The big game is finally here and on February 1st in Tampa Bay, Superbowl XLIII goes down.  It is a match up between the Cinderella Arizona Cardinals led by the ageless Kurt Warner versus the storied Pittsburgh Steelers who behind a top rated defense are looking for their second championship in 4 years.  Below is the current Superbowl XLIII betting spread along with my pick and links to all the Superbowl betting lines being offered:

SUPERBOWL XLIII

6:00 PM ET, February 01, 2009
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
NBC

Pittsburgh Steelers   Spread  -7     o/u Total  46.5     -270(risk $270 to win $100)
Arizona Cardinals

My Pick: Not alot of people thought the Cards could get it done seeing as how they slacked off at the end of the regular season and acted like just making the playoffs was enough of an accomplishment.  All of those doubts have been wiped away as the Cards went a run these past 3 weeks being the underdog in every matchup including 2 home games.  The ageless wonder Kurt Warner has proven that he can lead this team to victory as he did with the Rams and with Fitzgerald and Boldin as his main targets I expect to see some big numbers put up.  Tim Hightower and Edge James will most likely split carries which seems to be working for them, but they will be facing one of the toughest D lines in the league so if they don’t step it up (which I don’t think they will)  then Warner is going to have to shoulder the burden and get it done in the air.  The biggest concern for the Cardinals is their defense which during the regular season was continually ranked in the high 20’s and gives up alot of points.  They will have to clamp down on Willie Parker and keep pressure on Big Ben who has been known to serve up more than a few turnovers when under constant pressure and the AZ defense seems to be up to the task as they have recovered 12 turnovers in the last 3 games.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see head coach Ken Whisenhunt mix it up with a few trick plays and keep things interesting, but they should stick to their same game plan which is big plays in the air supplemented by a ground and pound run game.

The Steelers are always a threat to be Superbowl bound and 2nd year head coach Mike Tomlin has certainly proven he was the right choice to replace Bill Cowher.  The Steelers are going to keep doing the same thing they have been doing all year.  Give it to Parker and let him run with the rock to set it up for Ward or Holmes on the deep route.  It is a very simple and effective strategy that should work pretty well on an Arizona D that gives up alot of points and despite their recent fortune in the turnover department are going to have their hands full with the tandom of Parker and Moore who should be healthy by game time.  The way that the Cardinal secondary got burned on deep routes means that Holmes is licking his chops as his speed will definitely be a factor and AZ has no one to cover him.  The defense led by Polamalu will keep the pressure on Warner with a plethera (big word, I know.) of blitz packages.  Did you see how many times Warner ate turf last Sunday? It was hard to watch at times…  I like the matchup between the Steelers secondary and the Cardinal receivers, but I actually think the AZ WR’s have a slight advantage which should only make the game that much better.

Here’s the thing, the Steelers had the toughest schedule in football this year and here they are with a top rated defense and an offense that gets the job done.  They have alot of the same personel as they did 4 years ago when they won so their experience is invaluable to the rest of the team.  The Cardinals are the Cinderella team of the NFL and this is their first appearance in the big show, but remember they play out of the NFC West which was the weakest division this year.  Despite the fact that Kurt Warner has been around this block already, you can’t expect him to be able to carry an entire team.  On paper the spread looks low at -7 and officially, Pittsburgh is the play, but by no means do I think that the Cardinals are just going to lay down and take it and you can expect them to put up a fight to the end.

I would like to see the Cardinals win because it would be good for the NFL in general, but whats right is right and Pittsburgh -7 is just right…

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