Well we are through the 1st quarter of the year and there are some surprising results in the race for Decision 2008. First of all, when the odds to win the presidency first came out last December the favored candidates were Hilary Clinton for the Democrats and John McCain for the Republicans. Now a quarter into the year and it seems that Barack Obama has raised $25 million dollars just $1 million shy of Hilarys $26 mil. Clinton has also lost ground to John Edwards, who has proven to have retained voters from his 2004 campaign. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani’s late announcement to run has the odds makers recalculating everything and surprisingly he has surpassed John McCain in the polls with an astounding 46% percent of republicans polled saying they would “definatly” or “probably” vote for Guiliani (according to CNN.com).
As far as which party will win the presidency it is still unclear. Even though the current administration is scoring low in the popularity polls does not necessarily mean that the country wants a Democrat in the Oval Office. And just because the Democrats have control of the House and Senate does not mean there WILL be a Democratic prez either. Bill Clinton was elected while the Republicans ruled the House and Senate.
The Democrats top 3 players to watch the odds for are: Hilary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. Hilary Clinaton was the early favorite and now stands at +250. I don’t think America is ready for a woman president, plus I don’t think that shes a strong enough Democrat to handle the difficult situations abroad. Barack Obama has definatly made his mark on the map by raising $25 million already and slowly, but surely stealing away votes from Hiliary. Obama currently at +600 to win is realtively young on capital hill and some as I do, think that hes got potential, but this is not his year. His precense will be felt and he will drive debates, but he is really just setting the stage for a long prosperious political career. Finally, John Edwards +600 to win. I think that Edwards will gain popularity on the Democratic side as the election gets closer, but is still lacking something that makes the American public believe in him and will ultimatly force him to take the Vice Prez position again. Kinda like when Bob Dole ran in the 90’s, he had alot of popularity, but came up short both times. So if your voting Democrat I would bet early on a Democrate who is making a serious run and at a good value like +1000 and over. And then as we got closer to the primarys go back and check the odds.
The Republicans top 3 players to watch the odds for are: John McCain, Rudy Guiliani, and Mitt Romney. John McCain is currently listed at +350, he remains the Republicans favorite and enjoys the name and face recognition that comes with a long political career, although he seems to be sending mixed messages to voters, as a result he has lost alot of votes to rival candidate Rudy Guiliani who seems to be casualy and comfortably slipping into his position of a serious candidate. Rudy Guiliani currently listed at +300 seems to be the best value your gonna get right now. I only see his odds going lower. The man known as “America’s Mayor” Mr Guiliani made a whole heap of people happy when he threw his hat into the ring, his experience as New York’s mayor and dealing with the whole 9/11 tragedy has given him a kind of hands on, ground zero experience that adds to his credibility. Not to mention he is very Wall Street friendly which is always good for the economy. He has proven hes tough and at least seems to be more down to earth and in touch with the general public than do the other candidates which I think will go a long way with voters. And lastly, Mitt Romney currently at +1800. This is a testament to how much of a chance Romney has to win. The only reason he is in my top 3 is because he raised a whole lotta money. Now alot of people don’t know this, but Mitt Romney is a Republican Govener from Massachusettes which is a Blue state and is a Mormon. Now the one thing I do know about Mormons is that they can raise serious money, basically because the Mormon church is backing him and they COLLECT from EVERY member. So the fact that he can raise alot of money is no testament to his actual popularity, plus I know that the American People will not elect a mormon to office. So I think that Rudy Guiliani is your Republican Nominee for President and if he doesn’t drop the ball and there are no scandels brought up by one of his ex-wives I think hes the best value right now.
The odds on which party to win will most likely stay at a 50 cent line so at -125 on both sides, it will probably be the best value you can get until the more popular candidates start to stand out and sway the line 10 and 15 cents.
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