandled by Green Bay receivers, this cannot happen against the Pats, Brady is way too good at exposing weak coverage they have to bump these guys off the line and I mean hard!!!  Strahan, Tuck and the defensive front 4 will also need to contain the run and not let Maroney get into a rythem, while also keeping the pressure on Brady and get him to throw a couple picks as he is very well known for doing.  The linebackers have got to keep there heads about them and watch the inside zone 5 yards in front of the line of scrimmage where Wes Welker likes to hang out and turn 5 yard slants into 15 yard gains, he will burn the Giants all day long if they let him.  On offense it is all about clock control for the Giants.  The 2 pronged attack of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will have to keep the Patriots defense guessing and keep the ball moving steadily, they will need to utilize the ground and pound effort to tire the Pats D and catch the Pats secondary off guard with a long bomb to Burress who will be a key to their success using his big frame to get to those passes that only he can reach.  Eli will need to continue whatever his routine has been throughout the playoffs and try not to get too fancy with it, just consistant ball movement and no turnovers and he will be just fine, the running game can take the pressure off him while his receivers get open allowing him to make smart decisions and prolong drives.  The absolute worst thing that he could do is go in and try to reinvent or tweak his game even slightly,”if it aint broke don’t fix it.”  Also his receivers need to stop dropping the ball on him, Eli has taken unjust critisim and pressure this year and much of it had to do with his own guys throwing him under the bus, if they stay focused on the task at hand and everyone does their job then I really like the Giants chances.  One last note, Lawrence Tynes cannot shank easy field goals in this one, because the Pats don’t just give away opportunites like bazooka joe bubble gum so make them all count!

New England Patriots keys to victory:  The Pats need to come down a level as far as confidence goes, there is a fine line between confidence and cockiness which is what gave them a scare in week 17, they went into NY thinking that is was a bye game and they almost got caught slippin.  On defense, Bruschi and Seau will have to be the leaders and use their veteran experience to keep the Pats D calm and calculating.  Lately they have been soft on the run and this will have to change when taking on the Giant (literally) Brandon Jacobs who will be looking to run right through them also the front 4 has got to find a way to get pressure on Eli and force risky throws, this will be tough because the Giants O line has been getting progressivily better with every game and Manning is getting very comfortable in the pocket and the Pats D line will have to change that.  The Pats secondary led by Rodney Harrison will have to keep their attention on Plaxico Burress who thumped the Green Bay secondary of pro-bowlers Atari Bigby and Al Harris in the NFC championship game.  At 6 foot 1 inch Harrison is the only guy even close to Burress’ 6 foot 5 inch frame and it will take everything they have to keep him covered.  The Pats offense is still clicking on all cylinders and they need to continue to spread it out both in the air and on the ground. RB Kevin Faulk has proven to be valuable utility player both elusive on the ground and has sure hands that do not drop passes, basically hes a running back with the hands of a wide receiver and he will be need to be used alot in this game.  I wouldn’t expect Maroney to run that much on the Giants D line, but hes a good blocker and his mere presence on the field will be enough to keep the Giants weary.  Perhaps the most valuable tool the Pats have is the empty backfield formation and Brady’s ability to find a WR no matter what, they will be attacking the NY secondary and testing their abilities with the best receiving corp in the league, I definantly do not envy the Giants secondary.

My Pick:  I have been saying this throughout the playoffs and towards the last few weeks of the regular season and that is that the Pats do not cover the spreads anymore and are doing just enough to win.  It’s not that they have changed their game plan or decided to stop running up the scores on opponents, but rather that the other teams are figuring them out and the Pats are no longer this offensive enigma that can’t be stopped.  The Giants seem to be completely focused and their unlikely leader Eli Manning is taking it all with a grin and not letting the hype and pressure get to him, he is making smart choices in the poket and his players are stepping up to support him.  The entire team beleives they can do it and there is an attitude of calmness that is reassuring to me.  I think the spread NE -12 is waaaaay too high and based on the sole fact that its the 18-0 New England Patriots without much reagrd to their opponents abilities and acheivements this season.  If after beating the Pack in sub zero weather at the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field wasn’t enough to make you believe then I’m not sure what will.  The play is without a doubt the Giants plus the 12 points!!! Give lil Eli a chance you won’t be sorry and this will by no means be a blowout game, both teams will be putting up points and thats why I also like the total going over 53.5 points which isn’t really that much, I’m thinking a score of 24-30 something along those lines.  This is going to be an all out war of back and forth leads and possibly a decision that comes down to the last drive of the game. As Terrell Owens would say, “get your popcorn ready”. 

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It’s a sad day as another famous person passes away. Heath Ledger an Australian striving actor at the peak of his career was announced dead on Tuesday afternoon and was found dead in his New York apartment around 2:30 pm. He was only 28 years old and had a 2 year old daughter “Matilda”. His former fiancée Michelle Williams was in sweden at the time of the news and was devastated by the news, His housekeeper had found him at the edge of his bed unconscious and not responding. She called 911 and he was already dead when they arrived and found some sleeping pills nearby. They are saying it will take about 10 days to complete the investigation and an autopsy is being performed to see exactly what the cause of his death was!! He was best known in his amazing role in “Brokeback Mountain” with handsome guy Jack Gyllenhaal “who is now dating Resse Witherspoon”. He also stared in the Patriot with Mel Gibson and did a great job in that movie. “10 things I hate about you”, Lords of the Dogtown. He had some files in the works “Mannoth” and upcoming one where he plays the joker in Batman returns. Ledgers personal acting life came with stress and anxiety and at times would only get 2 hours a sleep a day and said in one interview that it was okay if I died because I am inside my daughter. He had made a decision about 4 years ago in stop being led by managers/producers and do his own thing. In all his roles he played in he gave it is all and did great work. Everyone that saw him around his SoHo Neighborhood, with his daughter said he was always so happy and having ice cream with his daughter, but no one ever knows the reality of a star life behind closed doors. I loved all his movies and he will be missed a lot. This just came in according to authorities, the autopsy that was completed on him was inconclusive and additional testing will be needed to determine the exact cause of his death and will know more after 10 days. I will keep you posted as more unfolds!!

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New York Giants 23, Green Bay Packers 20

I was totally wrong on this game last week, I had the Pack wiping the floor with Eli and the Giants defense.  The Giants surprised everyone with a win in Green Bay and what would be the 3rd coldest game in NFl history at -3 degrees and -24 degrees with windchill.

The Giants defense came out and manhandled the Pack in the 1st quarter.  The front 4 led by Michael Strahan was keeping constant pressure on Favre, and the secondary led by veteran Sam Madison who had just returned from an injury after being out of the game last week against Dallas held tight coverage on the Green Bay receivers.  The offense was clicking on all cylinders right from the get go and there was an even balance of running from Brandon Jacobs who finished with 67 yards on 21 carries and 1 TD and Ahmad Bradshaw came in later in the second half to completely throw the Packer D off guard and garner 63 yards on 16 carries and a TD to boot!  Not to mention he had at least a 60 yard run called back because of a stupid holding call.  In the air Eli Manning was playing his best, he did get punished by his own receivers yet again as Toomer dropped a crucial drive ending pass as well as a few other instances where the ball hit his guys in the hands and they got scared, but other than that you couldn’t have asked for a better performance out of him especially in those cold fridgid conditions, he ended the game going 21 for 40 attempts for 254 yards and 0 TD’s.  One key factor to the Giants win was the emergence of Plaxico Burress who up until now had been a dud in the playoffs, he stepped up and got open using his big frame to box out the corners and make the plays that counted.  After last weeks weak performance of 1 reception for 5 yards against Dallas, Burress finished the game with 11 receptions for 154 yards!  The Giants had actually already won the game a couple times but thanks to kicker Lawrence Tynes who choked twice near the end of the game and shanked both chances to put the Pack away they headed into overtime where Tynes got a chance at redemption and nailed a 47 yarder to end the game.  This was definantly a team effort put on by the Giants of New York and with this win set an NFL record of 10 straight road wins, they will definantly need this momentum going into the superbowl and watch alot and I mean ALOT!!! of game tape from their last regular season game against the Pats in which they only lost by 3 points.

The Pack seemed discombobulated in the 1st quarter and almost hindered by the -1 degrees at the start of the game and it would only get colder.  Green Bay was utterly shut down in the 1st quarter as Favre and company could not get into a rythem and were forced into 3 and out after 3 and out.  Finally in the second quarter the football gods smiled on Brett Favre (pause, imagining the football angels looking down from the clouds with that “awwwwwww” sound bite)  who found a wide open Donald Driver deep down the field and would score on an official 90 yard pass.  The Pack would march down the field again in the second but would be held to a field goal.  By this time the temp had reached -24 windchill, but still the Gigantes were looking solid on both sides of the ball, something that I doubt the Pack really expected and kept the pressure on Farve.  In the second half the Pack seemed to fall apart with dumb penalties that allowed the Giants to keep drives going as well as getting all they could handle from the Giants ground game.  The Pack could not get any kind of drive going as they went 1-10 on 3rd down and Favre was forced to go to the long ball to make things happen and the full force of, “The Gambler” took effect, at first it worked as Favre found Donald Lee in the endzone, but then things started getting shaky.  With the score tied at 20 in the 4th quarter the Giants had a chance to end it, Tynes shanked it away giving Favre another chance for glory, but alas the Giants contained everything they had to offer forcing an overtime sudden death.  The Packers won the toss, but on the second play fo the drive Favre surprised no one by throwing an INT giving the Giants excellent field position and the chance for a game winning field goal.  Favre would finish the game 19 for 35 for 236 yards with 2 TD’s and 2 costly INT’s.

The cold was a major factor in this one and you gotta wonder if it was getting to Favre’s bones regardless it was a great game and the Giants earned every bit of it.  Now Eli will travel to the desert in Arizona to take on the unbeaten Patriots and carve out a little piece of history for himself no longer in the shadow of big brother Peyton.  The current spread on Superbowl XLII is New England -12 over/under total 53.5.

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San Diego 12, New England 21 

The Bookmakers had it right placing the spread at NE -14, I hope everyone followed my pick and bet the Chargers plus the points. 

The Chargers were all banged up and it showed.  LT ended up with only 2 carries for 5 yards and did not play at all after the 1st quarter and QB Phillip Rivers was clearly not at 100% as he went 19 for 37 for 211 yards and 2 INT’s.  Rivers had no where near the mobility he usually has and the Pats defense exploited it constantly forcing Rivers to make gambles with his throws.  Vincent Jackson definantly stepped up with 6 receptions for 93 yards and was open in the endzone to give them the lead, but Rivers couldn’t find him.  The Charger defense is what kept them in the game as they picked off Brady 3 times in the game with one coming in the red zone compliments of Antonio Cromartie thus sparring the Chargers an even deeper hole than they were in.  Shawn Merriman and the front 4 kept the pressure on Brady and forced more 3 and outs then the Pats were used to which in the end merely slowed them down, but was not enough to get the job done.

The Patriots got off to a slow start and seemed out of sync.  They could not get a rythem going and it seemed like the Chargers D was in control.  Then they unleashed the wraith of Lawrence “Jabroney” Maroney who started finding holes and getting 1st downs eventually leading to a 1 yard TD run to cap off his drive in the second quarter and give the Pats the lead, he would finish the game with 25 carries for 122 yards and 1 TD.  Randy Moss was uncharacteristically quiet this game with only 1 reception for 18 yards and 1 carry for 8, but you have to consider that he was getting the brunt of the attention from the San Diego secondary so I wouldn’t read too much into it.  Brady finally got into a rythem in the late in the 2nd quarter and the Pats were doing that thing they do when they look like they convert at will and there is nothing you can do to stop them, this lead to a long time consuming drive and a 12 yard TD pass to Jabar Gaffney, Brady would finish the game going 22 out 33 for 209 yards with 2 TD’s and 3 INT’s.  The star of the game was no doubt RB Kevin Faulk, but not for his fancy foot work it was for his sure hands in the air.  Faulk continously made great plays turning 5 yard slants or flat routes into 10 yard gains, he finished with 8 receptions for 82 yards, the Charger defense could never cover him and he was always the easy out for Brady keeping the risky throws from being the only option.  The Pats defense was allowing long time consuming drives from the Chargers and and pretty much got tossed around the field, that is until they got into the redzone where they seemed to excel at stalemating the Chargers holding them to 4 field goals the entire game and rejecting every single redzone campaign that San Diego could muster.  With this win the Patriots advance with an 18-0 record something that has never been accomplished before and they will look to make it 19-0 in 2 weeks.

The Chargers made a valient try at it,  but in the end the injuries to most of their star players was too much to recover from and Brady and Company was too much to handle.  The Patriots will continue their run at perfection as they head to Arizona to take on the NY Giants.  The opening line is New England -12.5 with a total of 53.5.  Stay tuned for a Superbowl XLII preview as well as my pick for the big dance.

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The Seahawks let me down again and I don’t think the absence of class 9 snow storm would have really mattered, the Pack is hungry and they mean business.  Brett Favre is playing with such inspiration that he has everyone on that team believing that they are gonna win the Supebowl.  Ryan Grant showed pose and resilence after fumbling twice int he first 3 minutes of the game and came back under those slippery, wet, snowy, blizzard god awful seen from a bizzaro world hell and ran for 201 yards and 3 TD’s to redeem himself and carved out a little piece of his own history with the Green Bay Packers.  It looked like the Pack was scoring at will and the Seattle defense could do nothing about it, six straight possessions and six straight TD’s!!! very frustrating for a Seattle fan as I was feeling your pain as well.  The Giants had their own score to settle last week when they traveled to the Dallas for the divisional playoff, the Giants had already lost twice this year to the Cowboys and you had to think that maybe 3rd times a charm, at least I did.   Sure enough the Giants came out and just played solid football they controlled the clock and didn’t make too many mistakes.  Eli kept his cool and the offense responded by holding the pocket and catching the ball, Amani Toomer surprised everyone with 80 yards receiving and 2 TD’s.  The Giants collectivly only had 230 total yards compared to the Cowboys 336, but the Giants just played smash mouth football, controlled the clock and didn’t turn the ball over and slowly but surely the Cowboys found themselves going 3 and out and then running out of time in the end.  Now the Giants will have to travel to the frozen tundra of hell Lambeau Field and take on the Pack who show no sign of slowing down.

NY Giants
Green Bay  -7  42  

NY Giants keys to victory:  The last time the Giants played the Pack was in week 2 in which they were beaten at home 35-13.  It’s a new day in the Big Apple and the Giants are a new team, the defense is hurt but still shutting down offenses and the offense is healthy and clicking on all cylinders.  The biggest thing the Giants have going for them right is their momentum and they will need all of it, the 2 pronged tandum of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw has to be effective and find holes in that stingy Packer front 4 and put together long time consuming drives on the ground it won’t be easy but it has to be done.  The Giants O line will have to continue to provide good protection to Eli who really doesn’t like getting hit and that will mean picking up the blitz.  The WR’s have to catch the ball which had been an issue throughout the season (dropped balls) and placed unjust pressure on Eli, also Plaxico Burress who had just 1 reception for 5 yards against the Cowboys has got to get open more, he is the big guy on that team and needs to step it up if they want to compete with Favre and Co.  The defense has got to be persistant and the front 4 have got to shut down Ryan Grant keep the pressure on Favre who is known for throwing INT’s quite frequently.  Sam Madison needs to get healthy and get back in there, he’s the vet and they will need his leadership, plus there is a good chance Farve could serve him up an INT.

Green Bay keys to victory:  Green Bay needs to open it up more and get the pass in the mix, last week the Packers rushed for more yards then they threw for and I know that alot of that had to do with the weather, but I don’t think Ryan Grant can run on the Giants like he did against Seattle.  Farve needs to get incorporate the entire offense to keep the Giants D guessing and hes got the talent at hand to do it, they are the second youngest team in the league, but those guys are playing like they have been on the same team since Favre was drafted,(alot of these guys were still playing with G.I. Joes when Favre was drafted).  Anyways, another thing the Pack has to do is quit turning the ball over, they were almost derailed last week after Seattle was up 14-0 after 2 Ryan Grant fumbles, everybody needs to hold on to the ball and Favre needs to make smart choices in the pocket and not gamble so much just cause he’s Brett Favre.  The defense will need to take away the run from the Giants and force them to throw, this means holding Jacobs to 2 yards a carry instead of 4 and keeping an eye on the elusive Ahmad Bradshaw.  If the defensive front 4 can keep pressure on Eli I’m sure he will make a mistake(he gets flustered easily). 

MY PICK:  The Pack looked tough last week and Brett Favre looks determined, playing at home just adds to the flavor. I think the Giants are a greatly improved team and Eli is finally showing some consistancy and not to mention they seem to win every game on the road, but I think they are only knocking on the door this year and will not be able to keep up with Favre this year it’s going to be a very defensive dominated game and calling Lambeau Field home has great advantages.  The play is the Pack giving the 7 points and I like the under 42 points.

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Who would have thought that San Diego could go into Indy and beat them without the help of LT and Phillip Rivers in the second half?…Not me!  Peyton Manning had a couple of INT’s that really were not his fault and as predicted the Charger run D held Addai to limited yards.  The San Diego offensive line really stepped up and gave Rivers and Volek the time they needed to make good decisions.  Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers helped take the pressure off the run game which Indy had shut down and overall the defense played very well.  I hope everyone followed my Jaguars plus the 13 points pick I had last week as David Garrard came in and did the absolute best he could with what he had to work with and maintained the tempo of the game until the 3rd quarter when the Jags D decided to start blitzing allowing Wes Welker to catch short pass after short pass.  It was as if Brady could just convert plays at will and there was nothing the defense could about it…very scary.    So the matchup is set and odds are out San Diego will be fighting jet lag as they travel to New England and play for a spot in the big dance.

San Diego
New England  -14.5  49

San Diego keys to victory:  The Defense has got to show up even more than they did against the Colts.  The Chargers D allowed Peyton Manning to throw for 402 yards last week and if they let Brady do the same then it will be a long night for the Chargers.  They did hold Addai and in fact the entire team to just 44 total yards of rushing and will have to do it again against Maroney and Faulk.  Now heres the kicker, when Brady goes empty backfield and has 5 targets to throw to how do you stop him? They have to worry more about the zone and even though Shawn Merriman will be chomping at the bit to sack Brady he will need to control himself and focus on covering the flat and let Stephen Cooper and Antonio Cromartie do what they do which is knock down passes and make interceptions which Brady has been known to throw as he gambles with passes again again and its only because he has the best receiving corp in the league that he can get away with it.  After the 1st half LT was still walking around on the sideline with a bruised knee and it is unclear what his status is as of this posting, but if the Chargers want to win then they will definantly need LT in the game if for nothing more than a distraction for the NE defense, LT hasn’t put up big numbers lately, but his presence has to be accounted for on every play when hes in the game and this can open up the pass quite nicely.  Phillip Rivers was also sidelined for the 2nd half and his injury is also unclear at this time, but Rivers will be key and they need him back badly to lead the offense I give credit to Volek for not losing the game, but he is not the starter and you can’t expect him to go into New England after playing just once all year and think that hes not wetting the bed just a little bit.  Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers have to be the stars in this game and they have got to find ways to get open on the deep ball because you can bet that Moss and Gaffney will be doing it for Brady.  If the Chargers want to win they have to regroup and keep this momentum going otherwise it could be a long night.

New England keys to victory:  The Patriots need to come out and test the Chargers secondary right off the bat and I expect they will do just that, when Brady is in an empty backfield he is almost unstoppable.  They started off slow against the Jags D who surprisingly held them to just 2 TD’s in the 1st half last week and this was due mainly to play calling which was aimed at getting the Jags focused on the run which they was only modestly successful, in the 2nd half it was all air.  The San Diego defense seems more well rounded than the Jags so I think the Pats will be mixing it up alot more by sending Maroney and Faulk into the flat alot and then on 3rd and long you will see a 60 yard pass to Moss.  Brady can control the tempo simply by excercising his little buddy Wes Welker who is gold on the 5 yard slant routes which he then routinely turns into 10 – 15 yard plays.  On defense the Pats have some choices to make and it will all depend on who is at the Q for San Diego, if its Rivers then I think they need to stick to Cover 2 and not get burned by Vincent Jackson, if its Volek then I say bring the blitz all day every play!  Junior Seau and Teddy Bruschi will need to be leaders here and keep the defense under control and not get too excited because that leads to emotion and emotion leads to blown coverages.

MY PICK:  It all depends on the injury status of LT and Phillip Rivers, but at this time the assumption is that they will play so with San Diego getting a more than 2 TD cushion it would seem that the defense could keep them in it long enough to at least cover the spread.  I have no doubt that the Patriots will win, but when you consider that they haven’t covered the spread in the last 5 games I think you have take the points on this one, the Chargers have been critized the whole year and alot of it was for good measure but they are no joke and after beating the defending champs using their backup QB and RB’s I think that credit is due, take the points and the over!  

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Gamblers Palace is pleased to be offering a special free play promotion for the 2008 NFL Conference Championships to all new and current clients!!!  Heres how it breaks down; starting on Monday January 14th any new or current client who deposits a minimum of $100 via a person to person deposit method will be eligable for a choice of either a $15 free play prop bet on either championship game as well as a $25 free play 3 team parlay combining both game spreads and totals or a 20% cash deposit bonus, either way your getting something free!  All you do after making your deposit is contact one of their customer service representatives via live chat or at 1-800-535-8108 and tell them JR sent you and they will take care of everything, just let them know what plays you want to make with the free play and your all set, but please have your plays in mind before calling.  This promotion will only be valid through January 20th before kickoff so get your account signed up and get your deposit in.  Below you will find a link to my picks for both games.

NFC Championship Pick

AFC Championship Pick

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Jacksonville surprised Pittsburgh last week and thumped them for 3 quarters, but then let Big Ben stage a comeback in the 4th but in the end it was to no avail and the Steelers fell 31-29.  The Jags have been underestimated the whole year and now are showing everyone they have what it takes to get to the big game.  San Diego almost repeated their playoff curse against the Titans, but in the end LT and Phillip Rivers found a way to pull off the W with a 17-6 drubbing.

Saturday

Jacksonville
New England  -13  47.5

Jacksonville keys to victory:  Defense Defense Defense.  The Jags D has been key to their success all year long and if they watch film from the Pats last 3 games they will find the holes in the NE offense that will keep them struggling.  I don’t think the Jags should worry so much about the pressure on Brady and instead try to contain the zone 10 yards in front of the line of scrimmage where Wes Welker is so successful.  The Jags run D is superb and I have no doubt they can shut down Maroney.  The run game will be pivotal and at 34 Fred Taylor is still going strong and for much of the season carried the Jags, he will be complimented by Maurice Jones-Drew who is doing his part, but not contributing as much as he should, this will have to change!  David Garrard will have to keep the tempo of the of the game steady and do his best to keep the NE offense off the field by sustaining long time consuming drives and make smart choices when he throws, just one turnover could be all the Pats need to get the momentum going so he will have to take care of the ball.  Reggie Williams can make it easy for Garrard if they find the favorable matchups and take advantage of them.

New England keys to victory:  As the spread implies -13 the bookies have no doubt that the Pats are going to come out strong, and they will if a couple things happen. 1, the defense has got to put a stop to the run and force Garrard to throw the ball. 2, the defense has got to get Brady out on the field and if they let the Jags develop a run game and long drives then it will be tougher for Brady and co. to get a rythem going.  Once Brady gets on the field he will need to establish the spread offense and get everyone involved and with talent like Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney, Ben Watson, Donte Stallworth and last, but certainly not least Randy Moss he should have no problem finding a target.  Lawrence Maroney is doing a great job as a both a blocking back and in short yardage situations and I assume he will assume the same role, but more as a blocker as the Jags run D is very stingy and will most likely put the stop on him.  Brady is clutch in the playoffs and he gets the job done so if they continue with the same game plan as all season they should have no problem executing at home.

My Pick:  The Patriots at home are very tough to handle, but if anyone can handle it I think the Jags can.  The -13 points is waaay too much especially when you consider that the Pats have only been winning by a margin of 3 points in the last 4 games.  Don’t underestimate the Jags, take the 13 points and the over 47.5!  The Pats will win, but they will not cover.

Sunday

San Diego
Indianapolis  -8.5  46.5

San Diego keys to victory:  The Chargers have got to get the running game going and let LT do his thing.  LT was held to just 42 yards on 21 carries, this is unexceptable especially against the Colts.  The San Diego O line will have to step up and get physical or this could be over soon.  Phillip Rivers came alive at the end of the game last week and showed some flashes of life hooking up with both Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson in the endzone near the end of the game, he will have to find them alot more this week if they want to win also with a questionable Antonio Gates the ball will have to be spread out alot more and someone will have to step up in the redzone and make a play.  The defense held the Titans to only 6 points, but with Lendale White running most of the day it didn’t give the Charger secondary alot practice which they will need to get ready for Peyton and the high flying high octane offense. The Charger run D was excellent and if they can keep it up and hold Joseph Addai to minimal production they can keep the Colts from gaining a large lead.

Indianapolis keys to victory:  Peyton and Co. need I say more? Manning will no doubt look to expose a weakend San Diego secondary and with Marvin Harrison healthy it could be a game full of fireworks and long bombs down to Harrison and Holt, while Addai keeps the D guessing on the ground.  The Indy D has been playing tough all year and I expect the pressure to be put on Rivers ALOT!  I doubt they have much respect for his long ball so Indy should be playing alot of man coverage and bringing the saftey blitz.  If Indy starts airing it out and is successful then I think the pressure to catchup may be the killer for Rivers so Peyton will just play his game and let San Diego self destruct.

My Pick:  Indy at home is tough and the Chargers are not producing big enough numbers to make me think they can keep up with Peyton and Co.  Only if the Chargers O line gets more physical and makes room for LT to do his thing can these guys be successful and I just haven’t seen it yet, so I gotta take the Colts and give the 8.5 points, they are too tough at home and have waay too many weapons.  I also like the under 46.5 as I think that the Indy D holds LT and forces Rivers to throw to guys that Bob Sanders covers, NOT GOOD.

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I went 4-0 on my picks last week for all the skeptics out there, check for yourself…  Anyways, Seattle started slow against the Skins but then punished them in the 4th quarter to lock it up 35-14, and the Giants continued their rythem and upset the Bucs on their hometurf in a convincing 24-14 win.  It was a huge weekend for the bettors and heartbreak for the bookies so lets take a look at this weeks matchups and break it down.

Saturday

Seattle
Green Bay  -8  40

Seattle keys to victory:  The defense will have to continue to be dominant, they only allowed Clinton Portis to rush for 52 yards last week and they will have to shut down the run against Ryan Grant and keep the pressure on Brett Favre who is known to serve up INT’s on the regular.  On offense Seattle is needs to continue to mix it up with Mo Morris and Alexander and keep the GB defense spread out, DJ Hackett is back in the line up and the big guy is dangerous in the red zone, Bobby Engram is still producing consistantly and finding ways to get open and most important of all Hasselbeck is controlling the tempo of the game and keeping the turnovers to a minimum, if he continues to find his WR’s on the 15 yards out routes and steadily moving the ball I think they have a good chance to beat the Pack, the talent is there now its up to Holmgren to not screw it up!

Green Bay keys to victory:  The Pack is coming off a bye week and an expected drubbing of the Lions in week 17 so the point is that after an unchallenging game and then 2 weeks to think about it, does that effect your psyche?  Brett Favre and company is going to have to regroup and get back into a rythem if they want to challenge the Seattle D.  The offensive line is going to have their hands full with Patrick Kerney who will be keying on Favre all day and they will also have to do what they can to make some running room for Grant who is going to be main ball carrier I assume.  With the spread at 8 the bookies are assuming that Favre gets back to business this week and are not giving the Seattle D enough credit.  If Favre can keep from getting sacked and throwing recklessly then hes got the WR’s to get it done, but if he starts to gamble then it could be the end of their season.

My Pick: Playing in Green Bay in January is no picnic and it is definantly an advantage for the Pack playing at home, but if the weather is favorable and there isn’t too much wind then I think Seattle has no problem with the cold.  -8 is way too much, both teams are matched up evenly from a stats standpoint and Seattle is riding momentum while Green Bay is out of rythem, the play is Seattle plus the points and then an extra $100 on the Seattle money line.

Sunday

NY Giants
Dallas  -7.5  47

NY Giants keys to victory:  It’s all up to Eli, if he comes to play then this is going to be a close game, but if he starts to get frustrated and pouts then the Cowboys will spank them.  The Giants need to keep Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw extremely busy!!! These guys can get it done on the ground and should be successful against the Cowboys run D, also Burress needs to get open more, hes way too big to be getting limited the way he has lately.  Eli has been doing a good job of spreading the ball out and most of the time his players respond by producing, TE Boss is also a threat in the red zone and if he can get open Eli will find him.  The defensive front line will have to keep pressure on Romo as well as shut down the Cowboys rushing attack of Marion Barber and Julius Jones.  Saftey Sam Madison is questionable for Sunday, but it will definantly be a plus to have him and with a less than 100% Terrell Owens it is the perfect opportunity for the Giants to rough up Romo who will be taking alot more time in the pocket. 

Dallas keys to victory:  The Cowboys will need to find a replacement for Terrell Owens who is expected to play but it is not clear for how long and how much he will be able to contribute expect for the obvious distraction he presents on the field (you can’t ignore him, injured or not he is always a threat).  Dallas needs to find their rythem immediatly to stay in the game, they got drubbed by Washington in week 17 and Romo was in the game through the 3rd quarter, so its not only the 2 week rest, but the fact that they were frustrated and beaten in the final game of the regular season only puts salt on the wounds.  They have to control the tempo with a balanced attack on the ground and in the air and in the end I think Romo will have to do someting heroic to win the game, by no means will this be a routing of either team, its gonna be a battle. 

My Pick:  Conventional wisdom says that -7.5 is nothing for the Cowboys who average the second most points a game in the league and playing at home makes it all the more feisable, but when you consider the momentum of the Giants and their newly found confidense I think the Giants will dish out all that the Cowboys can handle.  The play is the Giants plus the points and I like the over 47.

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