Well as fast as my luck turned for the good it went right back to lousy last week when I went 5-7-1 to bring my yearly total to 54-55-4.  Nothing to brag about, but in all fairness the bookies beat up everyone last week so I wasn’t the only self titles tout that got banged up.  Lets see if I can turn it around this week with some quick picks.  Below are the spreads and totals for each matchup as well as my pick.

Teams on Bye Week:  New Orleans, San Diego, San Francisco, Carolina

Sunday November 2nd

Green Bay Packers
Tennessee Titans -5  41
My Pick:  The Titans have been soo strong at home all year and being the only team with a perfect record left in the NFL its hard to bet against them this week against the Packers who are fresh off their bye week.  While I think that Tennessee will win I think the 5 points is too much against a potent pass offense with the complement of Ryan Grant on the side to take the pressure off of the passing game.  Green Bay will step it up this week and they will cover, they may not win, but they will cover, take the points. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  -9  37.5
Kansas City Chiefs
My Pick:  Jeff Garcia is still at the helm and the Tampa defense is looking really strong, they may have faltered a bit against Dallas, but no one can deny they have some talent.  I don’t like this big spread at Kansas City and while I think Tampa will win I don’t think they blow them out by anymeans, but consider that Larry Johnson is not playing so I won’t be too optimistic about their chances.  I do believe the Chiefs have it in them to at least cover.  Take the points.

Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns  -1  37
My Pick:  This all depends on which Ravens team comes to play, will Flacco be the star or will they let the run game do all the talking for them?  Cleveland is kamakazi at best right now and I don’t trust them.  Take the lousy point and hope that McClaine comes to play.

Detriot Lions
Chicago Bears  -12.5  43
My Pick:  Da Bears!  ok Ditka in the Roman Colosseum with actual Lions?  DITKA by 17!.  Um, does anyone else remember what happened last time the Bears met the Lions?  Yeah it was a routing and that was before Orton got into the groove he is in now and is fresh off a bye week.  I think you get the picture.  Give the points, 12.5 is waaaay better than -13.

NY Jets
Buffalo Bills  -5.5  42
My Pick:  Why so little faith in the Jets?  Cotchery was on the injury report listed as game time decision, but then he blew up.  The Bills have been found out and they are not as good as they would like everyone to think.  I think Faaaveeeere’ rebounds and finds a way to get the W.  Take the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars  -7.5  40.5
Cincinnati Bengals
My Pick:  David Gerrard is finally playing up to everyones expectations and thats due to the O line pulling their weight.  Also the run game is as good as its always been.  Cincinnati still sucks and there is nothing on the horizon for them to smile about.  Take the Jags, give the points.

Houston Texans
Minnesota Vikings  -4.5  45.5
My Pick:  Matt Schuab is looking better and better lately and has found a friend in Andre Johnson.  Against the shabby Vikings secondary this is a no brainer what their game plan is.  I also think the Texans defense is playing better and will not allow AP to fool them.  Take the points.

Arizona Cardinals  -3  48
St. Louis Rams
My Pick:  The Lambs are suddenly growing into Rams and its all because of a rookie by the name of Donnie Avery.  AZ is always a threat in the air and they actually have more weapons to choose from which is why the S Jax factor doesn’t make a difference in this one.  The Cards will roll on them, give the points.

Miami Dolphins
Denver Broncos  -3.5  47.5
My Pick:  WOW!!!  This spread tells me that their is fear that the Fins will find a way to make the wildcat offense work in Denver against their shabby defense.  This also tells me that the Miami secondary may be a bit better than everyone thought.  Wait a minute….Ok I just splashed cold water on my face and took a shot.  All that fairy tale crap just went out the window and it is quite clear that the Broncos are going to roll over these guys. Give the points before it goes to 4.

Atlanta Falcons  -3  41
Oakland Raiders
My Pick:  Yes Atlanta is good this year and Justin Fargas blew his chance last week and Rub DMC STILL is not playing this week so ATL rolls.  Give the points.

Dallas Cowboys
NY Giants  -7.5  41
My Pick:  Giants=GOOD, Cowboys=NOT SO GOOD.  Give the points.

Philadelphia Eagles  -7  42.5
Seattle Seahawks
My Pick:  The only bright spot on this for Seattle is that Morris is back and getting the carries and Seneca Wallace is playing good enough for what he has to work with.  Philly is still too strong no matter how you look at it, and Westbrook is back in the mix which adds insult to injury.  Philly will roll on them, but I expect the hawks to put up a fight, in the end though it won’t be enough.  Give the points.

Sunday Night Football

New England Patriots
Indianapolis Colts  -6.5  45
My Pick:  Indy is reeling from the beatdown they took on Monday night in Tennessee.  At the beginning they were looking solid, Manning was having his way with the passing game and his most product target turned out to be his TE Dallas Clark who ended up with 2 TD’s.  The Colts run game was completely shut down and you could see the frustration on Peyton’s face as he was hurried over and over again.  The Titans got off to a slow start, but like a train picking up steam so did the Tennessee run game led by Chris Johnson and LenDale White.  Kerry Collins proved yet again that he might not win games, but he definitely doesn’t lose them either, as he committed 0 turnovers.  This week I think that the spread is way out of whack.  Are the Pats really getting that little respect?  Yes, and its because Sammy Morris is still out and they don’t have a strong playmaker on the rush that they can count on.  This puts all the pressure on Matt Cassel to make something happen in the air and thus far he has only been average at best.  So they have no run game and the pass game is shaky, while Indy’s run game is suspect, but they always have the pass option at their disposal and against the weakened Pats secondary you can bet they will be exercising that option alot.  After considering the reality of the situation you have to take Indy before it moves to -7.  At home they are too strong for New England.  Give the points.

Monday Night Football November 3rd

Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Redskins  -3  37
My Pick:  The Skins pulled it off last week, but they had me worried in the beginning as they let Detriot take an early lead.  Jason Campbell continues to execute well even when Clinton Portis gets slowed down and Santana Moss finally broke out of his slump, but it was against the shaky Lions defense so I don’t want to read into it too much.  The bottom line is that the Skin’s are no joke and they are shaping up to have a good playoff run.  The Steelers looked like they had it locked up against the Gigantes after all but shutting down the battering ram that is Brandon Jacobs, but low and behold Eli and company came back charging in the 4th quarter and a well timed saftey tied the game and then they got the go ahead touchdown.  It didn’t help that Big Ben threw 3 INT’s and the passing game never got developed.  This week Pitt has got to cutout the tunrovers and that means that the o-line has got to protect Ben, they should have an easier time against the Skin’s D-line than what they faced against the Giants, but they cannot underestimate them.  I think Portis gets shut down as did Jacobs and Campbell while good is no Eli Manning.  I will be rooting for the Skin’s, but I don’t think they cover, Pitt will bounce back this week and it looks like Willie Parker will play.  Take the points.

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