Last week was rough on me both financially and mentally.  I went 7-7-1 which brings my total record for the year to 17-13-1, still over 50% so its not that bad.  What really hurt was the whoppin my fantasy team took, I almost called Vince Young to meet me on the roof.  Below are this weeks spreads and totals for Week 3 with my picks.

Sunday September 21st

Kansas City Chiefs
Atlanta Falcons -5  36.5
My Pick:  Neither of these teams will do much this year and the only reason the spread is this high is because the Chiefs let a less than 100% Darren McFadden run all over them, imagine what Michael Turner is going to do to them on his home field.  Matt Ryan still has alot of work to do to make his team believe, but he is coming around and I think he has an average performance this week.  The Chiefs have nothing except Dwayne Bowe with no one to throw to him and a piss poor weekly effort form Larry ”moneybags” Johnson.  This week they will test out rookie RB Pierre.  The Falcons look like they could come together and get the job done while Kansas City gives me nothing good to say, the play is Atlanta -5 points. 

Oakland Raiders
Buffalo Bills  -9.5  36.5
My Pick:  Buffalo looks like a new team this year and they seem to be clicking on all cyclinders.  Edwards and Evans is a great hook up and Lynch is getting it done on the ground all the while the O line seems to be born again.  This all spells trouble for the porous Oakland defense and they will have to rely on an explosive ground attack to balance it out since they have no passing game.  Enter, Run DMN (Darren McFadden for those of you out of the know), DMC is not completely healthy and his turf toe could limit him this week unless the Raiders are exageratting the seriousness of it, which is what I’m counting on because I basically have to start him this week since I dropped the ball on taking advantage of the waiver wire.  Basically, I NEED DMC to have a huge game and I think the Buffalo D is overrated, but wait a couple days and watch the line go to -10 then jump on the Raiders, Lan Kiffin’s job depends on it….Plus when was the last time that Buffalo started 3-0? yeah I couldn’t tell you either.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chicago Bears  -3  35.5
My Pick:  Chicago just barely got edged out in Carolina last week and thats because they have to depend on the run ability of rookie Matt Forte, which the Bucs just happen to be great at defending.  Brian Griese will be getting the start again, but you have to wonder about the receiving situation in Tampa as the aging Joey Galloway is still their number 1 target and many think he has lost a step or 2 or 3…Orton has proven that he doesn’t turn the ball over which was the main reason he got the start, but I don’t much else good to say about him.  Its going to be a defensive game regardless of what happens and playing at Soilder Field is never fun, if Deven Hester is healthy then I like the Da Bears to cover the 3 points.

Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans -5  39
My Pick:  Even with all the attention around Vince Young and his appearant self doubts and injury, Kerry Collins is a seasoned vet that knows how to win in this league and is a better pocket passer anyways and with the rookie Chris Johnson running very well in his debut season this all spells trouble for the Houston defense.  Matt Shaub just hasn’t been able to get in the groove yet this season and they have no stand out play maker.  This all leads to a Titans win and they will cover by at least a touchdown.  Tennessee give the points.

Cincinnati Bengals
NY Giants  -13  42
My Pick:  Eli is looking good and just when you thought is was going to be the Plaxico Burress show all season he throws a curve and lights up Amani Toomer.  Jacobs is running reasonably well and Bradshaw is always dependable to spell him.  The Giants at home look tough, even their depleted defense is turning heads.  The Bengals are no kinds of good right now and the O-line is the main reason, Palmer can’t connect with either of his WR studs because he has no time to throw and the defense is appallingly bad.  Marvin Lewis has got to be scratching his head wondering where he went wrong.  If the Bengals want to salvage anything from this season it needs to happen now!  Unfortunately, it won’t happen against the defending champs and this is going to be a blood bath.  Giants all the way -13.

Carolina Panthers
Minnesota Vikings -3.5  37
My Pick:  Adrian Peterson did not participate in practice on Thursday due to a hamstring injury, but at the moment his intention is to play.  Gus Ferrotte (yes you read that right) is getting the start in place of Tavaris Jackson who the coaching staff feels is not developing to their liking.  This means that Bernard Berrian will finally get some action from a true pocket passer.  Carolina is still being underestimated and with the return of Steve Smith the Vikings secondary is going to be tested to their limits.  I think that half point hook is what sells the Panthers for me and while I think they can win straight up I will take the points before it drops down to 3. 

Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots -12.5  34.5
My Pick:  Who is Joey Porter kidding???  The Fins have no chance in Foxboro, the Pats have proven they don’t have to depend on Matt Cassel to make the big plays.  I don’t even need to write anymore you get the picture. Pats minus the points. 

Arizona Cardinals
Washington Redskins -3  42
My Pick:  I really want to see Jason Campbell become the pocket passer he could be under Coach Jim Zorn.  I think that Santana Moss is ready to come back and play consistent this year, so if Campbell steps up they can execute the Zorn game plan and there is always Clinton Portis that opposing defenses have to respect so it keep them guessing.  The defense is even steppong up so if the Skins secondary can at least slow down Boldin and Fitzgerald it should give Jason Taylor enough time to put some pressure on Kurt Warner.  The Cards have been looking good this season, but and thats a big BUT!!! they have only played San Fran and Miami so they still need to be tested this year.  I think the Redskins test their limits and pull this one off, I’m looking for Moss to have a huge game. Redskins -3.

St. Louis Rams
Seattle Seahawks -9.5  43.5
My Pick:  While I am a Seahawks fan through the good and the bad and there is alot of bad going on right now…I am still a realist.  The Hawks have resorted to picking up players off the bread lines at local mens shelters.  Just this week they signed washout Koren Robinson to a one year deal and while he does know the system, how can you expect him to be in playing form?  The St. Louis Lambs are in no better shape expect that they actually have starters playing which should throw up big red flags because thats how bad they are.  You would think they were starting a bunch of rookies, but no thats not the case, they just are not playing any kind of good football right now which is why the spread is so big.  The Hawks lost on a -7.5 spread last week to the lowly 49′ers and the situation is so bad that you can’t give that many points.  I do think Seattle will win just as to not lose face in the NFC West, but I do not think they will cover.  Take the Lambs plus the points.

Detriot Lions
San Francisco 49′ers -4  46.5
My Pick:  For some reason everyone thinks the 49′ers are gonna break out just because they won in Seattle last week in overtime.  I am not one of those people.  The Seahawks all playing with a bunch of rookies and they just got outplayed, but not because the 9er’s are good.  Detroit actually has some studs on it and Calvin Johnson is looking like a stud and he owes it to Jon Kitna.  Niether of these teams are very good, but when you compare talent then Detroit is the play.  Take the points.

New Orleans Saints
Denver Broncos  -5.5  51
My Pick:  The Broncos are stacked right now, they are just executing and its the air attack that has everyone talking instead of the traditional run game that Denver is famous for.  The Saints lost last in the 4th quarter last week on a blown coverage so they have to be a little concerned, plus I haven’t seen any Reggie Bush highlights lately on ESPN so that means that hes not producing like they need him to.  I like the Broncos just because they are looking confident and they always have an advantage at home in the thinner air.  Take the Broncos before it moves up to 6, but even at 6 its still money.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis Colts -5.5  41.5
My Pick:  This game has been hyped up big because of last season, but everyone doesn’t realize is that last year was last year and both of these teams are different this year.  The Jags celebrated O-line has bee crippled by injuries and it shows in the overall production of the offense.  The Colts suffer the same handicapp at the moment so this needs to be a defensive game.  Both teams have decent pass rushers and linebacking corp, sure Bob Sanders is hurt, but they can fill the void.  I think that the Colts at home have a slight advantage and as long as the line stays below 6 I like Indy, but anything above 6 take the Jags.  I will grade this pick by the closing line on Sunday so don’t worry I’m not cheating on my year long picks tally.

Cleveland Browns
Baltimore Ravens -2  38.5
My Pick:  Joe Flacco is all the rage right now and for good reason, they haven’t had a steady QB situation that didn’t make you blush everytime they announced the starter in 3 years.  While they still have a ways to go under new the head coach they are playing like a team that wants to win and sometimes thats all you need.  The Brownies on the other hadn are in a must win situation, what with coming into the season with such high hope only to be 0-2 at the moment.  I think that Jamal Lewis will put up some numbers and even with the absense of Braylon Edwards that the Browns can still make a difference in the air.  I think that ol’ Romeo pulls this one off and the Browns finally get a win.  Take the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Philadelphia Eagles -3  45
My Pick:  Ah the showdown in Pennsylvania, always a highlight in the regular season and this game promises to be nothing short of a grudge match.  Pitt is playing tough and all that hub bub about Big Ben’s seperated shoulder turned out to be nothing at all, which means the Eagles D has got to learn from their mistakes against Romo and apply the pressure to Ben.  They also have to contain Parker who seems to be on top of his game at the moment.  Philly needs to to just keep doing what their doing and let McNabb do his thing.  The O-line has been great and the threat of Brian Westbrook keeps opposing defenses a little skitish.  This is going to be a tight game where the obvious playmakers willshine so it will all come down to defense and while I do fell that the Pittsburgh D is playing better defense I gotta go with the home team at minus 3, worst case scenario I push on the spread.

Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys -3  51
Green Bay Packers
My Pick:  The Cowboys narrowly escaped a home field loss in a Monday night game that was full of BIG plays, BIG bone head moves and BIG scores.  First Romo fumbled to himself in the endzone giving the Eagles a free TD, then Desean Jackson spiked the football on the half yard line instead of waitng just 1 second longer.  Felix Jones ran back a kickoff for a TD and TO had a sweet 76 yard TD.  The Pack enjoyed a nice warm up game last week against the Lions and Aaron Rodgers seems to be everything they thought he would be which should silence the critics somewhat as he threw 3 TD’s and over 300 yards, but that was against the Lions.  Anyways, the Packers are looking solid in the air and should do fine against a Cowboys D that allowed 9 different Philly WR’s to get touches and yards, but the real damage was done on the ground against their run D.  This concerns me because Ryan Grant is proving to be somewhat of a bust and although he has not been 100%, if he couldn’t get it done against the Lions D then there is no way that he gets his yards against the Cowboys.  Jennings and Driver are money in this game and playing in Green Bay only adds to the flavor, plus thats all they have to work with as Grant is hurt and Brandon Jackson is good for distracting the linebackers.  Dallas is looking tough, but I doubt we see another fireworks filled game on Sunday night, it will be a more slow and controlled rythem this week and Marion Barber will get held down by the Green Bay defensive line, which means its an air game this week which is the reason for the high total of 51.  If the Green Bay secondary can keep TO contained and the front d line keep the pressure on Romo then I like the Packers at home plus the 3 points.

Monday Night Football September 22nd

NY Jets
San Diego Chargers -9  44
My Pick:  The Chargers just can’t seem to finish a game. Twice now in 2 weeks they got beat in the closing minutes of a game where they held the lead, kudos to Mike Shanahan for going for 2 points.  This will most likely be the week where they start winning again against a Jets team that just can’t get into a solid rythem on offense nor defense.  The Jets had a good start in week 1, but after losing to the Pats at home in a game where there was no communication and the Brett Favre magic just wasn’t clicking it now may be the reality that the Jets will sell tickets because of Favre, not because they are winning.  If Favre and co. couldn’t get anything going against a questionable Pats secondary what is their answer for the Chargers D?  If Brett can’t find a way to make the gun slinging translate into TD’s then whats the point.  Also Thomas Jones needs to grow a pair, this was the year he was going to finally start performing like everyone expected when he was drafted, but as of yet has not made a believer out of anyone, plus Farve needs someone to draw the attention off him so that he can actually make good throws without scrambling.  The Jets D has got to step up big and shut down the Chargers run game as LT looks to be hurt still and that means that midget Darren Sproles will be bobing and weaving under the legs of linemen.  He is like a mouse and if they don’t silence him right off the bat then it will be a long day for the Jets D.  Phillip Rivers is looking good and his receivers Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers are playing solid and not making dumb mistakes, the defense looks good and most importantly they have to win this week and the way the Jets played last week I am not impressed and I have to take the Chargers -9 as much as it kills me to do so since I have a deep hatered of all teams from southern California. 

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