The 2007 Stanley Cup finals start tonight and already it looks like a mismatch.  Many had foreseen Anaheims rise through the ranks and they were some what of a favorite to get here, however the Ottawa Senators surprised everyone!!!  Not only did Ottawa get here, but they made statements on their way.  In their path to the Cup were the Pittsburgh Penguins, NJ Red Devils, and the Buffalo Sabres.  Each team had a high powered offense (Buffalo had the leading offense in the league) and was obliterated by the Ottawa defense led by Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov.  They came into the playoffs seeded #4 and no one expected this out of them, they are big, physical, hungry and most importantly determined to finish what they started…which looks to be a dominating series of victories to win their first ever Stanley Cup!!!

Anaheim on the other hand is more a finess team who was half expected to be here, they play a smooth fast tempo offense and like to control the rythem of the game.  They seem to be physically smaller that Ottawa and if they can’t keep the Senators off tempo then its going to be a tough series for the Ducks, I just don’t see Anaheim able to handle the big guys from Ottawa who are known to slow teams down and then just pound on them and slowly wear them down, thats exactly what they did to the Sabres, they stopped the offense dead in its tracks and then proceeded to pound on them and get in a sloppy goal here and there, but just enough to win the game. Right now the odds to win the Cup is pretty even with the Mighty Ducks favored at -120 and the Senators -110 this is due mostly to the fact that in the event of a game 7 it will be played in Anaheim.  The line of game 1 for tonight is Anaheim -135 with Ottawa +115 and the over/under on goals is 5.  I really can’t make a pick for the winner, but I do like the under 5 goals as both teams will really be feeling each other out tonight and Anaheims offense will try to find an answer for Ottawa’s defense and viceversa, I doubt there will be a scoring frenzy.  I think that the fact that Ottawa virtually came out of nowhere to dominate the playoffs is a testament to the future and my money is on Ottawa to win the whole thing in 6 games.

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The Utah Jazz have found life!!!

 Yes on Saturday night they crushed the San Antonio Spurs by 26 points, everything was working for them.  Williams had 31 points and eight assists, and Boozer had 27 points and 12 rebounds, but it was the emergence of their supporting cast on the bench in the second half that helped the Jazz enjoy the kind of route the Spurs had the first two games….and then some.  The 26-point margin of defeat was San Antonio’s worst of the season.    

While the Jazz played great, the Spurs played horrible,  Duncan got into foul trouble early and you could tell that he was changing his game to compensate, but they were ineffective adjustments against a very aggresive Mehmet Okur who held Duncan to only 16 points and 8 rebounds.  The whole San Antonio team looked like they didn’t really want to be there…Bruce Bowen, and Robert Horry were held to a mere 5 points a piece and you could tell there there was no focus and in fact maybe a little arrogance on the Spurs part who came into game 3 up 2-0 in the series.   Even Gregg Popovich admitted that maybe his team had gotten a little too comfortable.  One thing is for sure, Williams and Boozer do not want to go home yet and a win tonight could put pressure on the Spurs.  The current line is San Antonio -1.5 points.  Personally after the whipping that Utah shelled out the other night, I think they are very capable of winning again tonight and you should take the points, I gotta think that San Antonio is getting tired after that long stretch with Phoenix and this lose might be enough to shake their rythem, plus the Jazz are 7-0 at home this season versus San Antonio and I don’t see any reason why the streak should end tonight! Bet the JAZZ to win.

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So like I promised, heres a rundown of all the fights and the odds for saturday night.  I’ll start at the bottom and work my way to the main event.

 To start off the night we have 2 light heavyweight fighters in Carmelo “The Fury” Marrero(6-1-0) vs Wilson Gouveia(8-4-0).  Niether fighter is particularly well know however the odds are favoring Gouveia at -280  (risk $280 to win $100) with a comeback of +220 on Marrero(risk $100 to win $220).  Gouveia is a Brazilian jiu jitsu blackbelt who likes to utilize takedowns and chokeouts while Marrero also utilizes the takedown with his background in wrestling.  In this case I will have to take the underdog simply because neither fighter has an advantage over the other and if your getting more than 2 to 1 in a UFC fight and both fighters are equal then I have to take the dog.

Next up is a lightweight bout between Jeremy”Little Heathen”Stephens(13-1-0) and Din “Dinyero” Thomas(22-7-0).  Stephens is an up and comer who at 20 years of age has already made a name for himself in the midwest MMA circuit and was scratched from a championship event after getting the UFC offer earlier this week.  His age and inexperience will be a huge factor when going up against a UFC veteran like Din Thomas.  The current line is Stephens +260 (risk $100 to win $260) while Din Thomas is a huge favorite at -300(risk $300 to win $100).  Niether fighter is particularly great, but Stephens does have a promising career ahead of him especially if he can pull off an upset on saturday night, however his lack of experience in the octagon may be his downfall and this is why I have to go with Thomas in this instance, but I will wait to see if the line come down at all and I can get some buy back with him on the day of the fight.

 Next on the card will be yet another light heavyweight bout between Sean Salmon(9-2-0) and Alan Belcher(9-3-0).  Salmon trains with former UFC middleweight champ Rich Franklin and is on the Team Jorge Gurgel fight team out of West Chester, Ohio which means that he is a wrestler and will look to shoot for the take down against a taller more nimble Belcher.  Belcher who is a last minute entry filling in for an injured Eric Schafer is more of a standup striker type of a fighter and will use his legs against a smaller, stouter Salmon.  The current lines have Salmon favored at -125(risk $125 to win $100) and Belcher a close underdog at -105(risk $105 to win $100).  Now I believe that this last minute change has put a big kink in Salmon’s plans as he has been trainging to fight another wrestler in Eric Schafer and all of a sudden he is fighting a standup striker who is bigger than him.  Now his whole game plan changes and he has to be prepared to fight on his feet.  On the other side, Belcher will have to have his full takedown defense working to ward off Salmon’s superior wrestling skills.   For this fight I like the big guy Belcher, right now hes super cheap and I am looking for a knockout so the striker seems like the obvious choice.

Next up, light heavyweight Brazilian born Thiago Silva(9-0-0) vs James “Sandman” Irvin(12-3-1).   This should be one of the better fights on the card, both fighters are standup strikers and have proven to give entertaining performances throughout their careers, it should be an all out war and there will definantly be a KO probably second round.  Silva is a heavy favorite at -230(risk $230 to win $100) while the comeback on Irvin is +190(risk $100 to win $190).  Before looking at the lines I would have definantly bet Silva to whip him, but upon further review I don’t like to pay more than 2 to 1 for a favorite in UFC where it is very common for the underdog to win.  I probably won’t take a position on this fight unless I throw a small just for fun wager Irvin simply because hes coming off a win at UFC 65 and is a talented fighter who is very capable of getting the win.

Following the Silva fight is a middleweight bout between Kalib Starnes(9-2-1) and Chris “The Crippler” Leben(16-3-0).  Both fighters are coming off of loses and both are hungry to get back to winning.  Leben is best known for his appreance on Ultimate Fighter 1 that launched his career with the UFC, but has become bitter and unhappy with his contract and is looking to get picked up by another MMA fight league this tells me that his heart isn’t in it and before I even look at the line I like Starnes, simply because he has more to prove.  Current lines have Leben favored at a whopping -230(risk $230 to win $100) and Starnes at +190(risk $100 to win $190).  Both fighters can standup and strike as well as go to the floor.  I definantly like Starnes in this one.

Yet another light heavyweight bout on the card is oldschooler Houston Alexander(6-1-0) vs top contender Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine(12-3-1).  This to me is a huge mismatch between a cinderella man in Alexander and the established and feared Jardine. Without even getting into it, the current line has Jardine as the obvious huge favorite at -600(risk $600 to win $100) and Alexander at +400(risk $100 to win $400).  Obviously I like Jardine to wipe the floor with this guy, but I’m not going to put up $600 to prove it!!!

Next up, another Middleweight bout between Terry Martin(17-2-0) and Ivan Salaverry(12-4-1).  Both fighter have exceptional experience, but Terry Martin is just the better fighter.  Martin will stalk his oppenents around the ring and likes to fight in close contact while Salaverry prefers to dance around and pick his shots from the outside.  Vegas must be out of their collective minds because they currently have Salaverry favored at -150(risk $150 to win $100) with Martin at +120(risk $100 to win $120) you can be sure that I will be all over Martin on this one, it looks like the line is reversed!!!

Now I’ll take a look at the main undercard of the night, a Welterweight bout between Josh “The Peoples Warrior” Burkman(19-3-0) vs Karo “The Heat” Parisyan(24-4-0).  With as much experience as these 2 have it would be hard to determine the odds, however in all of Vegas’s wisdom they have Parisyan a heavy favorite at -260(risk $260 to win $100) while Burkman is at an astonishing +200(risk $100 to win $200).  Parisyan is a Judo specialist and will want to standup and stike against Burkman and why not? It seems to have been working with a 24-4-0 record and he is also feeling neglected by the UFC for not being recognized as a top contender which drove him to negociate a title shot should he win saturday night while all the more building his confidence and drive.  But, do not count out Burkman who is comfortable on the ground as well as his feet, both fighters have alot of potential and when you look at the line it seems that all the value is on Burkman, after the weigh in I will watch where the line moves, but its looking like another bet on the underdog for me.

Finally, THE MAIN EVENT:  Light Heavyweights Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell vs Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in a rematch of a 2003 pridefight in which Jackson won by TKO in the second round.  Oh but wait!!! Theres more to the story, first of all you have to understand that Chuck was battling a stomach flu before the fight and was probably more focused on not shiting himself in front of a packed stadium then the task at hand, fighting Jackson.  Also, Chuck had torn some ligaments or something of that nature in his shoulder, which you can imagine severely hindered his fighting ability.  Everyone urged him not to take the fight but being the guy that he his, he went out and fought anyways.  Since that 2003 loss Chuck has been undefeated and seems more conditioned and ready as well as healthy.  The current line has Chuck as a modest favorite at        -185(risk $185 to win $100) with Jackson the underdog at +155(risk $100 to win $155).  The line originally opened with Chuck -260 and Jackson +200, now that the line has had time to adjust we can see that the general public like Jackson to repeat and take over the Light Heavyweight belt, well I won’t say much, but I will say this…..THE PUBLIC IS WRONG WRONG WRONG!!! I like Chuck to defend the belt no problem.

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Well I waited to see what would happen with all this dog fighting business surrounding the already troubled Michael Vick, but I can wait no more.

First of all, let me say that I am a big Michael Vick fan and he was and may still be my fantasy football quarterback.  However, you would think that after getting caught with a bong at the airport would have been enough to get him straightned out and especially after the horrible season he had. But no, now hes being implicated in a dog fighting ring (I’m assuming pitbulls) that apparently were held in one of his homes in rural Virginia.  What I don’t understand is how he can be a franchise player for a professional football team and still act like hes in the ghetto.  I mean what the hell is wrong with him, his little brother had the same problem, had a promising career ahead of him at Virginia Tech and then gets booted for weapons charges.  The must be some kinda gene in the Vick family that gives them tremendous talent and horrible judement.  This latest incident might be the straw that breaks the camels back, he played horribly last season, gave the fans the finger, busted for marijuana, and now organized dog fighting.  Whats his deal?  What happened to the Michael Vick that made people believe that the Falcons could win a superbowl, he is a model for the future quarterback, mobile, rocket arm, and playmaker.  Now it seems that it has all gone up in smoke(if you know what i mean).  All I can say is that IF he is still on the Falcons team come August he will have to quit being ghetto and start acting like a professional, he owes it to the fans, the Falcons organization and the NFL, I think Ricky Williams should give him a call and tell him its not worth it!!!  I don’t think he would enjoy the cold weather of the CFL. Bottom line…. from me to you Michael Vick, “GET YOUR SHIT TOGETHER”

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This Saturday night at 10:00pm est Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell will square off against an old adversary in Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in which Liddell will be defending his belt in a World Light Heavyweight Championship bout.

This isn’t the first time the two have fought, the first bout took place back in 2003 at a Pride Fighting event in Japan. Jackson defeated Liddell by TKO in the second round after a storm of punches finally wore down Liddell. Since then, both fighters have been undefeated. Making his debut to the UFC in UFC 67 Jackson pummeled Marvin Eastman by way of a KO in the second round and had earned the right to fight for the Light Heavyweight belt facing a familiar foe in Chuck Liddell.

The Breakdown:

Both fighters have dominated the Light Heavyweight division all over the world and this rematch should be nothing short of an all out war.  Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell has a standup striker style that allows him to use his fists as his main weapons and likes to stand his oppponents up with his fists and then slip in a high kick to the head.  He also makes it a point to stay very loose and on his feet, which would indicate that he is not comfortable on the ground and wrestling his opponents is the last thing he wants to do. Liddell is 9 years the senior to Jackson and at 37 years of age, you have to think that Liddell will not want to go the distance and he will try to setup the KO early in the fight. This could be a very dangerous strategy against a younger opponent who has already beaten you.  However, I don’t see an alternative for Chuck, Jackson is almost 10 years his junior and has proven over and over again that it is very difficult to square him up for a knockout hit.  In order to win I think Chuck will have to bait him in and then look for the powerful counter to try and catch him off guard, much the same way he did against Tito Ortiz in UFC 66.  I just don’t believe that Chuck can get into a punching contest or a wrestling match with a younger and what looks to be, a stronger opponent in Quinton Jackson.  Quinton Jackson also has a standup stiker style, but is also not afraid to pick up opponents and slam them into the floor.  Jacksons biggest advantage is that he has already beaten Liddell once and will probably follow the same strategy again this time around, “if it aint broke, don’t fix it!!!”  He can go out and win quick if he just stands up and starts off the fight by stalking Liddell and taking control of the Octagon.  There is no size difference between the 2 and it will basically come down to who can establish a rythem first and start timing their opponents for the eventual counter punch/kick for a knockout.  Thats right, you heard it hear, there WILL be a knockout in this fight, there is no lovelost between these 2 and there will definanlty be some fireworks, if not for strategy then purely for the fact that these 2 REALLY don’t like each other.  The line on the fight is available at GamblersPalace.com, currently it is Liddell -190 (risk $190 to win $100)and Jackson +150 (risk $100 to win $150).  I would have to say that earlier in the month the value on Jackson was excellent at +200 now that the touts have come in and opinions have come out the line has moved way down into more realistic numbers, Chuck was a fan favorite which is why he opened so high, but the fact is, is that Jackson is a talented and tough fighter who has already gone up against some of the top fighters in the business.  This is a tough fight to pick with no overwhelming odds to sway opinion, Jackson is no slouch and I think that at +150 there is enough value to at least throw $50 on him, but I will wait until the weigh in on friday to make a decision.  Another notable fight will be Welterweights Josh “The Peoples Warrior” Burkman vs Karo “The Heat” Parisyan.  Karo  looks to be the more experienced fighter with a record of 24-3, however Josh Burkman has risen quite rapidly through the welterweight division in the UFC and has proven hes a force to be delt with.  The current lines are Parisyan -300 (risk $300 to win $100)  and Burk +220 (risk $100 to win $220).  Without too much knowledge about these 2 fighters I will have to considr the value placed on Burk and whether or not I think an upset is in the works, I mean hey its the UFC, stranger things have happened.  I will also have to wait to see the weighins before I make a play, but I’m leaning towards the underdog, strictly for the value.   I’ll have an updated picks blog out later this week after handicapping the rest of the fights on the card.

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The second leg in the chase for the Triple Crown.

The 132nd Preakness will take place on Sat May 19th at 6:00pm est on NBC. This year only 3 of the precedding Derby runners are attending, out of the field of 9 the favorites in the sportsbook right now are: Street Sense +130, Curlin +350, and Hard Spun +250, the rest of the field all have high value right now!!!
In the past it seems like there is always a surprise win by a huge underdog in at least one of the 3 legs of the Triple Crown, this year I am choosing the Preakness for the huge upset to come in. Out of the underdog field I like King Of The Roxy +1750, he is a good runner with great value at the moment. Hes already won at Gulf Stream, he came in second at the Santa Anita Derby and is trained by Todd Pletcher. If you have read my past blog on the Kentucky Derby you already know that I like any horse that wins at Gulf Stream, I don’t know why, but I do. I think that a Win, Place, Show bet on King of the Roxy is the play for tomarrow.

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I had a dream Monday night…..I was just a flash for a second, I can remember it vividly, I saw a score on ESPN and it had Chicago Bulls on top and Detroit Pistons on the bottom,  the score read 125 on top and 92 on the bottom.  Then yesturday morning I took a look at the board and saw that Detroit was -7.5 points and playing at home.  I shrugged off my dream as my brain just taunting me because I had picked them to win the championship back in November at +2200 and now it looks as if they would be out in 5 games against Detroit.  Then last night about 20 minutes before the game started I checked the line again and it was still -7.5 on Detroit, however the moneyline was up to +320 on Chicago, meaning that if I bet $100 on Chicago winning the game I would win $320.  I thought back to my dream of seeing the final score of 125 to 92 and right then I made a decision and put down $100 on the supposed “Baby Bulls”…….

Well if you saw the game or read the paper today you will see that my sixth sense was right and Miss Cleo aint got shit on me!!!   I might have been wrong about the 125 points for the Bulls, but I called out the 92 for the Pistons and should have bet the over.  Who can deny that the Bulls are on fire!!! Kirk Hinrich has emerged as the well rounded player that many had hoped he would be and has brought a certain rythem to the Bulls that is allowing them to beat the Pistons by more than 20 points.  All the Bulls have stepped up and decided that they aren’t ready to go home yet.  They controlled every aspect of the game last night, causing turnovers, dominating the rebound numbers and playing fast pace high scoring offense. It is true that they are a young team and many think that they still have to pay their dues and knock on the door first before winning it all, but this Chicago team is displaying the attitude and pride and ability it takes to win a championship, I mean they SWEPT the defending champs,  I still like my Futures bet and have the line coming out for game 6 Chicago -2 points.  Detroit right now is in a state of shock and they should be, they are going back to Chicago for game 6 and if they lose will push a game 7 at home where they have already lost.  One other factor that should motivate the Bulls is that NO TEAM in the history of the NBA has ever come back down 3-0 to win a best of seven series, which under the current circumstances is very attainable for Chicago.  If they can pull this off I believe that Chicago would have no problem dealing with the Cleveland LeBron’s and they would coast into the NBA Finals. Meanwhile back in the West, we know that Utah is already in the Conference Finals and the Spurs and Suns seem content to just beat on each other and in the end will produce a bruised up team that will be tired from a 7 game series and could be in danger of losing to the Jazz.  I see Chicago having no problem matching up with the Jazz, thus I just layed out for you how my futures bet will hit.  By the way, for thursday nights game, my pick is obviously the Bulls but I will wait to see where the line goes to see if the moneyline is a better value.

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Monday night if you happened to be watching the Phoenix vs San Antonio game, in the last minute of the game that Phoenix had already won, Steve Nash took what they say in Football as a “decleater”.  Meaning that Robert Horry checked him so hard that his feet flew up over his waist.  As soon as it happened Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw cleared the bench to aid there team MVP.  A large altercation followed with a lot of pushing and yelling and eventually the court was cleared and the game ended. It was an obvious flagrant foul from an obviously frustrated Spurs team that hasn’t been able to put away the Suns. 

The out come of last nights final minute scuffle has had some serious implications on how this series might end and will surely leave one team crying foul after its all over.  From the Phoenix side of the bench Amare Stoudemire and Borris Diaw have been suspended for game 5 in Phoenix and Robert Horry of the Spurs was suspended for the next 2 games. Now to suspend a player for rushing to the aid of his teammate??? How can that be cause for suspension, it was obviously a flagrant foul and Horry was in the wrong, thats probably the reason you didn’t see anyone from the Spurs bench get up because they all knew he was wrong and should probably catch an ass whooping, neither of the suspended Suns threw a punch or anything like that they just got in his face to let him know.   The fact that NBA Vice President Stu Jackson saw fit to suspend 2 of the best players on the Suns team in the middle of a second round playoff series with probably the best team in the league and after they had just come from behind and tied the series.  It is just ridiculous, unreasonable and irresponsible!!!  The Spurs have more than enough fire power to fill the void left by Horry, however in Phoenix this could lead to their demise, whos left to guard Tim Duncan.  Not only is this ruling affecting the Suns chances but has thrown all the betting lines out of whack.  Now the line for game 5 is San Antonio -3 points, where it should have been Phoenix -3, the line has reversed!!! because 2 key players have been lost.  The game is tonight and after looking at the board I gotta say that I WON’T TOUCH THIS GAME.  I will be rooting for the Spurs, but I don’t trust them to be able to handle the adjustment.

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