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November 29th, 2007

NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Power Rankings and Commentary

Heres the week 13 power rankings for the your fantasy players, there are a couple of surprises this week due to the matchups they are facing and this is the last week of the regular season for fantasy leagues so there may be a couple of sleepers you will have to pay attention to in order to guareentee yourself a spot in the playoffs. Enjoy…..

Quarterbacks:

1 Tom Brady Patriots @BAL¼
2 Derek Anderson Browns @ARI
3 Tony Romo Cowboys GB
4 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers CIN
5 Brett Favre Packers @DAL
6 Kurt Warner Cardinals CLE
7 Peyton Manning Colts JAC
8 Matt Hasselbeck Seahawks @PHI
9 Carson Palmer Bengals @PIT
10 Matt Schaub Texans @TEN
11 Jason Campbell Redskins BUF
12 Drew Brees Saints TB
13 Jon Kitna Lions @MIN
14 Vince Young Titans HOU
15 Eli Manning Giants @CHI
16 David Garrard Jaguars @IND
17 Marc Bulger Rams ATL
18 Donovan McNabb Eagles SEA
19 Jay Cutler Broncos @OAK
20 Kyle Boller Ravens NE
21 Philip Rivers Chargers @KC
22 Rex Grossman Bears NYG
23 Trent Dilfer 49ers @CAR
24 Daunte Culpepper Raiders DEN
25 Kellen Clemens Jets @MIA
26 Bruce Gradkowski Buccaneers @NO
27 Brodie Croyle Chiefs SD
28 Vinny Testaverde Panthers SF
29 Tarvaris Jackson Vikings DET
30 John Beck Dolphins NYJ
31 Trent Edwards Bills @WAS
32 Joey Harrington Falcons @STL

Notes: I think its very intresting that Derek Anderson slipped into the #2 spot usually reserved for Tony Romo. The fact is that his supporting cast is making him look really good. If you had Kurt Warner and Brett Favre on your roster I would definantly start Warner, think with your head not with your heart. I was really disappointed that Kellen Clemens has not come around like expected, but I suspect there are deeper issues and he will continue to struggle. Matt Schuab should take a page out of Carson Palmers play book from last week and have a great day. Speaking of Carson Palmer, it looks that last week Palmer finally got out of his funk and started making plays….its about damn time! I like many of you out there drafted Palmer as my starter and thanks to the quandry that Cincinnati had put themselves in the result was many unneccessary loss’ to scrub opponents that beat me by 1 or 2 points! The point of my rant was to inform you that I think Palmer is back and hes gonna tear up the supposed fierce Pittsburgh secondary, QUOTE ME ON IT!!!

Running Backs:

1 Brian Westbrook Eagles SEA
2 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers @KC
3 Joseph Addai Colts JAC
4 Steven Jackson Rams ATL
5 Willie Parker Steelers CIN
6 Frank Gore 49ers @CAR
7 Justin Fargas Raiders DEN
8 Willis McGahee Ravens NE
9 Adrian Peterson Vikings DET
10 Marion Barber Cowboys GB
11 Jamal Lewis Browns @ARI
12 Clinton Portis Redskins BUF
13 LenDale White Titans HOU
14 Edgerrin James Cardinals CLE
15 Kolby Smith Chiefs SD
16 Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars @IND
17 Reggie Bush Saints TB
18 Selvin Young Broncos @OAK
19 Adrian Peterson Bears NYG
20 Ryan Grant Packers @DAL
21 Maurice Morris Seahawks @PHI
22 Earnest Graham Buccaneers @NO
23 Reuben Droughns Giants @CHI
24 Ron Dayne Texans @TEN
25 Jesse Chatman Dolphins NYJ
26 Chester Taylor Vikings DET
27 Rudi Johnson Bengals @PIT
28 Chris Brown Titans HOU
29 Laurence Maroney Patriots @BAL
30 Fred Taylor Jaguars @IND
31 Thomas Jones Jets @MIA
32 Julius Jones Cowboys GB
33 Warrick Dunn Falcons @STL
34 DeShaun Foster Panthers SF
35 Kevin Jones Lions @MIN
36 Andre Hall Broncos @OAK
37 Anthony Thomas Bills @WAS
38 Aaron Stecker Saints TB
39 Samkon Gado Dolphins NYJ
40 Cecil Sapp Broncos @OAK
41 Kenny Watson Bengals @PIT
42 Najeh Davenport Steelers CIN
43 Heath Evans Patriots @BAL
44 Kenton Keith Colts JAC
45 DeAngelo Williams Panthers SF
46 Fred Jackson Bills @WAS
47 Correll Buckhalter Eagles SEA
48 Leon Washington Jets @MIA
49 T.J. Duckett Lions @MIN
50 Jerious Norwood Falcons @STL

Notes: I think Fargus may be a bit overrated in this case, the Denver D has been coming together lately. I think Marion Barber gets shut down by the GB run D, they are looking tough! If Selvin Young is healthy then I’m sure the OaklandD will ablige him by giving up a ton of yards. Westbrook gets the top spot this week basically because Seattle run D gave up 150 yds and 2 TD’s to Stephen Jackson and Philly has a better O line so Westbrook is gonna get plenty of work. Kolby Smith will not have the same luck against the Chargers D that he did with Oakland.

Wide Recievers:

1 Randy Moss Patriots @BAL
2 Terrell Owens Cowboys GB
3 Braylon Edwards Browns @ARI
4 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals CLE
5 Reggie Wayne Colts JAC
6 Hines Ward Steelers CIN
7 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Bengals @PIT
8 Andre Johnson Texans @TEN
9 Wes Welker Patriots @BAL
10 Anquan Boldin Cardinals CLE
11 Greg Jennings Packers @DAL
12 Chad Johnson Bengals @PIT
13 Bobby Engram Seahawks @PHI
14 Marques Colston Saints TB
15 Torry Holt Rams ATL
16 Roy Williams Lions @MIN
17 Plaxico Burress Giants @CHI
18 Brandon Marshall Broncos @OAK
19 Marvin Harrison Colts JAC
20 Joey Galloway Buccaneers @NO
21 Chris Henry. Bengals @PIT
22 Deion Branch Seahawks @PHI
23 Bernard Berrian Bears NYG
24 Donald Driver Packers @DAL
25 Roddy White Falcons @STL
26 Steve Smith Panthers SF
27 Dwayne Bowe Chiefs SD
28 Calvin Johnson Lions @MIN
29 Lee Evans Bills @WAS
30 Santonio Holmes Steelers CIN
31 Patrick Crayton Cowboys GB
32 Donte’ Stallworth Patriots @BAL
33 Derrick Mason Ravens NE
34 Justin Gage Titans HOU
35 Jerricho Cotchery Jets @MIA
36 Santana Moss Redskins BUF
37 Kevin Curtis Eagles SEA
38 Arnaz Battle 49ers @CAR
39 Shaun McDonald Lions @MIN
40 Chris Chambers Chargers @KC
41 Reggie Brown Eagles SEA
42 Ike Hilliard Buccaneers @NO
43 Kevin Walter Texans @TEN
44 David Patten Saints TB
45 Isaac Bruce Rams ATL
46 Ronald Curry Raiders DEN
47 Ted Ginn Jr. Dolphins NYJ
48 Muhsin Muhammad Bears NYG
49 Joe Jurevicius Browns @ARI
50 Amani Toomer Giants @CH

Notes: DJ Hackett went and got injured again and now he looks to be out for the rest of the season. This means Branch who is already back in the spotlight after his performance last week will get more targets, but then again he will also get all the attention from the secondary as well, which makes Bobby Engram the play here, no doubt about it. TJ should get some TD’s back that were vultured by Chad Johnson last week. I think Ted Ginn Jr is coming around and is a starter in deep leagues, him and Beck are gonna make it work,(they have to). All the Cardinal WR’s should get a full helping of points as well as Braylon Edwards becuase neither team has much of a secondary to speak of. I like Greg Jennings a little more than Donald Driver just because of recent patterns, but that could all be hog wash.

Tight Ends:

1 Kellen Winslow Browns @ARI
2 Antonio Gates Chargers @KC
3 Donald Lee Packers @DAL
4 Jason Witten Cowboys GB
5 Jeremy Shockey Giants @CHI
6 Dallas Clark Colts JAC
7 Tony Gonzalez Chiefs SD
8 Heath Miller Steelers CIN
9 Benjamin Watson Patriots @BAL
10 Chris Cooley Redskins BUF
11 Vernon Davis 49ers @CAR
12 Owen Daniels Texans @TEN
13 Tony Scheffler Broncos @OAK
14 L.J. Smith Eagles SEA
15 Greg Olsen Bears NYG
16 Alge Crumpler Falcons @STL
17 Marcedes Lewis Jaguars @IND
18 Desmond Clark Bears NYG
19 Bo Scaife Titans HOU
20 Alex Smith Buccaneers @NO
21 Randy McMichael Rams ATL
22 Jeff King Panthers SF
23 Ben Utecht Colts JAC
24 Leonard Pope Cardinals CLE
25 Eric Johnson Saints TB
26 Will Heller Seahawks @PHI
27 Robert Royal Bills @WAS
28 Chris Baker Jets @MIA
29 Zach Miller Raiders DEN
30 Visanthe Shiancoe Vikings DET
31 Sean McHugh Lions @MIN
32 Reggie Kelly Bengals @PIT

Notes: Shockey should most likely get it together this week, hes been just awful and could be viewed as trade bait in the off season if he doesn’t start playing like he wants to. Donald Lee is great red zone threat in Dallas. If you had the patience to keep Crumpler all these weeks then he might finally pay off this week. Seattle used the TE quite nicely against STL and Roddy White can’t catch all the balls so I like him to finally have an above average game tis week. Tennessee looks vulnerable to TE exposure, I think Matt Schaub takes full advantage of this with Owen Daniels.

Kickers:

1 Nick Folk Cowboys GB
2 Stephen Gostkowski Patriots @BAL
3 Rob Bironas Titans HOU
4 Mason Crosby Packers @DAL
5 Jeff Reed Steelers CIN
6 Matt Stover Ravens NE
7 Shayne Graham Bengals @PIT
8 Josh Brown Seahawks @PHI
9 Kris Brown Texans @TEN
10 Adam Vinatieri Colts JAC
11 Jason Hanson Lions @MIN
12 David Akers Eagles SEA
13 Jason Elam Broncos @OAK
14 Robbie Gould Bears NYG
15 Neil Rackers Cardinals CLE
16 Phil Dawson Browns @ARI
17 Nate Kaeding Chargers @KC
18 Lawrence Tynes Giants @CHI
19 John Kasay Panthers SF
20 Jeff Wilkins Rams ATL
21 Ryan Longwell Vikings DET
22 Sebastian Janikowski Raiders DEN
23 Shaun Suisham Redskins BUF
24 Josh Scobee Jaguars @IND
25 Joe Nedney 49ers @CAR
26 John Carney Chiefs SD
27 Rian Lindell Bills @WAS
28 Olindo Mare Saints TB
29 Matt Bryant Buccaneers @NO
30 Jay Feely Dolphins NYJ
31 Mike Nugent Jets @MIA
32 Morten Andersen Falcons @STL

Notes: I would hope that no one is still adding and dropping kickers. Rackers owners have to be mad, and I understand completely. Josh Brown is also missing FG’s as well and it is very discouraging, they both know they are better than that.

Defenses:

1 New England Patriots @BAL
2 Minnesota Vikings DET
3 San Diego Chargers @KC
4 New York Giants @CHI
5 Pittsburgh Steelers CIN
6 New Orleans Saints TB
7 Indianapolis Colts JAC
8 Denver Broncos @OAK
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @NO
10 Chicago Bears NYG
11 Seattle Seahawks @PHI
12 San Francisco 49ers @CAR
13 St. Louis Rams ATL
14 Tennessee Titans HOU
15 Kansas City Chiefs SD
16 Detroit Lions @MIN
17 Jacksonville Jaguars @IND
18 Philadelphia Eagles SEA
19 Washington Redskins BUF
20 Green Bay Packers @DAL
21 Miami Dolphins NYJ
22 Oakland Raiders DEN
23 New York. Jets @MIA
24 Dallas Cowboys GB
25 Cincinnati Bengals @PIT
26 Baltimore Ravens NE
27 Buffalo Bills @WAS
28 Carolina Panthers SF
29 Atlanta Falcons @STL
30 Houston Texans @TEN
31 Cleveland Browns @ARI
32 Arizona Cardinals CLE

Notes: I think Pitt is ranked too high here, and Cincy finds a way to destroy them. Green Bay run D is underrated and I think they deserve a much higher ranking, I think they are at least startable. Baltimore is going to get hurt bad and I mean BAAAD. Minnesota ranked this high could lure me into a sense of false comfort, but I think they continue with the momentum and put the hurt on Kitna and the Lions O.

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November 29th, 2007

NFL Week 13 Betting Odds and Fantasy Football Impact

Week 12 was full of surprises and close calls, from Gus Ferrote fumbling on the 1 yard line to Kurt Warner dropping the ball in the end zone in over time, hearts were broken and playoff pictures got a little more clearer.  This week should be just as exciting and it all starts with the NFC’s version of the Colts vs Pats when the cinderella story that is Brett Favre and the Packers head to Dallas to take on Tony Romo and the Cowboys.  Both teams are 10 - 1 and have high hopes of securing home field advantage thru the playoffs.  Heres the rundown of matchups this week along with the spread and over/under totals as well as the fantasy football impact each matchup has on your players. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Green Bay
Dallas  -7  51.5

This is the game of the week by far and perhaps a preview of the NFC Championship.  Both teams have high flying offenses, however the run game in Dallas is far more productive.  Favre looks unstoppable and the whole Packers team is playing so loose its a little scary, you can tell that both these teams are having fun and despite the implications of the outcome you can be sure that both Favre and Romo will be smiling at the end.  The Pack has not lost on the road this year, however I don’t think they have played anyone with the caliber of the Cowboys and much of their success will depend on Ryan Grant and the ground game, 7 points is alot to give Favre and company and thats why I think you gotta take the points, they might not win, but it will be closer than 7, take the Pack and the points!  *Fantasy Impact: Last week ALL Packers WR’s eat big and I’m not talking about turkey.  They should all be good starts this week again and I think if you have Ryan Grant you have to start him.  On the other side of the ball I would be very weary of starting the Cowboys RB’s, the Green Bay run D is extremely good this year and I think that Marion Barber and Julius Jones have been giving flash in the pan performances this year and could be very well shut down.  Owens is always a start and will be a good matchup against the overrated Packer secondary.   

SUNDAY

Buffalo
Washington  -5.5  37

First of all, I would like to send my thoughts out to the family of Sean Taylor, it seems like such a waste of life and talent.  OK, neither of these teams have much to look forward to they are both coming off disappointing losses and I really don’t see much fireworks happening although with the death of their teammate I think Clinton Portis will lead a spirited campaign and completely drub the Bills.  The return of Trent Edwards will make little difference and I think the Bills are already looking forward to next year.  *Fantasy Impact:  Portis is going to have a huge day and I think that the Washington D could have one of those games that only happenes once a season, something out of the movies with a heart pumping soundtrack.

Detroit
Minnesota  -3.5  45

Detroit looked like the cinderella team that was destined to make the playoffs for the first time this decade, but now after losing 3 games in a row they may be in jeopardy of letting the dream slip away.  They got schooled by the Pack last week, but you really can’t hold it against them, I mean its Brett Favre.  The Vikings are on a roll and now it looks as if rookie sensation Adrian Peterson could be healthy enough in time for Sunday.  Also consider that the Vikings D is on top of their game coming off a huge 4 INT’s 3 of which were returned for TD’s they are feeling really good about themselves and going up against the pass happy Mike Martz offense with a shaky Kitna that seems to be airing it out in desperation.  They have alot of talent in Detroit, but they are not ready this year.  If AP is healthy then its going to be ugly for the Lions.  Minnesota is the play give the points.  *Fantasy Impact: Kevin Jones seems like the play against a shaky Minnesota run D, AP obviously if hes healthy and if not hopefully you picked up Chester Taylor hes been great lately.  Minnesota is a one sided team with the run and Detroit was one sided with the pass, but I think they change the game plan this week and go to the run so beware of starting Lions WR’s.

NY Jets
Miami  -1  38

They were so close last week against Pitt and was rooting for Miami all the way, plus with the return of Ricky WIlliams how can you not root for the winless Dolphins.  The Jets on the other hand have a whole other situation, I just don’t understand it.  They finally started playing Kellen Clemens like they should have at the beginning of the season they brought in Thomas Jones to invent a run game they got the talent at WR and still Coach “Mangenious” can’t find the winning combination to put the Jets on the path of W’s.  This is a classic rivalry in the NFL, but this year both teams are soo bad that I don’t see it being a very exciting game or perhaps for that very reason it will be.  Regardless,  I love Miami this week at home, there is no reason why they should go winless, John Beck will assume the starting position for the rest of the season, Ricky Williams has no choice, but to play well so he can at least get a 1 year contract and make enough to buy a bag of grass!  Ted Ginn Jr.  is coming around and him and Beck are creating valuable chemistry that will pay dividends next season.  The play is definantly Miami this week!  *Fantasy Impact:  I bet Ginn Jr.  is on the wire in many leagues simply because he had no one to throw him the ball, but I think all that changed, pick him and play him!  Willie Parker ran all over the Fins run D and I think Thomas Jones will do the same, but only at a flex position.  I don’t think either QB is worth starting, but desperate times calll for desperate measures so act accordingly. 

Seattle
Philadelphia  -3  42

I was on the edge last Sunday as I watched the Seattle D allow St. Louis led by Gus Ferrote of all people march down the field on what would be their last possesion and see them get to the 1 yard line with Stephen Jackson in the backfield!  Luckily my boys held their ground oh and Gus Ferrote fumbled the snal on 4th down. (LMAO) What a scrub.  Well the point is that that kinda play is not gonna fly this week at Philly.  Philly seems to have found a flaw in the in-cred-i-ble (you have to say that in spanish for it to make sense) Patriots.  Honestly I think that was just a hiccup on the Pats part and although the Eagles are a good team they are definantly beatable and I think if Seattle can keep it together long enough they can get the job done.  DJ Hackett is out for the rest of the season, but it shouldn’t matter they are stacked at the WR spot and Mo Morris is solidifying his role as the starter and he should get Alexanders contract(but thats just my opinion).  It looks like McScrub oops I mean McNabb is coming back, but I think that just hurts them and Westbrook is healthy so thats not good for the Seattle D, they did give up the booty against Jackson so the damage could be catasrophic!  All this aside I think Hasselbeck studies Bradys game tape and picks apart the Philly secondary, it will be up to Westbrook to win it for them and I think Seattle needs this win to get over that hump and show everyone they belong in the playoffs despite how weak the NFC is.  I like Seattle plus the points.  *Fantasy Impact:  Do not play Mo Morris he will get stuffed.  Engram is now a #1 WR, I will definantly start him.  Westbrook will eat big I suspect, and its killing me inside.  Hasselbeck for sure, but not McScrub, I know I know all you McNabb owners are yelling and screaming and thinking I don’t know anything, but just wait and see. 

Houston
Tennessee  -4  43

Both of these teams are desperate for a win.  Houston has a glimmer of chance for the playoffs and Tennessee is sputtering, they have completely shut down on the run game.  I mean its like they forgot??? Well they better remember because Houston D gave up 134 yards to old ass Jamal Lewis!  LenDale white should be able to carve out some ground, especially at home.  Houston is another prime example of a team of young guys that got alot of talent, but were plagued by injuries and never got a chance to get a rythem going, I expect big things from them next year.  That said I think Tennessee has more at stake and at home they should be able to get things going.  For some reason the spread is at 4 which is a tricky numberI think its worth buying the half point down to 3.5 just in case you get that 24-20 score.  So there it is the Titans buying it down to -3.5.  *Fantasy Impact:  If my theory holds true then I think Lendale White finally gets out of his slump this week,(man whats his deal???)  Vince Young is still too jittery and I don’t think there is much of a pass game to talked of.  I think Matt Schaub could put up some numbers, but then again my gut says no, so I translate that into either he has a killer game or e gets completely shut down…..flip a coin.   

Jacksonville
Indianapolis  -7  45

Now this is a very intresting, the Jaguars are 8-3 and Indy has kinda been put in their place.  I think the Colts have lost their luster and they know it and while I stated previously a few weeks ago that I didn’t believe in the Jags, it looks as though I am eating those words.  The Jags are hungry and a healthy Gerrard is making all the difference.  There D is just getting it done and not making dumb mistakes.  They will definantly make Addai earn every yard and be a constant annoyance to Reggie Wayne and Peyton will eat turf a couple times.  Now this all might happen, but do I think it will be enough to get the W??? NO!  Peyton and company are too tough at home and have too much pride I think they will win, but its going to be close.  The Colts will win, but they WILL NOT cover the spread, take the points!  *Fantasy Impact:  I think this is gonna be a hard hitting defensive battle you gotta start your starters, but don’t get all giddy about it.   

San Diego  -5  37.5
Kansas City

Man….Kansas City just can’t catch a break can they…LJ is back on the IR list, but Kolby Smith picked up the slack and made a game of it with 150 yards and a pair of TD’s, but then again that was against the Oakland run D which is shabadabadooooooooooo and thats being nice.  I highly doubt that Smith will have the same production against the Charger D.  LT broke the 10,000 yard bench mark, but had no TD’s and its really killing my fantasy team, jeez he was a disappointment.  I would hope that he would reach down and grab a pair and come through with a 50 point performance this week which is definantly acheiveable if Norv Turner will just let him run.  I think that KC got dealt a bad hand this season and know they just need to play for pride, but it won’t be enough to stop the Chargers, give the 5 points.  *Fantasy Impact:  My above statements say it all, start LT, bench Kolby Smith.  Phil-leap Rivers should have a decent game, but he better watch last weeks game tape.   

San Francisco
Carolina  -2.5  35.5

San Fran finally got a W and Frank Gore came out to play last week.  In all truth it was the Cardinals that actually lost the game not San Fran winning it.  Carolina is still struggling to find an identity and it doesn’t look good in the foreseeable future.  They don’t have a QB and their best hope is poor old 44 yr old Vinny T.  I feel for him, I really do. I thought that Deshaun Foster might actually start earning his paycheck, but yet again I was disappointed last week.  The Panthers haven’t won a game at home this season and thats pitiful.  If Frank Gore comes out to play and Dilfer has the same kind of game as last week then its gonna be a long day for the Panthers.  Take San Fran and the points.  *Fantasy Impact:  I think Frank Gore is gold Jerry GOLD!!!  If you had to play Trent Dilfer then its ok.  In deeper leagues if you have a San Fran WR then it might make you smile.  I think that the San Fran D is a good matchup for Foster even though hes been flash in the pan lately.

Tampa Bay
New Orleans  -3  41.5

Tampa didn’t look particularly strong last week against Washington at home and this is discouraging especially since they are 7-4 and have a good chance to make the playoffs.  New Orleans looked like they were giving auditions, it seemed like everyone got a chance to run the ball and the Tampa run D is alot more stingy then the Carolina run D so the Saints better figure it out before Sunday. Brees is looking good in the air and I think his success continues at home.  If Earnest Grahm can get his ground game going then it should make for quite a game.  I think the Saints have been getting it done with Brees airing it out and he continues to do so this week.  The Bucs have been winning games, but I don’t think they are showing us anything special that makes me believe.  The Saints are the play and give the points.  *Fantasy Impact:  Pay attention to Colston and I think they stick with Bush this game instead of spreading it out.  You gotta go with Garcia if you have already been starting him, he should put up decent numbers.  Grahm obviously, but don’t expect much.  

Cleveland
Arizona  -1  51.5

Kurt Warner threw for almost 500 yards last week and its not like Cleveland D is something to worry about.  This game should be a pick instead of 1 point, but the bookmakers want to screw with you.  I think that Lewis gets alot more touches this week and I don’t think that the AZ D can do anything about it.  Derek Anderson continues to play well and I don’t see any slowing down.  In the end I see a high scoring game and the winner will be the team that turns the ball over the least.  In this case I gotta go with the home team, take AZ.  *Fantasy Impact:  You gotta start every player from each team, neither one has a defense to speak of so that means big scores from alot of guys.

Denver  -3.5  42
Oakland

Denver found out the hard way last week that when you kick to Devin Hester it is not a good thing.  Oakland beat one of their most hated rivals in KC and Justin Fargus seems to have solidified his position at RB.  Denver has found a new hero in Andre Hall and as of this writing Selvin Young still looks inactive.  Oakland is notorious for giving up huge hards to opposing RB’s and with the way Hall ran on the Bears D he should get plenty more in Oakland.  Denver also gives up alot on the ground, but not enough.  Denver has the pass threat as well as the run and this makes them more potent and the winners this week in Oakland, however don’t get caught on the half point hook, you gotta buy it down to at least 3 points.  *Fantasy Impact:  I guess Fargus is the man in Oakland now so you gotta start him, Cutler should have a field day and connect with Stokely easily enough, but with these 2 teams nothing is consistent so beware.

NY Giants  -1.5  42.5
Chicago

Poor Poor Eli, I mean he got humiliated at home, and they were playing so well….The bears are no doubt fired up after Rexy threw that game winner, but the pass D was picked apart.  I don’t think Grossman has redeemed himself quite yet and lucky for him Adrian Peterson stepped up and took the pressure off him.  I think Eli gets it together this week and takes a long look at Cutlers games tape.  If Chicago can’t adjust its gonna be tough on them.  The offense will already have enough trouble with the Giants D and Rex may fold.  One thing is for sure, they will not be kicking to Hester. I think the Giants roll on Chicago who is not playing like they have in the past.  Give the lousy 1.5 points.  *Fantasy Impact: 

Cincinnati
Pittsburgh  -7  48

Well well well….Palmer finally came out to play last week, god he was killing my team.  Pitt meanwhile got slowed by the weather and mud like turf more than the Miami D.  No doubt they will be looking to get back to business this week in more favorable weather.  The Cincy D actually put the stop on Tennessee last week and thats progress, so at least something positive is happening on that side of the ball.  They will have to make alot more this week if they want to slow down Big Ben and Willie Parker.  I think that Cincy is bringing it too little too late and Pitt is playoff bound no matter what, the spread is high and that means Cincy looks good, I like the Bengals and the points IF the D comes to play the offense will keep them in it.  *Fantasy Impact:  I think Cincy continues with the great offense and Pitt follows suit.  I would not start Rudi Johnson if you can help it, but then again you might not have a choice.  TJ should get some of those TD’s that newly appointed camera man Chad Johnson vultured from him.  Hines, Parker, and whats his name you know the guy I’m talking about should all be good starts.  

MONDAY NIGHT

New England  -20.5  51.5
Baltimore

Baltimore has nothing going for them right now and I mean nothing.  New England is still a little shocked that they almost let the perfect season slip away to the likes of Philly and career backup A.J. Feely, they will shake that off by Monday night and will not get fooled again.  The spread says it all -20.5!!! Ray Lewis does not like that at all, it shows no respect.  The bookmakers have a point when you really think about it, the Balt D is no longer the top D, I don’t even think they are in the top 10, Brady is out for blood just to prove that they are the team everyone thought they were and the whole Philly debacle was just a hiccup.  This is going to be a one-sided beatdown and the Pats are blood thirsty!  However, 20.5 is alot, but not enough, don’t be scared of the big number its less than 3 TD’s.  Take the Pats light a candle and give the points!  *Fantasy Impact:  It seems like its the same line every week with the Pats, start’em ALL!!! Except for Jabroney, I mean Maroney, the Balt D can still stiffle the run.  On the Balt side I think you can start Mcgahee, but don’t expect a breakout game.

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November 21st, 2007

NFL Week 12 Betting Odds and Fantasy Football Preview

It’s an early week this week and as tradition continues we have 3 games on Turkey Day this year, 2 of which should be barn burners. Here is the list of matchups this week along with the spread and total as well as my picks and fantasy football commentary on what each matchup means for your players. *Bottom team listed is home team.

Green Bay  -3.5  47
Detroit

Detroit desperatly needs this win at home if they want to secure a wildcard bid.  Kitna had a great game if you don’t count those 3 INT’s.  It seemed like every player on the Lions team got some rec yds, but when they got in the red zone they just couldn’t get it done.  There D actually came to play and held the Giants run offense which is encouraging against the mess called the Packers run game.  Brett Favre meanwhile continues to light opposing defenses and I don’t see him slowing down anytime soon.  I mean its Brett Favre, enough said.  Take the Pack give the points.  *Fantasy Impact:  I think you see nothing but passing on Green Bays part which means Jennings, Jones, and Driver all day long.  Kitna threw for almost 400 yards last week and I think they go with the same strategy this week, so he should be good for decent number, the GB secondary isn’t that good, they just get name recognition thats all.  Kevin Jones could be limited, not sure and the GB RB’s are still suspect. 

NY Jets
Dallas  -14.5  47.5

The Jets made me look like a devine prophet last week when they upset the Steelers as I predicted for the sleeper team of the week.  Clemens is the big dog in NY right now and I think he has accepted his role as the starter of the future and will take every chance he can to prove it.   He didn’t have a spectacular game last week, but you have to give him credit for the W.  This week against the Boys’ I think they struggle, but not the passing game.   Pitt secondary is alot better than the Dallas secondary so I expect it to be a another passing affair.  Dallas is solid right now, a little too solid, which means I like them  to falter at least a bit.  Despite that last comment, Dallas at home is just too much for the Jets right now and taking the Boys’ and giving the points is the play.  *Fantasy Impact:  Romo, Owens, and Barber are the main characters in this drubbing.  I think Cotchery is gold this week especially after his dismal performance last week, they jsut didn’t give it to him at all.  This is a ploy by Mangini to draw attention away from him,  and now that Coles is doubtful he will get the workload.  I also think that Thomas Jones will be worthy of a start based on the matchup and play calling.

Indianapolis  -12.5  41
Atlanta

What can I really say about this game other than that Atlanta has a golden opportunity to smack around the Colts.  Indy just barely beat KC at home and I think we can all agree that the Chiefs are shabadabadoooooooo.   So now even though ATL’s season is over they can still break hearts and honestly they need to just to have something to look forward to next season.  I think it would be good for professional football for ATL to put a thrashing on the Colts on Thanksgiving.  I doubt it will happen, but based on what we saw last week, I honestly think that the Falcons plus the points is a lock!!!  *Fantasy Impact:  I think Crumpler comes out of his injury prone slump and does something this week as well as Roddy White.  Dunn will get shut down and I am almost positive that Addai eats real big.  I think that Peyton gets a little bit back to normal and they win, but they won’t cover.

Denver
Chicago -1 41

Tennessee -1 47
Cincinnati

Buffalo
Jacksonville  -7.5  36

Oakland
Kansas City -5.5 34.5

Houston
Cleveland  -3.5  51

Seattle  -3  45
St. Louis

Minnesota
NY Giants  -7  41

New Orleans  -2.5  41
Carolina

Washington
Tampa Bay  -3  38

San Francisco
Arizona  -10.5  38

Baltimore
San Diego  -9.5  38.5

Philadelphia
New England  -22  50

Miami
Pittsburgh  -16  41

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November 15th, 2007

NFL Week 11 Fantasy Football Power Rankings

For fantasy owners its time to start looking ahead to the playoffs and making sure that your star player who has carried you all season is not riding the pine at the end of season because why risk it if they have already made the playoffs.  Start thinking ahead people!  Heres the power rankings for position in week 11 plus some commentary on individual matchups. 

Quarterbacks:

1 Tom Brady Patriots @BUF
2 Tony Romo Cowboys WAS
3 Peyton Manning Colts KC
4 Marc Bulger Rams @SF
5 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers @NYJ
6 Derek Anderson Browns @BAL
7 Brett Favre Packers CAR
8 Carson Palmer Bengals ARI
9 Drew Brees Saints @HOU
10 Matt Schaub Texans NO
11 Donovan McNabb Eagles MIA
12 Matt Hasselbeck Seahawks CHI
13 Eli Manning Giants @DET
14 Kurt Warner Cardinals @CIN
15 Jeff Garcia Buccaneers @ATL
16 Kyle Boller Ravens CLE
17 Jon Kitna Lions NYG
18 Vince Young Titans @DEN
19 Jason Campbell Redskins @DAL
20 David Garrard Jaguars SD
21 Jay Cutler Broncos TEN
22 Philip Rivers Chargers @JAC
23 Kellen Clemens Jets PIT
24 Byron Leftwich Falcons TB
25 Rex Grossman Bears @SEA
26 J.P. Losman Bills NE
27 Alex Smith 49ers STL
28 Vinny Testaverde Panthers @GB
29 John Beck Dolphins @PHI
30 Brodie Croyle Chiefs @IND
31 Josh McCown Raiders @MIN
32 Tarvaris Jackson Vikings OAK

Notes:  Tom Brady is back and rested and looking for blood!  This whole Don Shula Asterisk crap is only fueling the fire and after Sunday Night they will call it the Buffalo Massacre!  Mark Bulger should continue his comeback tour with a bang against the scrubish San Fran D.  I think Baltimore D gets it together and shuts down Derek Anderson, they know they are better than that. My sleeper pick is John Beck….WHO? Yeah thats right the 2nd pick in the draft, he was brought in for the future and for the Fins the future is now!  If you have playoff aspirations in your fantasy league and can afford to pick him up I would definantly do it.  What if this guy pulls a Derek Anderson?  He would be extremely valuable at the end of the season when Brady and Manning aren’t taking as many snaps.  Think about it….. 

Running Backs:

1 Willie Parker Steelers @NYJ
2 Brian Westbrook Eagles MIA
3 LaDainian Tomlinson Chargers @JAC
4 Joseph Addai Colts KC
5 Reggie Bush Saints @HOU
6 Steven Jackson Rams @SF
7 Chester Taylor Vikings OAK
8 Edgerrin James Cardinals @CIN
9 Brandon Jacobs Giants @DET
10 Willis McGahee Ravens CLE
11 Marion Barber Cowboys WAS
12 LenDale White Titans @DEN
13 Clinton Portis Redskins @DAL
14 Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars SD
15 Frank Gore 49ers STL
16 Ryan Grant Packers CAR
17 Jesse Chatman Dolphins @PHI
18 Justin Fargas Raiders @MIN
19 Warrick Dunn Falcons TB
20 Laurence Maroney Patriots @BUF
21 Priest Holmes Chiefs @IND
22 Kevin Jones Lions NYG
23 Maurice Morris Seahawks CHI
24 Earnest Graham Buccaneers @ATL
25 Selvin Young Broncos TEN
26 Cedric Benson Bears @SEA
27 Anthony Thomas Bills NE
28 Julius Jones Cowboys WAS
29 DeShaun Foster Panthers @GB
30 Rudi Johnson Bengals ARI
31 Jamal Lewis Browns @BAL
32 Ahman Green Texans NO
33 Thomas Jones Jets PIT
34 DeAngelo Williams Panthers @GB
35 T.J. Duckett Lions NYG
36 Kenny Watson Bengals ARI
37 Fred Taylor Jaguars SD
38 Ron Dayne Texans NO
39 Reuben Droughns Giants @DET
40 Michael Pittman Buccaneers @ATL
41 Adimchinobi Echemandu Texans NO
42 Adrian Peterson. Bears @SEA
43 Kenton Keith Colts KC
44 Dwayne Wright Bills NE
45 Najeh Davenport Steelers @NYJ
46 Ladell Betts Redskins @DAL
47 Aaron Stecker Saints @HOU
48 Leonard Weaver Seahawks CHI
49 Pierre Thomas Saints @HOU
50 Michael Robinson 49ers STL

Notes:  Honestly I think Westbrook should be number 1 this week, his matchup is just too sweet.  If Maurice Morris can have a decent night against San Fran then what do you think Stephen Jackson is gonna do?(BIG NUMBERS)  Cester Taylor is over rated, don’t fool yourself.  Bradon Jacobs should be a great start and finally, if Selvin Young plays then I think you give him a chance.  Addai is out for blood and I think the sorry ass Kansas City D is on the menu.

Wide Receivers:

1 Randy Moss Patriots @BUF
2 Reggie Wayne Colts KC
3 Braylon Edwards Browns @BAL
4 Terrell Owens Cowboys WAS
5 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Bengals ARI
6 Torry Holt Rams @SF
7 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals @CIN
8 Hines Ward Steelers @NYJ
9 Plaxico Burress Giants @DET
10 Wes Welker Patriots @BUF
11 Marques Colston Saints @HOU
12 Santonio Holmes Steelers @NYJ
13 Chad Johnson Bengals ARI
14 Greg Jennings Packers CAR
15 Roy Williams Lions NYG
16 Andre Johnson Texans NO
17 D.J. Hackett Seahawks CHI
18 Brandon Marshall Broncos TEN
19 Donte’ Stallworth Patriots @BUF
20 Anquan Boldin Cardinals @CIN
21 Joey Galloway Buccaneers @ATL
22 Lee Evans Bills NE
23 Patrick Crayton Cowboys WAS
24 Bobby Engram Seahawks CHI
25 Donald Driver Packers CAR
26 Steve Smith Panthers @GB
27 Jerricho Cotchery Jets PIT
28 Kevin Curtis Eagles MIA
29 Derrick Mason Ravens CLE
30 Roddy White Falcons TB
31 Chris Henry. Bengals ARI
32 Reggie Brown Eagles MIA
33 Mark Clayton Ravens CLE
34 Kevin Walter Texans NO
35 Bernard Berrian Bears @SEA
36 Laveranues Coles Jets PIT
37 Arnaz Battle 49ers STL
38 David Patten Saints @HOU
39 Shaun McDonald Lions NYG
40 Dwayne Bowe Chiefs @IND
41 Brandon Stokley Broncos TEN
42 Muhsin Muhammad Bears @SEA
43 Andre Davis Texans NO
44 James Jones Packers CAR
45 Marty Booker Dolphins @PHI
46 Chris Chambers Chargers @JAC
47 Amani Toomer Giants @DET
48 Mike Furrey Lions NYG
49 Keenan McCardell Redskins @DAL
50 Craphonso Thorpe Colts KC

Notes:  Obviously from my previous statement that if you own a Pats WR you are smiling, I think Baltimore gets it together this week and thats good for Derrick Mason especially since Boller is throwing to him.  So if Balt gets it together then I think Braylon Edwards may disappoint this week despit the heavy injuries in the secondary, I know it defys logic so just call it a fate thing.  I predicted that the Jets would come alive with Clemens at Q so I think that spells points for Cotchery and Coles(if hes healthy).  Chris Henry will likely start sharing more and more with Housh which sucks for me cause I own Hous, but I think there may be enough to go around. 

Tight Ends:

1 Antonio Gates Chargers @JAC
2 Kellen Winslow Browns @BAL
3 Tony Gonzalez Chiefs @IND
4 Jason Witten Cowboys WAS
5 Jeremy Shockey Giants @DET
6 Heath Miller Steelers @NYJ
7 Chris Cooley Redskins @DAL
8 Donald Lee Packers CAR
9 L.J. Smith Eagles MIA
10 Alge Crumpler Falcons TB
11 Benjamin Watson Patriots @BUF
12 Greg Olsen Bears @SEA
13 Vernon Davis 49ers STL
14 Jeff King Panthers @GB
15 Owen Daniels Texans NO
16 Eric Johnson Saints @HOU
17 Randy McMichael Rams @SF
18 Leonard Pope Cardinals @CIN
19 Bryan Fletcher Colts KC
20 Tony Scheffler Broncos TEN
21 Desmond Clark Bears @SEA
22 Quinn Sypniewski Ravens CLE
23 Zach Miller Raiders @MIN
24 Ben Utecht Colts KC
25 Chris Baker Jets PIT
26 Alex Smith Buccaneers @ATL
27 Will Heller Seahawks CHI
28 Bo Scaife Titans @DEN
29 Marcedes Lewis Jaguars SD
30 Matt Spaeth Steelers @NYJ
31 David Martin Dolphins @PHI
32 Sean McHugh Lions NYG

Notes:  I like Owen Daniels, hes rested and due for some magic.  Gates will probably get used a bit more especially since he was neglected last week, just not sure how good the JAX D wants to be yet.  I have no idea why Tony Gonzalez is ranked so high, especially against a mean, disgruntled, upset, wounded animal like the Indy D.  Finally, I don’t understand what happened to Greg Olsen last week, they were treating him like the fat girl at the dance.  That has got to change, especially since hes my fantasy team TE!   

Kickers:

1 Stephen Gostkowski Patriots @BUF
2 Nick Folk Cowboys WAS
3 Jeff Reed Steelers @NYJ
4 Rob Bironas Titans @DEN
5 Josh Brown Seahawks CHI
6 Mason Crosby Packers CAR
7 Matt Stover Ravens CLE
8 Adam Vinatieri Colts KC
9 Kris Brown Texans NO
10 Shayne Graham Bengals ARI
11 David Akers Eagles MIA
12 Jason Elam Broncos TEN
13 Neil Rackers Cardinals @CIN
14 Jason Hanson Lions NYG
15 Nate Kaeding Chargers @JAC
16 Lawrence Tynes Giants @DET
17 Phil Dawson Browns @BAL
18 Jay Feely Dolphins @PHI
19 John Kasay Panthers @GB
20 Jeff Wilkins Rams @SF
21 Robbie Gould Bears @SEA
22 Rian Lindell Bills NE
23 Ryan Longwell Vikings OAK
24 Joe Nedney 49ers STL
25 Olindo Mare Saints @HOU
26 Shaun Suisham Redskins @DAL
27 Sebastian Janikowski Raiders @MIN
28 Morten Andersen Falcons TB
29 Matt Bryant Buccaneers @ATL
30 Josh Scobee Jaguars SD
31 Mike Nugent Jets PIT
32 Dave Rayner Chiefs @IND

Notes:  Ok Stephen Gostkowski will get alot of points, but they will only be extra points, so don’t get too excited if you have him. I’m looking for a kicker that gets forced to kick alot of FG’s and this week I like Josh Brown.  (Plus I’ll be at the Seattle game, hehehe)

Defenses:

1 Green Bay Packers CAR
2 Pittsburgh Steelers @NYJ
3 New England Patriots @BUF
4 Philadelphia Eagles MIA
5 New York Giants @DET
6 Seattle Seahawks CHI
7 Indianapolis Colts KC
8 Tennessee Titans @DEN
9 Dallas Cowboys WAS
10 Minnesota Vikings OAK
11 Detroit Lions NYG
12 Jacksonville Jaguars SD
13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ATL
14 Baltimore Ravens CLE
15 San Diego Chargers @JAC
16 Chicago Bears @SEA
17 Atlanta Falcons TB
18 St. Louis Rams @SF
19 New Orleans Saints @HOU
20 Oakland Raiders @MIN
21 Carolina Panthers @GB
22 Kansas City Chiefs @IND
23 Denver Broncos TEN
24 Cincinnati Bengals ARI
25 San Francisco 49ers STL
26 Cleveland Browns @BAL
27 Arizona Cardinals @CIN
28 Houston Texans NO
29 New York. Jets PIT
30 Washington Redskins @DAL
31 Miami Dolphins @PHI
32 Buffalo Bills NE

Notes:  First of all, GB defense is not that good, its just that the Panthers are that bad!  Pitt D hasn’t been all peaches and cream on the road and besides that I like the Jets in the upset.  Seattle D should give Rexy a thorough harrassing all night and I am forecasting at least 2 picks and 1 fumble recovery.  Minnesota’s D is just in a funk right now and they will take out their frustrations on Oakland for sure.  

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November 15th, 2007

NFL Week 11 Betting Odds and Fantasy Football Preview

The second half of the NFL season is in full swing and the playoff picture is getting clearer and clearer. Heres the week 11 matchups and betting spreads and totals as well as the fantasy impact each matchup presents for players and their production (bottom team is home team):

San Diego
Jacksonville  -2.5  40.5

Both teams are coming off huge wins and with those wins gave themselves second chances at playoff runs.  San Diego came off with an upset and intercepted Manning 6 times!  So right about now the Chargers are feeling pretty good about themselves and it might just spell there demise.  For one thing Rivers only threw for 104 yds, and LT was held to just 75yds.  The Chargers defense/special teams is what won the game and forunately the bookmakers realize it by giving them +2.5 points.  The Jaguars surprised everyone as well with a thumping of Tennessee and yet again it was the Defense that won it for them. They literally became a brick wall anytime the Titans tried to run.(Lendale White lost me my game last week, scrub!)  Anyways, it’s going to be a defensive game and definantly low scoring.  But I like Jacksonville with the return of David Gerrard at the Q, take the Jags give the points.  *Fantasy Impact:  Personally I might not start LT this week, think about that.  Also bench Young if you haven’t already.   

Kansas City
Indianapolis  -14.5  44

If Selvin young can run for +100 and a TD on the KC defense then what do you think Joseph Addia is going to do to them especially after a frustrating loss to SD last week.  Huard is no match for the Indy D lineman and really without LJ running the rock the future just doesn’t seem that bright.  If Indy doesn’t cover the 14.5 then its because they lost it for themselves. Take Indy give the points.  *Fantasy Impact:  Addia owners are going to be giddy on Sunday, Peyton will rebound from his 6 Int’s last week and put up at least 30 points.  If your stuck with Priest Holmes, I’m sorry. 

Oakland
Minnesota  -5.5  35.5

I think this matchup will be like 2 sumo wrestlers trying to push each other around, but really not going far.  Minnesota’s season came to an abrupt stop last week when Rookie RB Adrian Peterson tore his LCL which may not be season ending but whenever the return is it will be too little too late.  Oakland’s run game isn’t hurt it just seems to have become non-existant, and will fare no better against the Vikings run D.  This will be a very los scoring game and just a bunch of pushing and shoving.  Oakland D will have to step and stop Chester Taylor, but I doubt it.  Vikings will cover the points.  *Fantasy Impact:  I wouldn’t play any players from either team except for the Vikings D and Chester Taylor, but even thats a little risky. 

Cleveland  -2.5  43.4
Baltimore

If Cleveland wants to prove they can make the playoffs then they better not screw up this week!  Baltimore is just being punished lately and it seems like they enjoy it because I haven’t seen any change in their game.   The Brownies were sooo close last week, (the crowd always loves an upset) but alas Big Ben stepped up and put an end to all the dreams.   I really like Cleveland to bounce back and the way the Ravens secondary has been playing, Braylon Edwards should be running circles around them.  The Ravens need to get back to .500 to keep the development going in that club if they don’t then the rest of the season is a waste. Cleveland is gonna roll on them, give the points!  *Fantasy Impact:  Michael Clayton should have a decent game if McNair can get it together.  Both Edwards and Winslow should be great and Jamal Lewis will suffer.

Pittsburgh  -9.5  40.5
NY Jets

The Jets were officially eliminated from the playoffs in week 10 and now they need to focus on building for the future and they have alot of young guys getting invaluable experience because there is no pressure, its all learning experience. Pittsburgh just about lost it for themselves last week, but sure enough they come from behind and win by a field goal.  It sucks!  Anyways this seems like the perfect time for the Jets to pull off the upset and get a jump start for next season.  This is my upset pick of the week!!! Jets win straight up!  *Fantasy Impact:  Kellen Clemens is getting the start, he won’t have a great game, but he should put up decent numbers which will in turn feed Laverneous Coles and Jerricho Cotchery.  I’m sure Willie Parker will get his +100 yds and a TD, I think Big Ben has a brain fart this week and they lose.

Tampa Bay  -3  35.5
Atlanta

Has anyone else noticed that Atlanta has won 2 games in