I finally got my head on straight and turned it around last week going 9-5, bringing my yearly record to 63-60-4.  Just a hair above .500, this wee has some tasty matchups that I think the bookies are overlooking.  Below you will find the matchups for NFL Week 10 with the spreads and totals and my pick.

Teams on Bye Week:  Dallas, Tampa Bay, Washington, Cincinnati

Thursday November 6th

Denver Broncos
Cleveland Browns  -3  46
My Pick:  Brady Quinn will be getting the start this week for the Browns as head coach Romeo Crennal had officially announced the switch today.  The Denver defense is weak so if Quinn can keep his composure then he should have a decent day for a guy getting his first start of the year.  All the pressure will be on Denver and their offense who has just put Michael Pittman on IR and there really isn’t anyone left to run the ball, which means all they can do is pass against a secondary that shut down the Giants which means they have it in them to have a good game.  Denver D line can’t stop Jamal Lewis.  This is a great matchup to start the turnaround of a season and I think Cleveland gets it done, give the points.

Sunday November 9th

Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5  43.5
Detriot Lions
My Pick:  The Lions are still winless and the Jags playoff hopes are pretty much quelled and emotions have set in.  Rumors of insubordination in the locker room and reports that linebacker Mike Peterson is to be cut from the team have the Jags unfocused and not playing 100%.  Detriot has been getting closer and closer to a W and I think they get it together this week and finally get rid of the doughnut on their record.  Take the points.

Tennessee Titans  -3  38.5
Chicago Bears
My Pick:  Rex is still not that good, Tennessee is on a roll.  They both have great defenses so it should be low scoring, but the Titan run game is clicking and Chicago will be forced to throw.  As stated before, Grossman is not that good and hasn’t faced a  defense of this caliber in a long time, there are going to be INT’s and special teams will be very important.  Give the points

New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons -1  50
My Pick:  Matt Ryan is looking like a stud right now, he can read Roddy white and continuosly find the 20yd gain.  The Falcons gave up alot of yards to the Chargers and they have about the same talent on offense.  The Charger D is more high profile, but the Falcons at home have been very tough.  I think the homefield advantage makes the Falcons the play. Give the point.

St. Louis Rams
NY Jets  -9  44
My Pick:  The Jets need to bounce back to make a statement.  Brett ol Boy has been making alot of wild throws and in turn Thomas Jones is getting more and more work.  Cotchery is a little banged up, but he will play.  The Rams are still not that good and this whole Donnie Avery sensation will be shut down this week, S Jax is always a good bet, but if Brett can go to the air then he won’t be able to keep up.  Take the Jets, give the points. 

Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots  -3.5  41
My Pick:  This is a tough one.  Sammy Morris is still out for NE and Cassel is still not consistant.  The Bills are playing very well this season and Trent Edwards is healthy and should be able to deal with the NE secondary.  The defense has been ok, but nothing to get all excited about. I like the Pats at home, give the points.

Seattle Seahawks
Miami Dolphins  -8.5  43
My Pick:  Miami is on fire and it looks like the big Tuna has made the right moves and is building a quality team in Miami.  The Seahawks are still depending on Seneca Wallace who still doesn’t have anyone to work with.  The wildcat offense if they choose to use it should be enough to have the Seattle D running around like chickens with their heads cut off.  Miami covers, give the points.

Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings  -2.5  44.5
My Pick:  Packers are due for a win and Frerotte is still not that good, the Green Bay D can stop AP and harrass the WR’s enough to get it done, take the points

Carolina Panthers  -9.5  37.5
Oakland Raiders
My Pick:  This spread is dangerously close to being double digits for the home team and we never bet against the home team when they are getting double digits.  Sure Run DMC is still out and Fargas isn’t that good and there is no passing game to speak of.  Also consider the fact that the Carolina D is hot and Delhomme and company are getting done with a very effective Deangelo Williams.  I know it seems like a blowout is coming, but that Raiders will not be embarrassed again this week as they were last week when they went scoreless.  Wait until Sunday morning and then take the points once its moved to 10.

Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans  PK 42
My Pick:  A good offense against a good defense.  Rosenfels is getting the start, but it won’t matter much, I think Baltimore pounds on them both defensivly and then on the ground with their 3 pronged menu of McGahee, Rice, and McClaine.  Take the Ravens to win.

Kansas City Chiefs
San Diego Chargers  -15.5  47
My Pick:  I don’t know how this spread got so high, but I think its a little optimistic to think that just because San Diego is coming off a bye and everyone is healthy that they will just roll over the Chiefs.  Bare in mind that KC almost beat Tampa last week and barely lost by a field goal in OT.  They were leading that game by 21 points at one time against a top Tampa D.  KC is starting to get the pieces to fit and come together.  I think they give the Chargers a run for their money.  Take the points.

Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers  -3.5  39.5
My Pick:  The line has finally been released after the official injury report and Willie Parker will not be playing and Moore will start in his stead.  It is not clear whether Big Ben will be starting, but if not then Byron Leftwich is more than capabale of getting it done as he proved last week by beating the pants off of the Skins.  Indy/Manning struggled to get any kind of drive going last week and against some questionable Pats secondary. Pittsburgh D is a top rated pass defense and will eat Peyton up.  As far as I’m concerned 3.5 is a steal, give the points before it goes up.

Sunday Night Football

NY Giants
Philadelphia Eagles  -3  44
My Pick:  Philly is getting alot of love at the moment and it has been earned.  A healthy Brian Westbrook will surely test the Giants defensive line, but he will by no means have a field day.  And McScrubb I mean McNabb will be getting harrassed all day from the likes of Justin Tuck.  The Gigantes are looking prime for a repeat of last years performance and are hands down the best team in the NFC, the fact that the Eagles are favored in this game means the betting public is swaying opinion and they are wrong.  Brandon Jacobs has been running over opposing defenses and Eli and company are in the groove and not looking to slow down anytime soon.  Even Kevin Boss is getting in on the action and Eli is keeping the ball spread out.  The Eagles secondary can’t handle Burress and Toomer.  This seems like an obvious bad line so take the Giants and the points and watch them improve to 8-1.   

Monday Night Football November 10th

San Francisco 49′ers
Arizona Cardinals  -9.5  46.5
My Pick:  Can anyone stop Kurt Warner???  This guy is amazing, he has the best pass offense in the league and the San Fran secondary is not that good, so it is looking like another routing that the Cards will be dishing out.  Tim Hightower has emerged as the answer in AZ and all but put Edgerin James into retirement.  The 49′ers have been making progress and new coach Mike Singletary has brought a positive and optimistic attitude to the organization.  I still don’t think JT O’sullivan is the answer in San Fran, but if the defense can get it together it should even the playing field for them a bit and start to bring home the W’s.  This will not happen this week and the -9.5 is a steal, don’t get caught on the hook and buy it down to -9 which should be more than enough, I really doubt that the 49ers play above and beyond their norm this week and AZ is just looking too efficient on every aspect of offense to bet against them.  Give the points, but buy it down to 9.

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