This Saturday, June 28th at the Mandalay Bay Casino and Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada WBC Super Featherweight Champ Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao will move up in weight class to the 135 pound lightweight division to challenge WBC Lightweight Champ David Diaz in a 10 round bout to be broadcast on HBO pay per view.  Currently the bookies have Pacquiao an overwhelming favorite at -410 (risk $410 to win $100) with Diaz a long shot at +260 (risk $100 to win $260), this may seem a little high considering that Diaz is the current champ at the lightweight division, but then again the competition at that weight class may have been a little weak.

Manny Pacquiao -410 is coming off a close split decision over Juan Manuel Marquez in which he suffered a severe cut over his right eye that many feared would not be healed in time for this bout.  Pacquiao has definantly shown that he can go the distance pound for pound with anyone and his tolerance for taking punches has been tested time again from Barrera and Marquez.  Pacman will need to rely a lot on his speed to out manuever Diaz and hope to make it a tacticle fight in which he can wear him down.  His punching power may be suspect especially against an opponent who is naturally a bigger boxer.

David Diaz +260 is no slouch himself and really should get some more respect than the odds let on, he is naturally bigger and from past experiences he looks to hit harder, while not a power puncher he still carries enough to keep Pacman at bay.  If Diaz can control himself and defend against Pacquiao’s hand speed he can stun him enough to work in the combos that he will most likely need to have a chance to defend his title.

My Pick:  Both fighters need to make this a tacticle fight, Diaz needs to be calculating and in control to avoid the flurry of combos and jabs that Pacquiao will throw his way and Pacman will need to use caution to avoid catching a hard right which has been known to make him buckle.  If the fight goes the distance then Pacquiao will no doubt win based soley on the punch count, but if Daiz can hurt him early and contiue the pressure I like his chances. With the spread so high on Pacman I cannot advocate taking the favorite, chances are he will win, but one punch could change all of that so if you must beat a winner then take Diaz for a $20 fun buck bet, what I really like is the over 9.5 rounds -140, its not high enough to get over exposed and the odds are good it will come in. Take the over!

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