I went 7-6 last week on my picks which brings my year long total to 30-29-1, and I am not bragging about it at all!  This is the worst I have ever picked before which means you should probably be taking my reverse picks instead.  Regardless below are this weeks spreads and a short pick from me, take it or leave it.

Teams on Bye Week: Cleveland, Oakland, St. Louis, NY Jets

Sunday, October 5th

Kansas City Chiefs
Carolina Panthers -9.5  38.5
My Pick:  Larry Johnson has finally decided that he wants to play football again.  The Panthers D is actually pretty good this year so I expect LJ to be limited.  Delhomme may find trouble against the Chiefs secondary so Jonathan Stewart will be getting alot of work.  9.5 seems pretty high on against the Chiefs who just came off an upset of Denver so unless the line moves down to 9 I think the half point hook forces me to take the Chiefs.  The Panthers are not finishing games like I would like. Take the points.

Tennessee Titans -3  33
Baltimore Ravens
My Pick:  Tennessee is on a rampage right now and Kerry Collins is getting the job done.  Better keep Vince Young on suicide watch for another couple weeks.  Le’Ron McClaine has been the feel good story of the year in Baltimore, but don’t expect any miracles against the Titans run D, they are actually ranked #1 this week according tot he guru’s at ESPN.  The Titans are looking solid and I have to stick with them this week.  Give the points.

San Diego Chargers -6.5  44.5
Miami Dolphins
My Pick:  This is very strange, or maybe its just Ronnie Brown that has pushed the line down to under double digits.  I actually don’t beleive in San Diego at the moment and i have never liked them anyways which makes this a little bias, but I have to take the Dolphins this week plus the points, but wait until Sunday morning when the line will be at 7, those dilusional fans from southern Cali will surely sway the line in your favor.

Seattle Seahawks
NY Giants -7  43.5
My Pick:  Its going to be a long day for my boys from Sea-Town.  The Giants D has been eating up oppossing QB’s all year long and the Seahawks front line has been weakening and it no longer giving Hasselsack the time he is used to.  Couple that with a bunch of rookie WR’s, an aging Bobby Engram and not much of a run game and you can see why the Giants are a steal at -7 and reluctantly I have to take the Gigantes and give the points.

Washington Redskins
Philadelphia Eagles -6  42
My Pick:  I absolutely love Washington right now, Campbell is developing into the QB needed to execute Jim Zorn’s offense and his supporting cast led by Santana Moss is not letting him down.  The Eagles are playing great as well, but with the questions surrounding Brian Westbrook it could make them one dimensional, sure Correll Buckhalter will get the goal line carries, but its going to be all McNabb to get them to the redzone and the Skins are missing some DB’s so its going to be a little hairy until the backups are settled.  I think this one stays close and the Skins are pumped about the Dallas debacle so I have to take the points in this one.  Go Skins…

Indianapolis Colts -3  47
Houston Texans
My Pick:  For the past couple years the Texans have been the achillies heel of Indy, constantly pushing them to brink and winning a couple games in the process.  If the Texans want to get a win this week then Matt Schuab needs to have a come to jesus meeting with his WR’s and they have to play cohesive and communicate better.  There is no reason why Houston can’t be a threat in that division, they just need to get their act together.  The spread being so low shows the distrust the pubic has for Indy at the moment and Houston can use that momentum to pull out the W.  I like Houston to win straight up.  Take the points.

Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers -4  41
My Pick:  The line is finally out!  This is a lot lower than anyone thought, but now it is pretty much a sure thing that Matt Flynn is starting you have to respect the Falcons run game carried by Michael Turner.  Look, there are a lot of variables that figure into this game, but the fact is that they are playing in Green Bay and the Packers D is good enough to win this without their offense.  Don’t let the injuries fool you.  Green Bay will win and they will cover by a touchdown, because this is the week that Ryan Grant is 100% healthy and they have no choice but to run the ball against the Falcons D which is not that good.  Take the Pack, give the points. 

Chicago Bears -3.5  44.5
Detriot Lions
My Pick:  The Lion Cubs are an enigma, how can a team with so much talent be soooo bad?  Lack of fundamentals (i.e. catching the ball that hits your hands), bad coaching, horrible team president (yes, thats you Millen) and basically a stigma that has been plaguing your team since I started watching football and that was a long time ago.  These guys need to figure it out real quick, fast and in a hurry.  Da Bears on the other hand are loving life right now, Orton doesn’t turn it over, the rookie Forte is carrying the entire team and the defense is on hit.  While I really want the Lions to turn it around I don’t think they win again this week, but the half point hook is enough for me to take the Lions this week and cover by the half.  Take the points.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Denver Broncos -3  48
My Pick:  The Bucs are looking good with Griese behind the center and they seem to be playing a nice spread out offense and mix it up.  The defense is undoubtly the key to their success and while they gave Rodgers alot of trouble last week, they better be prepared for the Broncos passing attack, its very odd that they are now known for their passing game instead of the ground attack, but times change and they are changing with them.  I really like the Bucs and am happy to see them successful, but I have to cite the Denver home advantage of the high altitude and thin air they are used to.  I think that Denver bounces back after that embarassment they suffered against the Chiefs last week and they will win and no doubt cover.  Give the points.

Cincinnati Bengals
Dallas Cowboys -17  44
My Pick:  Chad Johnson says, “I’m gonna score and I’m gonna kiss the star”.  This only strengthens the Dallas secondary’s resolve to shut him down.  I remember what happened to TO when he spun the ball on the star, so Ocho Cinco better watch his back.  Ocho Cinco isn’t the only WR running his mouth in this matchup.  TO big surprise is complaining yet again about getting the ball, this guy just doesn’t know how to shut his trap and play ball.  The Cowboys will no doubt be on a rampage after their loss to the Skins last week and Marion the Barbarian will be a human bull dozer and Romo will be Romo, but should we really disrespect the Bengals that much with that high of a line?  Honestly…yes, the Bengals are all kinds of no good right now and Chris Henry is hurt and Palmer is iffy at best.  Take the Boys, give the points. 

Buffalo Bills
Arizona Cardinals PK  44.5
My Pick:  The Cards are now looking like they could be the team that wins the NFC West this year and last weeks sputter was against the almight Brett Faaaaverre’ so don’t read into it too much. Holdin Boldin is out, but they have enough weapons to fill the void.  This week Trent Edwards will not be a star and Marshawn Lynch will meet some resistence against the AZ defense so the PK spread is sweet for the home team, you have to take the home team when its a PK.  So since AZ is at home, you get the picture. 

New England Patriots -3  41
San Francisco 49′ers
My Pick:  This is what it has come to…The Pats are only favored by a lousy 3 points against the 9er’s.  Are the 49′ers that good?  No they are not.  The Patriots have clearly shown that without Brady they have to change the entire game plan.  What happened to Wes Welker and the deep pass to Moss?  Its all run game now and Frank Gore is better than which ever of the 3 backs that the Pats use plus the defense is old and depleted.  I will probably regret this, but I actually think that San Fran wins this game.  Save your boo’s and trash talk for the game, but don’t be surprised by the upset, because you heard it hear first.

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars -4  36
My Pick:  The Jags finally broke out of their self pity and despite losing their ground attack, David Gerrard is the man in Jacksonville.  Both teams have lost their starters at RB and both will be looking to pass first.  Big Ben will be fine, don’t listen to the reports, he will be playing and both teams will rely on their defenses to win the game.  I think this is the week that the Jags really stick it to another team and run up the score and unfortunately Pittsburgh will be their whipping boy.  Do yourself a favor and jump on the Jags before the line moves up. Give the points.

Monday Night Football October 6th

Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints -3  46.5
My Pick:  Ah this game is going to be great!  The Saints will throw the long bomb and the Viks will let AP aka Purple Jesus run all day long.  Minny D is known for their run D, but their secondary is questionable and against Drew Brees that is going to be a problem for them.  It will be a high scoring game but the only problem is that you score TD’s faster in the air and therefore the Saints will cover and win no problemo.  Give the points.

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