Heres a run down of the teams and what we can expect from them this season as well as their current listed Odds to Win Superbowl XLII:
*(all odds are + money and payouts are based on $100 bets, ex +1700 risk $100 to win $1700, or risk $50 to win $850, ect. ect.)
AFC
Baltimore: +1700, The reigning AFC North champions are coming off of a 13-3 regular season, but they still ended the ’06-’07 campaign with a sour taste in their mouths. That’s because they lost in the divisional playoffs to the Super Bowl winning Indianapolis Colts in a game that they were supposed to win! A 15-6 defensive struggle was exactly what the Ravens wanted, but Ray Lewis and company were the ones that ended up on the wrong side of that score line. After a solid off season, Baltimore looks to defend its divisional title with the goal of returning to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2001. They’ve reshaped their backfield, but on the whole this team figures to be very similar to last year’s squad, which features a juggernaut defense and a ball-control offense with just enough firepower to win ball games.
Buffalo: +9000, Despite playing the NFL’s toughest schedule last season, the young Bills were competitive – they lost five games by three points or fewer. A strong finish and a 7-9 record raised hope that better days were ahead. But we have seen this movie before. The Bills have lived a roller-coaster existence since 2002, with one season of promise followed by one of disappointment and despair. There is as much uncertainty about 2007 as there was heading into 2006. There is young talent on the roster. Wide receiver Lee Evans is coming off a breakout season, quarterback J.P. Losman has made strides and strong safety Donte Whitner headed last season’s strong rookie class. But the Bills lost a huge part of their veteran core in the offseason. Cornerback Nate Clements and middle linebacker London Fletcher-Baker left as free agents, and the club traded running back Willis McGahee and strong-side linebacker Takeo Spikes.
Cincinnati: +1800, The jailbird Bengals try to straighten their image this year and improve on an 8-8 season. They’ve added LB Ed Hartwell and re-signed last year’s sack leader Robert Geathers. CB Tory James, S Kevin Kaesviharn, and WR Kelley Washington all signed on elsewhere. WR Chris Henry will miss the first 8 games of the season due to his league-imposed suspension. Carson Palmer made an impressive comeback last season from what looked like a devastating knee injury suffered in the playoffs of 2005-2006. He threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 TDs. If he can stay healthy this year I think he’s capable of even more production. Rudi Johnson was one of the most consistent backs in the AFC last year rushing for 1369 yards on 341 carries. His 3.8 ypc average is not impressive, but he was 3rd in the NFL in carries and seventh in yards. Johnson is a bruising back and I look for him to improve last year’s numbers as well.
Cleveland: +7000, Cleveland added to their offensive line this off-season drafting Joe Thomas from Wisconsin with the third pick and signing former Bengal Eric Steinbach to a seven year deal in free agency. The Browns are also gambling that RB Jamal Lewis can return to form after a sub-par season a year ago in Baltimore. The Browns also drafted Heisman contender Brady Quinn to compete for the team’s biggest question area, quarterback. The Browns didn’t really lose any big names in the off-season. Dennis Northcutt is gone and some fans are cheering for that. If Quinn can step up right away and prove he’s the man in Cleveland everything may eventually work itself out. It’s not good to have your biggest hole at the position that handles the ball on every offensive snap. Charlie Frye showed a few flashes last year, but was inconsistent and then injured. Derek Anderson came in a did a nice job for a week or two and then looked like a third-string clipboard holder the rest of the time. If Quinn doesn’t impress, then they will be in for another long season in Cleveland.
Houston: +10000, It was a bit of a surprise that the Texans took a defensive lineman first for a third consecutive year, but it’s difficult to argue with the Okoye pick given Houston’s annual problems at stopping the run. What Gary Kubiak’s team missed out on was a potential starter in the secondary, with Barnett and Harrison both projecting as backups at best. And Jones, the team’s only first- day pick other than Okoye, will have a steep learning curve in his transition from the Division II ranks. Elsewhere, Matt Schaub had to be wincing when he saw that his new team failed to take an offensive lineman until the fifth round. To Houston’s credit, it did take a couple of players in Frye and Studdard that have played against their share of top-notch defensive lines. Diles, who few services rated as a draft-worthy player, had to be shocked to hear his name called. Despite all of this I would still look for Houston to break a few hearts this season and make the moneyline on them look great.
Indianapolis: +700, The defending champs didn’t make many major changes during the offseason, so it will be business as usual for one of the league’s most powerful offenses. Continuity is again a key for success, as Manning continues to work under highly successful offensive coordinator Tom Moore, a staple during the quarterback’s career. The offensive line remains stable and familiar targets are back in the passing game. The Colts will again be one of the elite teams in the NFL and their best offensive players will be among the top players at their respective positions.
Jacksonville: +2400, Leftwich is in a contract year which should mean a big year if he wants big money. Jack Del Rio doesn’t have a great relationship with Leftwich after benching him last season and then wanting Brady Quinn in the draft, but Leftwich will want to prove himself and Del Rio wants to keep his job, so expect a professional relationship. At running back Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew provided a great 1-2 punch for the team. Taylor might not be the primary back this year as he’s getting older and Jones-Drew is the next in line. Receiver is a big question mark since Reggie Williams and Matt Jones have been disappointments. The team needs a speed threat and Dennis Northcutt was signed in order to provide a deep threat. If Leftwich is as good as we think he’ll be, these three guys will have solid numbers.
Kansas City: +5700, A Larry Johnson holdout would be disastrous for the Chiefs. If indeed Brodie Croyle is going to be the starter, he’ll need all the RB help he can get. Losing a workhorse back because of contract disputes could kill their season. S Sammy Knight, T Kyle Turley, and DE Eric Hicks were cut and pro bowl lineman Will Shields decided to hang it up. First round pick D’Wayne Bowe adds to a very weak receiving corps. The Chiefs re-signed Damon Huard, but are leaning toward starting second year man Brodie Croyle. Huard was nothing but productive last season filling in for Trent Green, but Green came back to lose the playoff game and was promptly shipped out of town. Croyle lacks experience, but at least they have Huard to go to if he falters. Larry Johnson is the running game in KC. He had more carries than anyone else in the league last year and the Chiefs need to do everything they can to get him on the field. With almost 1800 yards and 17 rushing TDs Johnson was arguably the second best back in the league last year. His line will be different and with an inexperienced QB expect defenses to key on Johnson even more than they normally would. I see a decrease in numbers from a year ago. Bottom line it will be a long season for the Chiefs.
Miami: +2900, New head man Cam Cameron takes over a team making big changes. The Daunte Culpepper experiment failed badly and Trent Green was brought in to stabilize the QB position. Reports are that Ronnie Brown is overweight coming in to camp and Chris Chambers just got arrested for DUI. Joey Porter comes to Miami to bring another presence to this defense and Az Hakim has been added to give Chambers some help at WR. Oft injured franchise savior Trent Green will be the starter unless he goes down in pre-season. If he does look for Cleo Lemon to run the show this year. John Beck was drafted as a long term solution, but he will simply hold a clipboard and learn this year. Ricky Williams will not be re-instated this season after failing yet another drug test. Ronnie Brown will get himself in to shape (he’ll have to) and with former Tomlinson coach Cam Cameron could have his best season. All this said I see yet another trying season for Miami as they struggle to find a winning combination.
New England: +325, Brady is as good as it gets at the quarterback position and it could be scary what kind of season he has with a few weapons at his disposal. Laurence Maroney will have a chance to shine now that Corey Dillon is gone, but he has never been a featured back. He only had 175 carries last year but racked up 745 yards on the ground. Kevin Faulk is an excellent 3rd down back who caught 43 passes a year ago. Two excellent receivers were added in the off-season to stretch the field. The team is hoping Randy Moss can return to his Minnesota form and Dante Stallworth is speedy and coming off a decent year in Philadelphia. Wes Welker was brought in as a possession receiver, and Ben Watson is a decent enough tight end who will benefit from the additions. The front of the New England defense is very talented with Richard Seymour commanding double teams on every down and Ty Warren learning by his example. Vince Wilfork is one of the best nose tackles in the game. Adalius Thomas was the big name acquisition on the defense and he can play almost anywhere. Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, and Rosevelt Colvin are three solid, intelligent linebackers who know how to make plays. This is a tough group for the opposition. Asanta Samuel’s holdout hurts the Patriots because they aren’t real deep at corner. The safeties will have to battle age and coming off of injures. This team’s weakness is in the secondary, despite all this the Pats are still favored to win the whole damn thing this year!!!
New York Jets: +4400, The Jets have recently activated Curtis Martin from the PUP list, but the big move of the off-season was of course the signing of Thomas Jones. Kevin Barlow is gone, Derrick Blaylock is gone and finally the Jets have a legit runner to replace the currently activated but likely to be shut down soon Curtis Martin. Chad Pennington stayed healthy last year coming off shoulder surgery. Pennington is not spectacular, but he’s adequate and capable of getting the job done. Thomas Jones should take some pressure off the passing game. With the same WRs back, expect Pennington to be more productive than last season if he can stay healthy. I’ve been talking a lot about Thomas Jones and the effect his signing will have on this offense. He’s not a spectacular back, but he is a very solid runner with a few good years left. He will score you 7 or 8 TDs and run for over 1000 yards. The Jets improved at RB and didn’t lose much from a pretty solid team of a year ago. I expect them to improve, but since they have a tough start.
Oakland: +15000, Andrew Walter and Josh McCown will have the first shot at starting under center, and neither should have trouble improving an offense that scored only 12 touchdowns and allowed 72 sacks. This is the biggest question mark on the team, and the Raiders are just hoping that one of these two can play well enough and get a few wins so they can hold off and let JaMarcus Russell learn before being thrown into the fire. LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas were inconsistent last year, so Oakland brough in Dominic Rhodes from Indianapolis. The problem is that Rhodes is suspended for the first four games so it will be more of the same to start the year. Hopefully Michael Bush can recover from the leg injury he suffered last year at Louisville. Jerry Porter was non-existent last year, and Mike Williams has been a major disappointment. Ronald Curry put up decent numbers last year, but has been injury prone. If these three can play to their ability, the pass catchers could be an offensive strength. It’s hard to believe that Oakland had the third best defense a year ago and was the top team against the pass. The good news is that almost everyone is back. Warren Sapp came back strong a year ago and is still an excellent tackle while Derrick Burgess causes problems for the opposition at the end spot. Kirk Morrison is one of the best middle linebackers you may not have heard of, and Thomas Howard and Sam Williams can hold their own at the end spots. I wouldn’t get my hopes up with the Raiders, JaMarcus Russell has alot to learn before you can expect Oakland to start winning any games.
Pittsburgh: +2800, The first task for Tomlin is to get Ben Roethlisberger back to his previous form. He had an NFL-leading 23 interceptions a year ago compared to just 18 TDs after going 27-4 in his first two years under center. He is getting more of the responsibility this year as the team thinks he can handle the load. Charlie Batch provides a capable backup. Willie Parker continues to prove he has the talent to carry the load and racked up 1,494 yards last season. Pittsburgh added depth to the backfield with Kevan Barlow in order to give more of a 1-2 punch. The Steelers have a decent set of receivers with Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Cedrick Wilson, and Nate Washington. Expect to see more of four wideout sets this season. As long as the front can stay healthy this defense will be pretty formidable. Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel are solid 3-4 ends and nose tackle Casey Hampton just eats up everything that goes through the middle. The Steelers are dealing with one of the weakest linebacking groups they have had in recent years with the departure of Joey Porter. They will need to come together as a team real quick if they want a shot at the playoffs.
San Diego: +500, Philip Rivers came in and turned some heads last season when he earned Pro Bowl honors. He wasn’t asked to do a whole lot, but it’s hard to ignore 22 touchdowns to only 9 interceptions. Bringing Norv Turner on board should help get him to the top of his upside even quicker so expect a good year out of Rivers in 2007. Tomlinson was an absolute beast a year ago with 1,815 yards and 28 TDs on the ground to go with 3 TDs, 56 catches, and 508 yards through the air. Michael Turner spelled him nicely with 80 carries for 502 yards, that’s a 6.3 ypc average. Antonio Gates was a beast at tight end in amassing 924 yards and 9 TDs on 71 catches. Craig Davis was drafted out of LSU to provide a deep threat, which is what San Diego hasn’t had in recent years. As scary as it sounds, if he develops this offense could open up Gates and Tomlinson even more. Vincent Jackson and Eric Parker will be the other wideouts used. The team’s front three is led by Jamal Williams, who went to his second straight Pro Bowl a year ago. He also has Igor Olshansky at one end to help clog opposing runners and Luis Castillo, who can get to the passer. at linebacker there is Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips who are game-changing forces. Merriman would have been defensive player of the year if he didn’t sit four games with a steroids violation, he had 17 sacks in 12 games. The inside is the question mark with Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey both gone and former backups trying to fill that void. Regardless of the questions they have to answer on defense, the Chargers will be looking to avenge an early exit last year in the playoffs and they definantly have the teram to do it.
Tennessee: +5800, Vince Young won plenty of games in his rookie campaign, but his needs to improve his passing numbers, specifically his low completion percentage. He did make better decisions down the stretch, and the veteran Kerry Collins providing sideline help should stimulate his growth. Who knows what to expect out of the running game after the team released Travis Henry. Now they have to count on rookie Chris Henry out of Arizona along with LenDale White, who was disappointing in his lack of work ethic a year ago and who was hampered by injuries. Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade are gone at receiver and now Brandon Jones is the go to guy, but he’s been sub-par in his first two seasons. Even more unproven players fill out the receiving corps, which is tough to reason since they are trying to develop Young’s passing game. The defense was really bad last year. Now Pacman Jones will be gone, who was their only star on that side of the ball. Kyle Vanden Bosch is formidable at end, but he’s the only real force on the line. Albert Haynesworth was suspended for that dumbass foot stomp, and he needs a big year to make people forget that hes an idiot. Outside linebacker is set with David Thornton and Keith Bulluck, but the middle will have to be played more effectively than last year. Ryan Fowler was brought in from Dallas to try and fill that gap. Nick Harper was signed away from the Colts to start at corner along with Reynaldo Hill and Cortland Finnegan. Michael Griffin was the team’s first round pick, and can play either corner or safety. Chris Hope and Lamont Thompson will most likely start the season at safety.
NFC
Arizona: +3500, Offensively the team should have plenty of talent to make things happen. Matt Leinart will have had a year in the NFL, and should be ready to make a jump. Leinart is a smart guy who showed plenty of poise in his rookie campaign, and he’ll have plenty of tools at his disposal. If something happens to Leinart then Kurt Warner is his backup, and he showed he could still play last season. The team is going to run more this year and Edgerrin James is capable of carrying that kind of load. Even with the pass-first atmosphere in Arizona last year, James still amassed 1,159 yards on the ground. That number should go up under Whisenhunt. The strength of the offense is at wide receiver where the team boasts two Pro Bowl type guys in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. Boldin had 83 catches for 1203 yards last year and Fitzgerald still put up some decent number despite battling injuries for most of the campaign. There isn’t much depth at receiver so the Cards are hoping those two can remain healthy throughout the year. Defensively Arizona wasn’t very good last year, and with their offensive line needs this unit didn’t get a whole lot of help. Adrian Wilson is a Pro Bowl safety and will have his college teammate Terrance Holt joining him this season. The unit ranked 30th against the pass last year, it has nowhere to go but up.
Atlanta: +4400, The Falcons finished the 2006 season 7 -9, but were in a playoff race until the final week. An inconsistent offense and many injuries on defense were the most daunting issues of their season. Bobby Petrino was brought in from Louisville to replace Jim Mora as head coach. With him Patrino will bring a power running game and a spread offense which should should light up the Falcon offense led by Warrick Dunn who some think has lost a step as well as Ovie Mughelli a full back who was picked up as a free agent in the offseason. Mughelli is young and strong and will be that fullback that pounds it in from the 5 yard line. The Falcons put all their eggs into Michael Vick’s basket in 2007 and traded away the highly sought after backup Matt Schaub to Houston for a second round pick in 2007 and 2008. DOH!!!!! Vick’s career is in real trouble and he could be looking at jail time, He has already been suspended from training camp and will most likely miss at least the first half of the season while the investigation into his involvement in a dog fighting ring is underway. This leaves the Falcons with Joey Harrington at the reins. Harrington was basically a bust when he got drafted in the 1st round by Detroit and Bobby Petrino will have his hands full trying to restructure the offense around him. I would not expect Atlanta to go far this year.
Carolina: +2200, The team has the quarterback of the present in Jake Delhomme and the quarterback of the future in David Carr. However, if Delhomme struggles in key spots and costs the team games again this year then Carr will see some time as the starter. For Carolina to maximize it’s potential this year Delhomme needs to take Carr’s signing as a push to play at an elite level. DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams will split time in the backfield, but with how often Foster has been hurt over his career the team needs Williams to step up in his second year. Steve Smith did alright last year even though he was dealing with double teams consistently. To eliminate the double teams or at least make the opposition pay Dwayne Jarrett needs a big rookie campaign as a possession receiver and Drew Carter needs to be a downfield threat. Defensively the team was near the top of all the major categories and should be one of the best in the NFC again in 2007. All in all Carolina should look good, but they have a stigma about them now and we should have a good idea where they are going by week 8.
Chicago: +950, The story in Chicago right now is surrounding linebacker Lance Briggs and his unwillingness to play in Chicago. Stories last week even speculated that Philadelphia may trade Donovan McNabb for Briggs. All speculations aside, Chicago also split ties with running back Thomas Jones this off season. The Chicago workhorse has left the building and the team will now rely upon Cedric Benson. How will Benson handle an entire season? Can Rex Grossman lead this team? Is Chicago’s defense up for the challenge again? These are some of the questions that my friends, who are Chicago fans, ask themselves every day. Let’s look at Chicago this way. The speedster Devin Hester is back, the combination of Berrian and Muhammad can be lethal; the defense can be ruthless, and then the rest just needs to all fall into place. If Chicago can get the passing game open and allow Benson some options on the ground, yards can get covered quickly. Despite the several lackluster games and losing the Super Bowl, Grossman (if consistent) is a viable option at quarterback. He has two excellent receivers in Muhammad and Berrian, who can both play the field well. Grossman needs to become more confident in his game and learn to effectively utilize the tools around him. If Benson follows in the footsteps of Jones, he will also be a great resource for Grossman.
Dallas: +950, The Cowboys see the return of quarterback Tony Romo, along with premiere wide receivers T.O. Owens and Terry Glenn, and running back Marion Barber III.The Cowboys last year featured two serious breakout players: QB Tony Romo and RB Marion Barber. Romo – subbing for a reeling Drew Bledsoe – stepped into the 2006 Cowboys season in the second half of game seven, proceeding to throw for 227 yards and two touchdowns. After that it was off to the races, and Romo immediately morphed into the starting quarterback slot for America’s Team. All told, he threw for 19 touchdowns in 11 starts. His two top targets, Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn combined for more than 2,000 yards receiving last season in spite of the presence of quality tight end Jason Witten, who accounted for 754 receiving yards and one touchdown in, what was for him, an off-season. And Witten’s joined by TE Anthony Fasano, who could be poised for a breakout year of his own. Patrick Crayton holds down the third wide receiving position. In 2006, Glenn made 70 receptions for 1,047 yards, while Owens notched 13 touchdowns and 1,180 yards in spite of a bad finger. As for Barber, he tallied 16 touchdowns and 850 yards offense during his breakout year. He’ll share featured back status with Julius Jones, who racked up four touchdowns and 1,084 yards. Dallas is a serious threat this year, but only if Romo can bring the team together, otherwise it could be back to the drawing board for the Cowboys.
Detroit: +12000, Though fans will be interested to see just how coordinator Mike Martz plans to distribute the football in an offense that now includes wide receivers Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson, and Mike Furrey along with running backs Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell, the real key to Detroit’s season rests on the defensive side of the ball. To that end, defensive-minded head coach Rod Marinelli and his new coordinator, Joe Barry, need to pull a lot of the right strings during camp. Gone are the team’s best cover corner, Dre’ Bly (Broncos), its most recognizable safety, Terrence Holt (Cardinals), and its most consistent pass rusher, James Hall (Rams), with the pressure to step into those voids being heaped mainly on former backups or rookies. Last year’s pass rush was particularly ineffective, meaning the likes of free agent pickup Dewayne White (ex-Buccaneers) and second-round draft choice Ikaika Alama- Francis (Hawaii) will have to generate an impact. One year after setting an NFL record for fewest team rushes in a 16-game season, the Lions brought in the likes of Bell, tackle George Foster (ex-Broncos), and guard Edwin Mulitalo (ex-Ravens) to help augment the running game. Perhaps, during training camp, we’ll learn if Martz actually has any rushes in his playbook.
Green Bay: +5000, Favre is getting older, but his numbers haven’t been on that steep of a decline. He’s no Brady or Manning anymore, but he’s right below them and is still near the best in the NFC. He’s most likely going to have a back by committee running the ball with Vernand Morency, Brandon Jackson, and Noah Herron all most likely getting carries. Donald Driver is the only strong receiving threat the Packers have and he is coming off his second Pro Bowl appearance. Greg Jennings got off to a fast start before being hampered with injuries, and Green Bay thinks he can develop into a solid no. 2. Bubba Franks may be a little too old to be a difference maker anymore at the tight end position. The front line for the Packers is going to be pretty strong, with Aaron Kampman being a surprise last season with 15.5 sacks and 89 tackles at the end. In the middle Ryan Pickett and Corey Williams are both solid run-stuffers. The linebackers are young and aggressive. Nick Barnett had his best season last year and AJ Hawks led the team in tackles and showed he can be a playmaker. Brady Poppinga from BYU rounds out a talented group. The corners are led by a couple of talented veterans in Al Harris and Charles Woodson, but there are questions at safety with Nick Collins and Marquand Manuel. The defense was strong at the end of last season, they’ll have to carry that progress over to the entire 2007 if this team is going to be able to compete at all. They will have a tough enough time getting to .500 let alone the playoffs.
Minnesota: +9000, First and foremost, this has to be, on paper, the worst passing game in the NFL. Tavaras Jackson has two career starts, coming from a Division 1-AA school, in only his second year in the league. Can we trust him throwing to draft bust Troy Williamson (great offseason, supposedly, but I’ll need to see it on the field from this guy)? Bobby Wade was their big offseason addition at WR. Billy McMullen doesn’t scare anybody. I like two of their draft choices at WR: Aundrae Allison from East Carolina and Sidney Rice from South Carolina. But we all know that rookie WR’s in the NFL cannot be relied upon the same way that rookie RB’s or LB’s can be counted on – too many top prospects fall flat on their face at receiver against NFL caliber cornerbacks. So, the passing game is clearly a problem. So is the coaching staff, in my opinion. Sorry, Brad Childress defenders, this coach clearly lost his team down the stretch last year when they closed out the campaign with eight losses in their final ten games following a promising 4-2 start. I didn’t like their effort, I didn’t like their focus and I didn’t like their chemistry. There was a lot of griping and groaning in this locker room, just like there was under Mike Tice and Denny Green before him. Losing defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin to the Steelers in the offseason was huge, in a bad way, as Tomlin related to the defensive players much better than Childress did to the offensive ones. Remember, this team had the single best run defense in the NFL last year, finishing 6-10, while the team with the 32nd ranked run defense won the Super Bowl! If things go south early for the Vikes, it’s perfectly reasonable to expect another second half disaster
New Orleans: +1900, Drew Brees’s impact on the Saints last year was incredible. This guy was coming off major shoulder surgery on his throwing arm and managed to rack up 4,418 yards with 26 touchdowns and only 11 picks. He also had 41 passes of over 25 yards or more, showing just why New Orleans had the no. 1 offense in the league. The bad news is that you can’t focus on Brees alone, not with Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush in the backfield. These guys accepted their roles perfectly which led to McAllister running for 1057 yards and 10 TDs while Bush added in 656 and 6 TDs. Through the air Bush was effective too with 88 catches, 742 yards, and a pair of TDs. Hard to beat those numbers. The team has a decent group of receivers that you probably haven’t heard of. Marcus Colton is huge and was a huge surprise during his rookie season. Devery Henderson was also impressive in gaining 23.3 yards per catch. The team added Eric Johnson from the 49ers and drafted Robert Meachem in the first round, who had a monster year last season at Tennessee. This team looks to be improved on paper, but with a tougher schedule, higher expectations in the locker room, and a team that will be on everyone’s radar this season I don’t see the Saints having the same kind of success as last year.
New York Giants: +3300, The Giants are a talented team that plays in one of the NFL’s most competitive conferences. The loss of Tiki Barber means more than lost touchdowns. Barber’s 2,127 yards of total offense mean much more than just the yardage. They represent time of possession, first downs, a defense with perpetually fresh legs, and a comfortable young quarterback. They finished 2006 8-8 after blazing to a 6-2 start. Injuries to Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, LaVar Arrington, Luke Petitgout and Amani Toomer played a definite role in the nose dive. However, all NFL teams face key injuries and their ability to overcome rather than completely implode is key to late season success. This will definantly be a make or break season for Tom Coughlin. Manning has a strong arm and can loft a nice jump ball to Plaxico Burress. There are games where Manning was excellent. In 2006 he earned his only three-digit quarterback ratings in games against the Eagles, Cowboys, and Redskins – all three division rivals with tough defenses. But Manning split his series against all three, playing one game well and the second poorly. Manning must be more consistent to take even the first step toward silencing his critics and making a go at the playoffs.
Philadelphia: +2200, McNabb was putting up career-year like numbers before being lost to injury just past the middle of the season. The team didn’t want to pay Garcia to return, so Philly acquired Kelly Holcomb in the off-season to join the stable that includes AJ Feeley and Kevin Kolb. Westbrook had his best season, mainly because he was finally getting the attention he deserved. He had 1,217 yards on the ground to go with 699 yards receiving on 77 catches and has become one of the best backs in the NFC. The Eagles don’t really like to have big-name receivers, and the one time they went against that policy was the TO fiasco. Reggie Brown is as good as it gets for them with 46 receptions and 8 TDs a season ago. A couple of rookies in Hank Baskett and Jason Avant got a lot of action last year and will have big roles this year. The team signed Kevin Curtis from St. Louis to start opposite of Brown. Defensively the Eagles struggled against the rush and have most of the same players back from a year ago. The line is going to need help from Brodrick Bunkley and Mike Patterson at the tackle position in order to stop opposing runners. The ends also need to produce up to their contracts as Jevon Kearse hasn’t been himself as an Eagle, and Darren Howard didn’t do much last season. Philly brought in Takeo Spikes to shore up their linebackers, but both him and Jeremiah Trotter are on the decline. The secondary should be a strong point of the defense with corners Lito Sheppard and Sheldon Brown capable of making Pro Bowls and Brian Dawkins still able to be one of the best safeties in the league. Phillys future is really dependent on McNabb staying healthy.
San Francisco: +2600, Alex Smith was given a lot of praise last year and he did improve on his 11 picks, 1 TD rookie season. However, he only threw for 2,890 yards and had 16 picks to go with his 16 touchdowns. Plus this season he will be without Norv Turner, who many said was responsible for his growth as a quarterback. Everyone is expecting big things out of this kid this season, but we just don’t see it. Frank Gore was a stud last season in gaining 1,695 yards on only 312 carries, racking up nine touchdowns along the way. He got his big contract, so will he stay hungry? He needs to stay healthy, which may be trouble since he’s had knee surgeries in college, because there isn’t a solid backup on the team. The receiving corps was a weakness a season ago, so San Fran brought in Darrell Jackson, Ashely Lelie, and drafted Jason Hill with their third round pick. Jackson has been plagues with dropped passes and Lelie has failed everywhere he’s went. At tight end, Vernon Davis could develop into the best tight end in the game. The defense got a major overhaul and it needed one after finishing 26th in the league a season ago. Bryant Young will be starting his 14th season with the 49ers at end and brought in Aubrayo Franklin as nose tackle to help stuff the run. It’ll be a mix up who starts on the other side of Young. At linebacker there are a pair of new faces in Tully Banta-Cain from New England and Patrick Willis, their first round draft pick out of Mississippi. They’ll be paired up with Brandon Moore, who was the team leader with 92 tackles last season, and second year player Manny Lawson. The secondary got the most help with the addition of Nate Clements from Buffalo and Michael Lewis from the Eagles. Walt Harris was a Pro Bowl corner last season and Mark Roman played better than expected a year go. These four give San Francisco a decent secondary. With all the improvements I see the 49ers competing with Seattle for the top spot in the NFC West.
Seattle: +2200, Matt Hasselbeck was injured last season and never looked good in the pocket. With an off-season to regain full strength, this offense will be much improved as he has made three Pro Bowls and led this team to the Super Bowl in the past. Of course, health is important at running back as well and Shaun Alexander as it showed when he went down with injuries a year ago. He has turned 30 though and it doesn’t appear he will return to his MVP status of a couple years ago. DJ Hackett and Deion Branch will man the receiving duties, and both should have decent numbers this year. Nate Burleson was a disappointment last season, and Seattle is expecting better play out of him as well. Jeremy Stevens is gone to Tampa Bay, but Marcus Pollard is a solid pass catcher at tight end. The front four got a big boost when the Seahawks signed Patrick Kerney away from Atlanta. Having him and Marcus Tubbs up front should keep the heat off a talented group of linebackers. Julian Peterson and Lofa Tatupu are both potential Pro Bowlers who excel at the position. Leroy Hill is the other outside guy and he’ll be looking to make a name for himself after an injury plagued 2006. The secondary has been disappointing recently, but Jim Mora was hired to shore up this group. He’ll have new safeties to work with in Brian Russell and Deon Grant. The corner position had to deal with injuries a year ago, but there is talent there and Josh Wilson, the second round pick out of Maryland, will add depth. Look for Seattle to make a big run this year IF everyone stays healthy, I would expect a rematch in the playoffs between them and Dallas again.
St. Louis: +4700, Bulger had his best season at quarterback last year and stepped up as the leader of the offense. He had 4,301 yards with 24 TDs and only 8 picks. If he can stay healthy the Rams will have no problems putting points on the board. The good news is that they don’t have to rely on Bulger to carry the load as Jackson was a monster last year with 90 catches, 806 receiving yards, 16 totals touchdowns, and 1,528 yards on the ground. The only question is if he can keep up that heavy load for a consecutive season. Holt and Isaac Bruce make a formidable pair of pass catchers with both having over 1,000 yards receiving a year ago and Holt scoring 10 TDs. The team added Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael to give Bulger even more weapons, but at 35 how much does Bruce have left in the tank?Defensively the problems started up front in having the 31st ranked rush defense in the league. The team drafted Adam Carriker with their first pick to address this need, but the Rams will need La’Roi Glover to live up to his contract and Leonard Little to keep rushing the passer strong. James Hall was picked up from Detroit to give Little support on the opposite side. The team’s linebackers need the front four to keep blockers off them in order to make plays, but if the group can stay healthy it could be pretty potent. Pisa Tinoisamoa and Will Witherspoon could both be on the verge of breakout seasons. The secondary was terrible at the beginning of the year but got better as the season wore on. They will need to start out strong and stay tough all season this year or they could get sucked into the losing vacuum and never get out.
Tampa Bay: +5500, Jeff Garcia was brought in to play quarterback and he showed last year with Philadelphia that he still has what it takes to lead a playoff team. He’ll have plenty of backup too with Chris Simms and Jake Plummer, if Plummer comes out of retirement that is. Simms wasn’t all that impressive last year as a starter but showed some signs in 2005. The team is hoping to get Michael Pittman back into the offense after a down year by Cadillac Williams. The team thought Williams may put up better numbers with more spells. It’s never good when your top pass catcher is 35, but Joey Galloway had 7 TDs and 1057 yards last year. Michael Clayton looked like a star in his rookie campaign, but has been a major bust the last two years. Jerramy Stevens was signed to give Garcia a threat at tight end, but there aren’t many guys who are going to scare opposing secondaries in this group. The team addressed the defensive line in this draft by going after Gaines Adams and Arron Sears. They should get time right away as Simeon Rice seems like he’s nearing the end of a great career and Kevin Carter is even older. Chris Hovan and Ryan Simms have potential at tackle. The Bucs also have some young linebackers in Barrett Ruud and Quincy Black. Cato June was lured away from Indianapolis and should start on the opposite side of Derrick Brooks, but Brooks is entering his 13th season in the league. The 91 passer rating that opposing quarterbacks had against Tampa is a joke, as is the 11 picks and 25 sacks the team totaled. Brian Kelly and Ronde Barber both have double digit years of NFL service and both are showing signs of decline. Since winning the Superbowl back in 2003, The Bucs have been stuggling at the QB position, this year will be no different.
Washington: +4700, One year removed from delivering the Washington Redskins back to the postseason plateau, Gibbs’ team reverted to its former losing ways, finishing as the 5-11 anchor of an otherwise strong NFC East. The decision to use the inexperienced Jason Campbell was seen as a concession to the future, though ultimately, the young quarterback wasn’t among the top reasons for the Skins’ fall from grace. Supposed defensive genius Gregg Williams must have sent his mastermind on vacation, as he was at the helm of a group that did basically nothing well from Week 1 through Week 17. New offensive guru Al Saunders seemed to be grasping at straws for much of the year, succeeding only when he decided to give the football to backup running back Ladell Betts 20+ times a game. Saunders never figured out a way to get the football to his two best targets consistently, resulting in disappointing seasons for both wideout Santana Moss and tight end Chris Cooley. Gibbs’ top advisors have apparently made schematic and philosophical changes in the wake of the ‘06 debacle, which is handy, because the personnel is very much the same throughout the two-deep. There is little to suggest another renaissance is afoot in the nation’s capital, though the Hall of Fame coach has previously quieted the naysayers during his career. If Gibbs doesn’t surprise the masses, impatient team owner Daniel Snyder could end the head coach’s second era, closing what would be marked as a disappointing final chapter in the three-time Super Bowl winner’s career.
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