I missed on both my picks last week so it would probably be a good idea to take the reverse pick for the next week or so.  This week I will feature 3 games, first on Thursday night Louisville travels to Rutgers and on Saturday afternoon we have the SEC championship game between (1)Alabama vs. (4)Florida in which the winner may play for the BCS National Championship.  Then on Saturday night the Big 12 Championship between (20)Missouri vs (2)Oklahoma.  Below you will the spreads and my picks…

Thursday Night

Louisville Cardinals vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights
7:30 PM ET, December 4, 2008
Rutgers Stadium , Piscataway , NJ
Spread: Rutgers -11

My Pick: I really don’t understand the spread, Rutgers is not that good and QB Mike Teel has not been consistent.  The only thing they really have going for them is that they are truely a spread offense and do not rely on any one star to get things going, which can really keep opposing defenses on their toes.  The Cardinals QB Hunter Cantwell is not going to be anywhere near the draft next year and his performance thus far is sub par.  They will have to turn to freshman RB Victor Anderson who is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and 8 TD’s on the year.  This could be the ace up the sleeve for Louisville as the Rutgers run D is hardly the pride of that team.  I think that this is going to be a ball control game for the Cardinals that they have to keep the pressure on Teel to force mistakes.  This is way too many points.  Take the Cards, give the points.

Saturday Afternoon

(1)Alabama Crimson Tide vs (4)Florida Gators
4:00 PM ET, December 6, 2008
Georgia Dome , Atlanta , GA
SEC Championship Game – CBS
Spread: Florida -9.5

My Pick:  Tebow is obviously the better QB when you match him up with Bama’s John Parker Wilson, but its the Crimson Tide’s overall play on offense and a stingy defense that has made them the #1 team in the country and the consistency of RB Glen Coffee has alot to with that.  There is no doubt that the Tide will test the tough Gator defense and I think they key on the run.  Florida is a heavy favorite for the fact that they put up ALOT of points ranking 3rd in the nation in points scored.  They also have a top rated defense that keeps opposing offenses scratching their heads.  The main reason behind the -9.5 is the Tebow factor, he is more of a high flying high profile QB and if all else fails he finds a way.  You can’t say that about JP Wilson, but it never gets to that point for him because of the effectiveness of the overall offense which is very much about slow and steady.  I do think the spread is a bit high and I really don’t like the half point hook.  Buy it up to +10 and take the points.  Bama is a great team and I think that the more established profile of the Gators and Tebow is inflating the line.

Saturday Night

(20)Missouri Tigers vs (2)Oklahoma Sooners
8:00 PM ET, December 6, 2008
Arrowhead Stadium , Kansas City , MO
Big 12 Championship – ABC
Spread: Oklahoma -17

My Pick:  I don’t understand how Missouri fell from grace so quickly.  Sure they lost a couple games, but on paper these guys are one of the best teams in the country.  So whats with the huge spead???  Here are some stats for you.  QB-A: 75% comp rate, 3880 yds passing, 34 TD’s, 13 INT’s.  QB-B: 68% comp rate, 4080 yds passing, 46 TD’s, 6 INT’s.  RB-A: 152 carrys, 963 yds, 6.3 avg, 17 TD’s.  RB-B: 179 carrys, 1002 yds, 5.6 avg, 14 TD’s.  The A players are Chase Daniel and Derrick Washington and the B players are Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray.  The point is that both teams stars are very comparable in stats which translates into the overall offense.  The only concern is Mizz U’s defense which will have to find a way to put pressure on Bradford and slow them down.  With the total at 79 you can expect alot of fireworks and I think that Daniel and co. are the real thing they just have a different style, but they can compete.  The -17 is an insult, take the Tigers and the points.  

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