I was soo right last week and at the same time sooo wrong.  Who would have thought that Cincy would actually try to win much less cover the spread?, did anyone imagine in their wildest dreams that the Falcons would go into Green Bay and push them around?, how is it that KC who had given up only 3 passing TD’s all year would give up 2 in one game and then let the Carolina D hold them to a big doughnut 0 points?  I was right about the Skins who are proving they are the real deal and I was soooo pleased with my Miami over San Diego pick because as I have stated before, I hate everything from southern Cali.  Last week I went 4-7-2 and I have to change it up to get back to winning which is what I plan to do every week, but this week is different as I am basing my picks on a new set of variables.  I am 34-36-3 on the year, but the mediocrity is over.  Below are this weeks matchups and spreads along with my picks.  Cheers…

Teams on Bye Week: Buffalo, Tennessee, Kansas City, Pittsburgh 

Sunday October 12th

Oakland Raiders
New Orleans Saints -7.5  47
My Pick:  The Saints had a disappointing Monday night against the Viks and it was the special teams that did them in, actually it was a kicker, who only has one job, ONE!!!  Despite not being able to run much, Brees still had a good game and Oakland is terrible against the pass.  I expect it them to go to the air all day long, especially at home in the Dome.  Fargas is back for the Raiders and McFadden’s toe is still suspect, JaMarcus Russell has shown some comfort int he pocket and getting the short passes out, but if they can’t run then they are done.  The Raiders have a new coach so there will be some feelings of uneasiness on the sideline and this why the Saints roll on them, give the points.

Cincinnati Bengals
NY Jets -6  44.5
My Pick:  The Jets are coming off a bye week and Favre is coming off a 6 TD game, while the Bengals are decent against the pass, I still don’t think they have what it takes.  Their run game is more and more being based on Cedric Benson, nuff said…  The Jets are a more well rounded team and playing at home only helps.  I see no reason why Brett ol Boy doesn’t blow them out, I don’t care what Cincy did to Dallas last week as the Boys’ are just a time bomb waiting to explode anyways, and I mean that in a bad way.  Give the points!

Chicago Bears -3  44
Atlanta Falcons
My Pick:  Ok, lets say that Michael Turner comes out and rushes for 100yds against the number 4 ranked run D and Matt Ryan doesn’t throw an INT and the Falcons D manages to hold Matt Forte to under 100 yds.  Does all this equal an Atlanta W?  NO, NO and NO.  Da Bears and Kyle Orton are playing sound football, (I can’t believe I just wrote that) but its true and when the defense is sound and the QB doesn’t turn the ball over and they even get the TE involved on a regular basis, there is no reason I can think of not to take Lovie and the gang on this one, plus I just picked up Orton and Olsen on the waiver wire for my fantasy team so there is a little bias on this one, but check the stats, its the right call.  Give the points.

Detriot Lions
Minnesota Vikings -13  45.5
My Pick:  Minnesota was less than impressive on Monday night, but a W is a W and now they are facing the horrid Lion cubs who can’t seem to do anything right.  AP was limited last week, but against the Detriot D he should be looking to rebound and light up the stats and score board.  I think this spread is actually a little high considering that Detriot is a pass first team against the Viks secondary who is not really that feared.  I think Detriot loses, but they keep it close by going through the air and will cover the 13 points.  Take it now before the spread comes down.

St. Louis Rams
Washington Redskins -13.5  44
My Picks:  I am officially on the Redskins bandwagon and being a Seahawks fan you can understand why.  Portis is running the best he ever has, Campbell is now unquestioned in executing the Jim Zorn offense and the defense is stepping up and wreaking havoc on opposing offenses.  The Rams on the other hand have nothing to be excited about and could actually make a run at going winless this year.  Steven Jackson is the only talent left on the team and the Skins have shown they can stop the run.  This is going to be ugly for the Lambs and I think the Skins make sweaters out of them.  Give the points, and to quote Matthew Berry, Long Live the ZORN Supremacy!!!

Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5  36.5
My Pick:  This is either the the easiest pick of the pick or the hardest.  On one hand, Carolina is on a roll which I predicted at the beginning of the season when I drafted Jake Delhomme for my fantasy team, but the run game has stolen some points from him.  This may be a non factor as the Tampa D is a top rated run D and ther is no way that Deangelo Williams repeats that spectacular performance from last week, which could mean more passing.  On the other hand Tampa really doesn’t have much offense to speak of and Ernest Graham won’t do much against the Carolina D who shut down LJ and pretty much every other RB they have faced.  So it would seem that Carolina is the pick, but then remember that Tampa shut down the Denver high powered pass D last week and held them to 16 points.  This game has quagmire written all over it and by that I mean 13 – 17 or something along those lines.  I think Carolina is due for a loss and it could be Tampa to give it to them.  At -1.5 it seems that Tampa should be able to cover it. BTY I am not starting Delhomme this week in case you were wondering.

Miami Dolphins
Houston Texans -3  45
My Pick:  I think I may have been the only guy I know that picked Miami over San Diego last night and it was soo sweet to relish the pain that other people in the bar were going through as during pregame they sported their SD jerseys with pride and confidense.  LOL…Sometimes its the little things like that that make it all worth it.  This week Houston is looking to get whipped yet again(man, when are those guys going to put something together???) Ronnie Brown is just too much for them, not sure what else to say, the Fins defense is playing too tough for Steve Slaton to steal easy touch downs, and with Sagebrush Rosenfels at the Q, you can bet on at least 2 turnovers from him, plus I want to know how you blow a 17 point lead in the 4th quarter?  I mean c’mon!!!  There is a reason that more and more Dallas jerseys are being sold in Houston these days.  Take Miami and the points.

Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts -4  39
My Pick:  Indy has been struggling alot this year and while they haven’t been losing alot, but they are not meeting anyones expectations and seem prime for a loss.  This week the Ravens could provide just that behind the legs of breakout RB Le’Ron McClaine who has been tearing up opposing run D’s.  Indy gave up alot to Steve Slaton last week if they haven’t figured it out then between the Ravens defense and the run game splitting carries between McClaine and McGahee they are going to have a long day in Indy.  Even Joe Flacco could match Rosenfels performance of last week against a weak Indy secondary.  After all this jock riding I have to take the Ravens plus the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver Broncos  -3.5 48.5
My Pick:  The Jags got stunned last week against Pitt and Denver was shown a little humility even though they won.  The bright side is that MJD and Taylor are both back and Denver can’t stop the run, which takes alot of pressure off of Gerrard.  The good thing for Denver is that the defensive front 4 for the Jags can’t put any pressure on anyone so Cutler should have a field day.  This is looking more and more like a Denver win at home in the thin air, but be weary of that half point hook, if you can get -3 take it otherwise consider buying that half point and take Denver.

Green Bay Packers
Seattle Seahawks -2  47
My Pick:  I’m not sure what Seattle’s plan is.  Hasselbeck’s age is starting to show, his only solid WR is like 38, and the O line doesn’t want to play anymore.  The defense is getting eaten up on the ground and there is just no fire in Seattle right now.  This pains me as I am a life long Seahawks fan through thick and thin, but at the moment there is nothing to get excited about.  Green Bay is not doing much better.  The run game is non existent and the fact that the defense is not getting dominiating is concerning to me.  Rodgers is healthy, but that doesn’t matter because even at less than 100% he threw for over 300 yds and 3 TD’s.  Can Seattle really afford to lose this game?  No, but no team can really afford to lose any game so that is a rhetorical question at best.  I have to go against my boys this week, I just don’t think they have enough to get it done, even being at home.  Take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -4  42
San Francisco 49′ers
My Pick:  Westbrook is out!  The 9er’s almost beat the Pats last week, but the inevitable pissing down the leg that took place canceled that dream.  I think San Fran is starting to get a rythem together and it will only take 1 big win to get them rolling at full speed.  The Eagles could be the team to give them that win, with the loss of Westbrook and the slowing overall of the offense, Philly needs to be weary of the 49er’s defense or face back to back losses.  Gore had been…OK, O’sullivan has been better than expected and Bruce is always reliable.  I am going to shock everyone and take the 49er’s to win straight up.  Take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -5  50
Arizona Cardinals
My Picks:  The Cards are looking good after the whipping they put on Buffalo, however that was expected by me and many others.  But the fact that Kurt Warner at his age is still the number 1 QB in the league at this point is something that no one expected.  And who is this Tim Hightower with dreads and all, stealing all the TD’s from po old Edge.  The defense is looking tough as well except for the few long bombs they let slip by every once in a while, they cannot let that happen against TO and the gang.  The boys’ are facing yet another distraction, but this time it comes in the form of Pacman Jones, it doesn’t seem like anything big, but the point is that there always seems to be something unrelated to football that is being talked about in Dallas more than the players performance on the field.  Here’s the deal, as stated before I believe that Dallas is ticking time bomb waiting to go off and I mean that in a bad way, they will blow it very soon and I think it starts in AZ, the Cards will no doubt be underestimated and their passing game is too good for the Dallas secondary.  AZ wins straight up.  Take the points.

Sunday Night Football

New England Patriots
San Diego Chargers -6  44.5
My Pick:  The Chargers were literally shocked last week in Miami and they just got outplayed and out classed.  LT is getting more and more useless and Phillip Rivers needs to learn to keep his cool.  New England almost dropped one to San Fran and in fact I was counting on it, but in the end Kevin Faulk saved the day for them and got them the W.  Now that the Pats have made the transition to a run team first and the Chargers are obviously looking to let it fly in the air you have to think that the Chargers in a good position at home to get it done and while the Charger D has gotten it together after the loss of Merriman I think they are looking really good.  The Pats D is lacking in the secondary and they are old nonetheless so they may be playing from behind which is bad news and lots of pressure on Matt Cassell.  I think we see big plays from the San Diego WR’s and high scores.  In the end I think that NE won’t have enough to keep up with the run game and Cassell is posed to throw at least 2 INT’s.  With the spread under 7 I like the Chargers, give the points. 

Monday Night Football October 13th

NY Giants -8  42.5
Cleveland Browns
My Pick:  Los Gigantes are on fire and no longer are they the fluke that everyone thought they were last year, now they demand respect whereever they play.  Nothing changes when they go to Cleveland, who has been having all sorts of problems this year, to the point that they may consider playing Brady Quinn just for a change in hate mail the front office receives.  To be fair, the Giants defense wasn’t really tested against the beat up Seahawks last week and the Browns are healthy and have a more stable group of playmakers.  Jamal Lewis will be looking to match Brandon Jacobs rush for rush and hes big enough to do it.  The Browns receivers are big enough to give Sam Madison a run for his money and if the Browns offensive line can put together any kind of blocking scheme then the recievers will get open.  There are all sorts of variables to this game, but when it comes down to it the phrase you keep hearing is, “Trust in Eli” and for good reason.  The Browns will play their hearts out as if their jobs depend on it and it very well might and I do think the Giants will win, they are due for a slowdown of sorts, call it a 5-0 hang over if you will and I think the Browns surprise people this week.  They may not win, but I think they cover.  Take the points.  Breaking NEWS!!!  Kellen Winslow has been hospitalized with an undisclosed illness, change of pick, take the Gigantes GIVE THE POINTS!!!

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