Week 12 was full of surprises and close calls, from Gus Ferrote fumbling on the 1 yard line to Kurt Warner dropping the ball in the end zone in over time, hearts were broken and playoff pictures got a little more clearer. This week should be just as exciting and it all starts with the NFC’s version of the Colts vs Pats when the cinderella story that is Brett Favre and the Packers head to Dallas to take on Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Both teams are 10 – 1 and have high hopes of securing home field advantage thru the playoffs. Heres the rundown of matchups this week along with the spread and over/under totals as well as the fantasy football impact each matchup has on your players.
THURSDAY NIGHT
This is the game of the week by far and perhaps a preview of the NFC Championship. Both teams have high flying offenses, however the run game in Dallas is far more productive. Favre looks unstoppable and the whole Packers team is playing so loose its a little scary, you can tell that both these teams are having fun and despite the implications of the outcome you can be sure that both Favre and Romo will be smiling at the end. The Pack has not lost on the road this year, however I don’t think they have played anyone with the caliber of the Cowboys and much of their success will depend on Ryan Grant and the ground game, 7 points is alot to give Favre and company and thats why I think you gotta take the points, they might not win, but it will be closer than 7, take the Pack and the points! *Fantasy Impact: Last week ALL Packers WR’s eat big and I’m not talking about turkey. They should all be good starts this week again and I think if you have Ryan Grant you have to start him. On the other side of the ball I would be very weary of starting the Cowboys RB’s, the Green Bay run D is extremely good this year and I think that Marion Barber and Julius Jones have been giving flash in the pan performances this year and could be very well shut down. Owens is always a start and will be a good matchup against the overrated Packer secondary.
SUNDAY
First of all, I would like to send my thoughts out to the family of Sean Taylor, it seems like such a waste of life and talent. OK, neither of these teams have much to look forward to they are both coming off disappointing losses and I really don’t see much fireworks happening although with the death of their teammate I think Clinton Portis will lead a spirited campaign and completely drub the Bills. The return of Trent Edwards will make little difference and I think the Bills are already looking forward to next year. *Fantasy Impact: Portis is going to have a huge day and I think that the Washington D could have one of those games that only happenes once a season, something out of the movies with a heart pumping soundtrack.
Detroit looked like the cinderella team that was destined to make the playoffs for the first time this decade, but now after losing 3 games in a row they may be in jeopardy of letting the dream slip away. They got schooled by the Pack last week, but you really can’t hold it against them, I mean its Brett Favre. The Vikings are on a roll and now it looks as if rookie sensation Adrian Peterson could be healthy enough in time for Sunday. Also consider that the Vikings D is on top of their game coming off a huge 4 INT’s 3 of which were returned for TD’s they are feeling really good about themselves and going up against the pass happy Mike Martz offense with a shaky Kitna that seems to be airing it out in desperation. They have alot of talent in Detroit, but they are not ready this year. If AP is healthy then its going to be ugly for the Lions. Minnesota is the play give the points. *Fantasy Impact: Kevin Jones seems like the play against a shaky Minnesota run D, AP obviously if hes healthy and if not hopefully you picked up Chester Taylor hes been great lately. Minnesota is a one sided team with the run and Detroit was one sided with the pass, but I think they change the game plan this week and go to the run so beware of starting Lions WR’s.
They were so close last week against Pitt and was rooting for Miami all the way, plus with the return of Ricky WIlliams how can you not root for the winless Dolphins. The Jets on the other hand have a whole other situation, I just don’t understand it. They finally started playing Kellen Clemens like they should have at the beginning of the season they brought in Thomas Jones to invent a run game they got the talent at WR and still Coach “Mangenious” can’t find the winning combination to put the Jets on the path of W’s. This is a classic rivalry in the NFL, but this year both teams are soo bad that I don’t see it being a very exciting game or perhaps for that very reason it will be. Regardless, I love Miami this week at home, there is no reason why they should go winless, John Beck will assume the starting position for the rest of the season, Ricky Williams has no choice, but to play well so he can at least get a 1 year contract and make enough to buy a bag of grass! Ted Ginn Jr. is coming around and him and Beck are creating valuable chemistry that will pay dividends next season. The play is definantly Miami this week! *Fantasy Impact: I bet Ginn Jr. is on the wire in many leagues simply because he had no one to throw him the ball, but I think all that changed, pick him and play him! Willie Parker ran all over the Fins run D and I think Thomas Jones will do the same, but only at a flex position. I don’t think either QB is worth starting, but desperate times calll for desperate measures so act accordingly.
I was on the edge last Sunday as I watched the Seattle D allow St. Louis led by Gus Ferrote of all people march down the field on what would be their last possesion and see them get to the 1 yard line with Stephen Jackson in the backfield! Luckily my boys held their ground oh and Gus Ferrote fumbled the snal on 4th down. (LMAO) What a scrub. Well the point is that that kinda play is not gonna fly this week at Philly. Philly seems to have found a flaw in the in-cred-i-ble (you have to say that in spanish for it to make sense) Patriots. Honestly I think that was just a hiccup on the Pats part and although the Eagles are a good team they are definantly beatable and I think if Seattle can keep it together long enough they can get the job done. DJ Hackett is out for the rest of the season, but it shouldn’t matter they are stacked at the WR spot and Mo Morris is solidifying his role as the starter and he should get Alexanders contract(but thats just my opinion). It looks like McScrub oops I mean McNabb is coming back, but I think that just hurts them and Westbrook is healthy so thats not good for the Seattle D, they did give up the booty against Jackson so the damage could be catasrophic! All this aside I think Hasselbeck studies Bradys game tape and picks apart the Philly secondary, it will be up to Westbrook to win it for them and I think Seattle needs this win to get over that hump and show everyone they belong in the playoffs despite how weak the NFC is. I like Seattle plus the points. *Fantasy Impact: Do not play Mo Morris he will get stuffed. Engram is now a #1 WR, I will definantly start him. Westbrook will eat big I suspect, and its killing me inside. Hasselbeck for sure, but not McScrub, I know I know all you McNabb owners are yelling and screaming and thinking I don’t know anything, but just wait and see.
Both of these teams are desperate for a win. Houston has a glimmer of chance for the playoffs and Tennessee is sputtering, they have completely shut down on the run game. I mean its like they forgot??? Well they better remember because Houston D gave up 134 yards to old ass Jamal Lewis! LenDale white should be able to carve out some ground, especially at home. Houston is another prime example of a team of young guys that got alot of talent, but were plagued by injuries and never got a chance to get a rythem going, I expect big things from them next year. That said I think Tennessee has more at stake and at home they should be able to get things going. For some reason the spread is at 4 which is a tricky numberI think its worth buying the half point down to 3.5 just in case you get that 24-20 score. So there it is the Titans buying it down to -3.5. *Fantasy Impact: If my theory holds true then I think Lendale White finally gets out of his slump this week,(man whats his deal???) Vince Young is still too jittery and I don’t think there is much of a pass game to talked of. I think Matt Schaub could put up some numbers, but then again my gut says no, so I translate that into either he has a killer game or e gets completely shut down…..flip a coin.
Jacksonville
Indianapolis -7 45
Now this is a very intresting, the Jaguars are 8-3 and Indy has kinda been put in their place. I think the Colts have lost their luster and they know it and while I stated previously a few weeks ago that I didn’t believe in the Jags, it looks as though I am eating those words. The Jags are hungry and a healthy Gerrard is making all the difference. There D is just getting it done and not making dumb mistakes. They will definantly make Addai earn every yard and be a constant annoyance to Reggie Wayne and Peyton will eat turf a couple times. Now this all might happen, but do I think it will be enough to get the W??? NO! Peyton and company are too tough at home and have too much pride I think they will win, but its going to be close. The Colts will win, but they WILL NOT cover the spread, take the points! *Fantasy Impact: I think this is gonna be a hard hitting defensive battle you gotta start your starters, but don’t get all giddy about it.
Man….Kansas City just can’t catch a break can they…LJ is back on the IR list, but Kolby Smith picked up the slack and made a game of it with 150 yards and a pair of TD’s, but then again that was against the Oakland run D which is shabadabadooooooooooo and thats being nice. I highly doubt that Smith will have the same production against the Charger D. LT broke the 10,000 yard bench mark, but had no TD’s and its really killing my fantasy team, jeez he was a disappointment. I would hope that he would reach down and grab a pair and come through with a 50 point performance this week which is definantly acheiveable if Norv Turner will just let him run. I think that KC got dealt a bad hand this season and know they just need to play for pride, but it won’t be enough to stop the Chargers, give the 5 points. *Fantasy Impact: My above statements say it all, start LT, bench Kolby Smith. Phil-leap Rivers should have a decent game, but he better watch last weeks game tape.
San Francisco
Carolina -2.5 35.5
San Fran finally got a W and Frank Gore came out to play last week. In all truth it was the Cardinals that actually lost the game not San Fran winning it. Carolina is still struggling to find an identity and it doesn’t look good in the foreseeable future. They don’t have a QB and their best hope is poor old 44 yr old Vinny T. I feel for him, I really do. I thought that Deshaun Foster might actually start earning his paycheck, but yet again I was disappointed last week. The Panthers haven’t won a game at home this season and thats pitiful. If Frank Gore comes out to play and Dilfer has the same kind of game as last week then its gonna be a long day for the Panthers. Take San Fran and the points. *Fantasy Impact: I think Frank Gore is gold Jerry GOLD!!! If you had to play Trent Dilfer then its ok. In deeper leagues if you have a San Fran WR then it might make you smile. I think that the San Fran D is a good matchup for Foster even though hes been flash in the pan lately.
Tampa didn’t look particularly strong last week against Washington at home and this is discouraging especially since they are 7-4 and have a good chance to make the playoffs. New Orleans looked like they were giving auditions, it seemed like everyone got a chance to run the ball and the Tampa run D is alot more stingy then the Carolina run D so the Saints better figure it out before Sunday. Brees is looking good in the air and I think his success continues at home. If Earnest Grahm can get his ground game going then it should make for quite a game. I think the Saints have been getting it done with Brees airing it out and he continues to do so this week. The Bucs have been winning games, but I don’t think they are showing us anything special that makes me believe. The Saints are the play and give the points. *Fantasy Impact: Pay attention to Colston and I think they stick with Bush this game instead of spreading it out. You gotta go with Garcia if you have already been starting him, he should put up decent numbers. Grahm obviously, but don’t expect much.
Kurt Warner threw for almost 500 yards last week and its not like Cleveland D is something to worry about. This game should be a pick instead of 1 point, but the bookmakers want to screw with you. I think that Lewis gets alot more touches this week and I don’t think that the AZ D can do anything about it. Derek Anderson continues to play well and I don’t see any slowing down. In the end I see a high scoring game and the winner will be the team that turns the ball over the least. In this case I gotta go with the home team, take AZ. *Fantasy Impact: You gotta start every player from each team, neither one has a defense to speak of so that means big scores from alot of guys.
Denver found out the hard way last week that when you kick to Devin Hester it is not a good thing. Oakland beat one of their most hated rivals in KC and Justin Fargus seems to have solidified his position at RB. Denver has found a new hero in Andre Hall and as of this writing Selvin Young still looks inactive. Oakland is notorious for giving up huge hards to opposing RB’s and with the way Hall ran on the Bears D he should get plenty more in Oakland. Denver also gives up alot on the ground, but not enough. Denver has the pass threat as well as the run and this makes them more potent and the winners this week in Oakland, however don’t get caught on the half point hook, you gotta buy it down to at least 3 points. *Fantasy Impact: I guess Fargus is the man in Oakland now so you gotta start him, Cutler should have a field day and connect with Stokely easily enough, but with these 2 teams nothing is consistent so beware.
Poor Poor Eli, I mean he got humiliated at home, and they were playing so well….The bears are no doubt fired up after Rexy threw that game winner, but the pass D was picked apart. I don’t think Grossman has redeemed himself quite yet and lucky for him Adrian Peterson stepped up and took the pressure off him. I think Eli gets it together this week and takes a long look at Cutlers games tape. If Chicago can’t adjust its gonna be tough on them. The offense will already have enough trouble with the Giants D and Rex may fold. One thing is for sure, they will not be kicking to Hester. I think the Giants roll on Chicago who is not playing like they have in the past. Give the lousy 1.5 points. *Fantasy Impact:
Well well well….Palmer finally came out to play last week, god he was killing my team. Pitt meanwhile got slowed by the weather and mud like turf more than the Miami D. No doubt they will be looking to get back to business this week in more favorable weather. The Cincy D actually put the stop on Tennessee last week and thats progress, so at least something positive is happening on that side of the ball. They will have to make alot more this week if they want to slow down Big Ben and Willie Parker. I think that Cincy is bringing it too little too late and Pitt is playoff bound no matter what, the spread is high and that means Cincy looks good, I like the Bengals and the points IF the D comes to play the offense will keep them in it. *Fantasy Impact: I think Cincy continues with the great offense and Pitt follows suit. I would not start Rudi Johnson if you can help it, but then again you might not have a choice. TJ should get some of those TD’s that newly appointed camera man Chad Johnson vultured from him. Hines, Parker, and whats his name you know the guy I’m talking about should all be good starts.
MONDAY NIGHT
New England -20.5 51.5
Baltimore
Baltimore has nothing going for them right now and I mean nothing. New England is still a little shocked that they almost let the perfect season slip away to the likes of Philly and career backup A.J. Feely, they will shake that off by Monday night and will not get fooled again. The spread says it all -20.5!!! Ray Lewis does not like that at all, it shows no respect. The bookmakers have a point when you really think about it, the Balt D is no longer the top D, I don’t even think they are in the top 10, Brady is out for blood just to prove that they are the team everyone thought they were and the whole Philly debacle was just a hiccup. This is going to be a one-sided beatdown and the Pats are blood thirsty! However, 20.5 is alot, but not enough, don’t be scared of the big number its less than 3 TD’s. Take the Pats light a candle and give the points! *Fantasy Impact: It seems like its the same line every week with the Pats, start’em ALL!!! Except for Jabroney, I mean Maroney, the Balt D can still stiffle the run. On the Balt side I think you can start Mcgahee, but don’t expect a breakout game.
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Agree totally that the Washington D will step up this week and put on a show in memory of Sean Taylor. With Portis and the offence controlling the ball the Bills are going to find it hard to amass yards and points.